Documenting the Journey From Bluecollar Guy Doing a Bluecollar Job to Trading the Markets for a Living
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
MARCH RECAP
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Gain: $18.40 per share, net of commissions
Trades: 194 for 266; 73% winners
Ave Gain per day traded: $1.08 per share
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Days traded in March: 17 days out of 22; 77%
Days traded with a gain: 15 days of 17; 88%
Days traded with a loss: 2 days of 17; 12%
Largest daily loss: -$4.19 on March 31st
Smallest daily loss: -$1.97 per share on March 2nd
Largest daily gain: $4.22 on March 16th. Also, the most active day.
Smallest daily gain: $ .04 on March 10th.
Most active day: 33 for 47, March 16th. (the biggest daily gain in March)
Least active day: 2 for 2; March 4th.
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Notable: The first and last days of the month were the only losing days.
March 31st
The ups, also known as the good news, are that without the bad trade, I was 13 for 17, a 76% win rate; a $1.52 per share gain. Of that, I was 7 of 9 for a gain of 89 cents per share AFTER the trade from hell. So, that was a good way to finish the day. But. all in all, I'd like to have finished the month on a winning note, but it was not to be. I will re-cap the month on a separate post once I run the tape on it.
13 for 19, a 68% win rate; -$4.19 cents per share loss.
Monday, March 30, 2009
March 30th
Sunday, March 29, 2009
thought...
Friday, March 27, 2009
March 27th
The rest of the day was quite fun and I was in early on a number of nice moves but bailed early; decent gains but fairly small ppercentages of the entire move. This is something I must fix but it is a great problem to have, as problems go; I won't beat myself up too badly. I just looked over at my SKF chart as I'm typing and saw a great entry... at the 3:00 pm candle, but I am done for the day. Yup, over a dollar per share available so far on that move... it appears I quit too soon!
13 for 19 winners; a 68% success rate. $2.62 per share gain.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
March 25th
6 for 6 winners for a 100% success rate. Gain of $1.65 per share.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
March 24th
Monday, March 23, 2009
March 23
Friday, March 20, 2009
March 20th
One thing is certain, I am feeling more comfortable trading in this style. I am trying to refine my entries and exits, managing risk, and focused on selectivity instead of the frenetic click and hope of last week. While my gains are not as strong, my panic factor is deeply reduced! I'd rather pick up 75-80 cents per share on 8 trades than a bit more gain on 25 trades and be white-knuckling all day. I find that for the most part, I am getting very decent, early entries on nice moves. I am selling them much too soon, however. e.g. my long on the SKF chart at 3:36 pm. I was in at $124.76 (green line on chart) and sold at $125.11 (red line) for a gain of about 33 cents per share. When you see the move that followed however, you'll see what I mean by bailing out early. On the three-minute chart, it went up 4 continuous green candles to a high of $129.38; a full $4.27 per share more than what I took from it. I got only 7 % of the entire move after going long a scant 31 cents above the bottom. Talk about impatient....
I can't complain though. I took a gain for that trade and for the day.
A good week-end to all! Spring began today and the snow is disappearing here in Maine. A rebirth is just a whisker of time away!
5 for 6 winners, an 83 % win rate. Gain of $1.03 per share.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
March 19th
One move I made today was new to me and that is getting the "breaking news bulletin" off CNBC that the Gov't was to offer money for the auto parts suppliers. Thanks to moving a tv into my office last week-end, I am able to catch some of these headlines. After the news, I thought immediately to punch up AXL on the Quotetracker and prepare a trade. I was so early that I actually saw AXL at rest and then watched it take off. More interested in watching than trading that first move, I did get a short on the first reversal. Then I watched the action which followed. That was pretty much the highlight of the day for me, even though it was not the most profitable trade of the day. My two losing trades today were because of very poor fills on trades which were solidly profitable when I clicked the mouse. This is evidenced by the dollar amounts: -$8 and -$15, essentially flat trades if you don't factor in the commissions.
