August 18th

It's been a nice break and I had a chance to get back to the blog today. I paper-traded last Thursday, August 13th and did 13 for 13 for a $295 gain, although it was mostly a scalp-fest and not really trading in trend. I didn't trade on Friday the 14th. Yesterday, I was 2 for 4 in the live account and was down, -$27. I've been less concerned about the blog of late. Just trying to prioritize...
-
I let two stops go too long today; one for $150 and one for $100. I also had one trading error , clicking sell instead of buy to cover... leading to a $50 loss. It wasn't bad other than that. I have been starting over in a sense. I must learn entry signals other than the one I had been using, so I have been back to the basics of chart set-ups, etc. Trying to study and understand them in association with volume and momentum. I'm less concerned now with the overall chart or on what the current price per share may be. I am paying close attention to the "pulsation" of price levels, especially on movement as the price approaches critical areas; S & R, moving average lines, trend lines. At the same time, I have taken to watching the time & sales window as well as level II which is very new to me and doesn't quite make sense after only a few days. I am seeing patterns of movement so that is encouraging. If anyone knows of a detailed primer on reading and interpreting level II and/or Time & Sales, as they affect price movement, please leave me a comment. I am especially looking for free web-based material but am interested to hear of other sources as well.
-
9 for 15, a 60% win rate. Loss of $17 in 5 hours of paper-trading primarily because of two excessive stop-losses and one trading error.

Barriers to Entry

I have often thought about how few credible trader education sources there are. Yes, a few good books and some very good blogs but very few hands-on sources.
This "art" reminds me of how knowledge used to be passed on... monks diligently spending their lives copying text by hand, in monasteries far away from the masses. It's no surprise that I am not the only one who has thought about it. I found this August 9th post by Dr Brett Steenbarger on his blog, www.traderfeed.blogspot.com.


The Dynamics of Trading Success
It is unusual for elite levels of performance in any field to develop in isolation. Most often, success develops in what I call "performance incubators": structured situations that build skills over time through frequent practice and performance. For example, college basketball serves as an incubator for professional talent; the academies run by tennis pros serve as incubators for the pro tennis circuit; amateur and regional theaters incubate talent for Hollywood and Broadway; chess clubs incubate talent for national and international tournaments; minor leagues and college teams in baseball incubate major league talent; etc.

This post on "What Makes an Expert?"( http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/01/what-makes-expert-three-surprising.html ) helps to explain why so many traders do not reach their full potential. Without structured incubation, it is difficult for skills to develop over time. Three years of experience become one year repeated three times over, not a cumulative learning experience.

Perhaps this is why research finds that so few active traders achieve consist success. ( http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/01/how-common-is-elite-talent-among-day.html ) How many surgeons would be successful structuring their own training? How many pianists? Gymnasts?

Many "trader education" offerings are not efforts at incubation. How do we know this? They lack developed curricula. Successful incubators start with basic skills and develop more refined ones. Most educational efforts in trading are not training efforts in this sense. (See this post ( http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/02/from-trader-education-to-trader.html ) for what a trading curriculum might look like). Indeed, it is difficult to think of successful incubation efforts in various performance fields that do not last for years of regular training before formal, professional performance commences.

How many traders have undergone such rigorous training? Might that help to explain why so few successful traders remain successful over time? Without developed skills across a range of market conditions, it would be difficult to adjust to shifting markets.

The sad truth is that few traders could afford to devote years to perfecting their craft; few educators have undergone development themselves to know how to structure a proper program of training. It's a shame; any trading firm that mastered incubation would ensure its successful future. Which is one reason why certain investment banks, which do structure their training and mentorship processes, remain at the top of their profession.

August 12th - No trades

No Trades today or yesterday the 11th. Day job has been very active and I'm thankful. The work I do is negatively affected by bad weather conditions and June and July were two of the wettest months on record. Needless to say, trading will not be paying the bills anytime soon and as much as I dislike my current work situation, it has for nearly 19 years provided a solid middle class lifestyle. I really have been thinking lately of how good my life is and how grateful I am for what I have.
Getting ahead means constantly looking ahead, pressing harder for that next goal. However, it is important to look back and recognize where I am in relation to where I've been and where others who are less fortunate may be. Life can't always be about getting to the next rung on the ladder. Sometimes it is simply enough to stay still for a while and look around.
-
I have for nearly 8 months been focused on, and at times obsessed with trading for a living. For some of that period, I have treated trading like it WAS my job, even though it paid me nothing. I had goals, you see. I was on a mission: a change of careers, relieving my wife of the doldrums of her job, saving a family member who is near retirement and could use a bit of help with retirement funds. Lots of good intentions. And, because I had these purely good intentions, I was going to be successful on my own terms; on my own timeline. Never mind the markets! Never mind my inexperience! I was skipper of this ship and I was charting my own course. Well, the market had other ideas. I took a large loss last month and it was a wake-up call. It wasn't really the money... it was within the boundaries and wouldn't crush me financially. What was so difficult about it was the realization that what I had been working on for most of the year, my method, was flawed and inherently destined for failure. I was making plans... plans that had gone to hell with one bad day. The plans, as well as the method of trading, were scrapped and while I am not back at square one, I have descended the ladder many rungs. So, that is where I am now. Many rungs lower and in many ways, starting over.
The last two days have been a great break. No trading, no time in front of the markets. Just the blue-collar work that I know all too well. When I first started in business, it was nerve-wracking with so much uncertainty, so much stress. Now, it is a respite from the stress. It is familiar and requires no thought. I really could do all facets of it in my sleep. And while I have been away from trading for three of the past four sessions, it has not been out of my thoughts. I have been evaluating my trading skills, such as they are. For some time, I have been aware of a number of weaknesses and have noticed others in the past few days. I have thought of my strengths and how to use them differently. In all ways, this break has been good. Since July 23rd and my large loss, I have had 9 winning days out of 10. Small gains... cautious while I try to acclimate to trading without adding to losers to compensate for bad entries. I guess 9 of 10 is a good place to stop for a little while.
-
I have ordered a new trading book from Amazon and am searching the web for details about entry signals. I have printed a couple articles from tradingmarkets.com and have been reading them over and over. I go through the chart formations in my head as I work my day-job. I think about FNG charts and the ideals put forth there.
One of the two primary weaknesses I have noticed lately is that I do not look for/recognize good entry set-ups. I have been a one-trick pony these past months. Always looking for the high-volume reversal as an entry. So much have I relied on it that I will often watch a nice trend pass me by in anticipation of seeing that move I know best. Well, I'm tired of that. I want to start using that high-probablility sign of reversal as an exit spot instead.
My second weakness actually came to me as Mrs Bluecollar and I discussed trading. She has asked me more than once why I don't just click buy when the markets are going up and click sell when the markets are dropping? I tried to explain to her that it isn't that easy. But, then I thought about the fact that I do often watch good trends pass me by, as I mentioned above. She is very much a "see-do" person. (insert your own personal watercraft joke here). I am mostly a "see-, think, evaluate, consider the many possibilities, measure the risk, -do " person. It's time to break out of the mold and trade what is in front of me now, not what might happen some time later. It's time to stop thinking my way out of good trades. To trade the tape in the momentum style, I will eventually have to act more on instinct than reason.
She and I are going to collaborate for a day of sim-trading during her upcoming vacation. I am confident it will be great for my training.
-
Day-job is busy through this week and much of next week is also booked. And it couldn't have come at a better time, for so many reasons. I am grateful for what I have, no matter how badly I want change...
-
I wish you all profitable trading: for gains and for knowledge.