Today's paper-trades took place between 9:45am and 1:45pm on three stocks; GS, SKF, and AXL.
5 for 7 winners for a 71% win rate. 71 cents per share gain.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
March 18th - Fed Announcemnet Day
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
March 17th - Erin Go Bragh!
I really felt like I was struggling today. Same issue as yesterday. I got on the wrong side of large moves, anticipating reversals.. which didn't show up in a timely way! Between 12:20 and 2:04 pm, I was 4 for 11, only a 36% win rate; losing about 98 cents per share. Clearly, I have to figure this out as it is a pattern I'm in and have been since I started trading the high-ADR ETF's. Let's face it, losses are part of trading. And while I've only had one losing day in March thus far, I absolutely MUST figure this problem out in order to become a consistently profitable trader. The big losses I had in February with this "dysfunction" are just around the corner despite some recent success. There are two approaches I could take here. Accept the fact that I can be wrong on an entry, learn how to recognize it faster and cut losses short (perhaps even reverse direction), OR... try to perfect my entries to the point where very few big losses can occur! The problem with the latter solution is that it is akin to "picking intra-day tops and bottoms;" generally considered nearly impossible.
Perhaps there is a combination of the two which will work for me as I paper-trade. Meanwhile, I'm off to drink the nectar of the Gods... Guiness Extra Stout!
10 for 17 trades, a 59% success rate. Gain of 89.8 cents per share.
Thought for the Day
Monday, March 16, 2009
March 16th
It was an up and down day for me in terms of energy and success. Luckily, my up was greater than my down! Started strong and kept up a nice success rate from the Open through 1:50 pm, going 26 for 30 winners. Should have quit there!!! I then proceeded to go 7 for 17 while dumping a bunch of my gains. I really got tired and two back-to-back losses at 3:03 and 3:04pm were inadvertant clicks on the wrong stock! First I clicked a buy on GS but meant to click SKF which gave me a loss on what should have been a gain and the next, I meant to long GS but clicked SKF. This should have been a clue to take a break. The one thing that caught my eye while prepping the screen shot and this summary was that my run of bad trades coincided quite closely with the intense run-up of SKF (and drop of GS which I was playing as it's inverse because I still couldn't short the SKF). I have noted before that I have trouble when the move is big and all one-sided over a longer intra-day timeframe. My recent gains over the past few days have been in picking reversals. The end of day move today was a very hard time to play for reversals, with the energy decidedly in one direction. I really must start thinking longer term on some of these moves. The questions is, how do I recognize a longer move before it happens!? I'll be working on trying to figure it out. Sadly, if I had placed a trade at 1:50pm on SKF and sold at close, it would have given me $17.75 per share in gains instead of the loss I incurred; $2.44 cents per share loss over the same time frame!
33 for 47 in trades, 70% win rate. Gain of $4.22 per share.
Friday, March 13, 2009
March 13th
Thursday, March 12, 2009
March 12th
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
On humility as a trader...
That's a one trade yield of $ 39 per share gain and an $85.61 yield with a 7 trade day.
Now you tell me that isn't a humbling thought. I certainly have a long way to go...
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
March 10th
Monday, March 9, 2009
A Response...
1. I search for patterns of behavior over many successive time periods
2. I try to correlate, in two ways, unusual volume levels with what the price is doing at the same
time
a. Real Time- gives me a feel for velocity of movement and how that affects one's ability
to scalp the move of a given candle.
b. In Review- check candles after time has passed in order to get a feel for how the unusual
volume level affected the longer -term, multi-candle move. Did the volume indicate a
change of direction in price?
3. Technical Analysis priniples apply and I look for stalls at or breaks through support and
resistance for higher probablility entries. Also look for breaks from consolidation areas.
4. I try to think of what is actually happening to the buyers and sellersof the shares as the price
rises and falls. This is new to me as I always saw candles and volume as bars moving on the
screen. By attributing the moves on the screen to the interaction of men and women
actually trading shares, I helps me develop a clearer picture of what is really happening.
What of situations where many shares trade but price does not vary? and what of big price
swings on minimal volume? What are the folks trading shares thinking?
5. Price Follows Volume - ...but, volume levels vary throughout the trading day. In the mid-
day, nice price moves are carried on lower volume levels as compared to the open. I try to
evaluate the affect of volume on a price move within the context of the time of day in which it
happens.
6. I also found that one should "Beware the Ultra-low Volume Candle" as a possible signal of
reversal. eg. See todays SKF chart and look at the 11:42 timeframe as well as the 11:57 and
12:57.... take a look at what follows!
7. Very high levels of volume seem to be imply potential of reversal. eg. See SKF on todays 3-minute chart. Look at the 10:18 am candle. High volume reversal with a long-candle body opens and closes near the end of the price range for that 3-min time period. Appears to be very bullish. Then see that volume declines through 10:24 am but then ramps up again. Profit taking happens at the 10:30 am candle on strong volume but the move up continues! But, look at volume level at 10:36... High volume big price range (wicks/shadows) but the close price is very low to the bottom of the range. Momentum may be shifting. High volume, weak price action, maybe a reversal? (also, beware the false positive) Look at the next two candles 10:39 and 10:42. There's the reversal, and one with a decent measure of conviction by the level of volume indicated as compared to the volume which follows. In fact, the 10:42 volume of 191,000 was the highest through to 1:00 pm when I took the notes for this post. Look at the volume of the candle at 1:06 and what follows it.
Friday, March 6, 2009
March 6th
I really liked this so I thought I'd throw it in...
Friday, March 06, 2009
Panic
Fear cannot be banished, but it can be calm and without panic; it can be mitigated by reason and evaluation. ~Vannevar Bush
Posted by Brian at 3/06/2009 05:50:00 AM
Labels: quotes
Thursday, March 5, 2009
March 5th
Wow, that was some session. Talk about the market vomiting all over itself!
I had some early success, trying to focus on riding the momo train and not trying to predict reversals. It seemed to work ok. I found some trouble thereafter, I was taking Day-job calls, not being attentive, and damn but I didn't try for a reversal where I hadn't confirmed one. It really is a dysfunction with me. I had to do some day-job reports so much of the afternoon was spent with the IB off. Toward the end of day, once I signed back on, I focused on NOT calling revesals and tried to focus on playing what I actually was seeing, not what I was guessing was going to happen. This seemed to help and I made a recovery, finishing ok.
Same thing today though. I am drawn to predicting reversals on strong moves. I do not let my winners run. But, as I've mentioned before, these are patterns and with enough work, I feel I can correct them. We'll see.
Not that I didn't know it already, but I am definitely not a natural born trader. I'm going to have to really work at it.
9 for 12 winners, 75% success rate. Net gain of $1.01 per share.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
March 4th
missed the chance to participate in the huge morning run up of SKF. But I watched and waited to identify the end of the run. Now, I knew the run up would end, as they do in any given day...stocks don't go forever. I had to balance that knowledge with my penchant for calling tops and bottoms where they ain't; a problem I've identified and outlined in prior posts. I watched the 10:21 red candle and the 10:24 red candle. It felt like the reversal was confirmed and I shorted at 10:25. I covered at 10:26 for about 46 cents per share. I decided to try to catch another down move 15 secoinds later with the realization that I covered too soon on what should be a much lower drop off such large morning run-up. But, I didn't see much movement and covered basically even on the trade. With the day job appt coming up, I decided to bow out and watch while I prepared for my appt. Well, after two small green candles at 10:30 and 10:33, my sizable drop took place. This is the one I wanted and thought I'd get. It's just that I haven't learned to trust my gut on these reversals yet. I simply don't have the experience. At this moment, as I prepare to go out the door, the larger down move in SKF continues; at $203.30, it is a full $8.48 per share lower than my initial short... and still retreating...
2 wins out of 2 trades, 100% success rate. 46 cents per sahre gain.