"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

What's Familiar? - Sept 8th


I use "What's Familiar?" as a way to remind me of the common behaviors of stocks and how I hope to someday use them to trade many of the movements profitably, perhaps even in succession.
Two charts of AIG from yesterday, the one on the left is unmarked for comparison:
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The yellow lines indicate dojis, near dojis, or candles where the open to close price range is tight in comparison to the high to low price range. Each is a precursor to a move in the opposite direction. Are all playable? Perhaps, if you are very sharp with entries and exits. The smallest of the moves off this indicator is 25 cents (measured from the close price of the indicator candle to the far point of the move it telegraphs). Some are small moves as part of the larger overall trend and may not be candidates for trading; the 9:50 and 9:55 am candles, for example.
The one magenta line at 3:10 pm is a false signal, of sorts. It did predict a move to the upside but it was a fake-out and likely would have resulted in a stop-out.
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The white "triangle" lines indicate the high and low points of a playable move where one end of the candle met the 17 EMA and retreated. Only one, the 2:20pm to 2:30 pm, did so on the top side of the moving average, reflecting the overall bearishness of AIG on the day.
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The short horizontal white lines and the thin vertical line below it indicate reversals off high volume spikes relative to the time of day in which they happen. Note that many of these correspond to the doji areas (yellow lines). I now notice one which I didn't mark on the chart: see the 11:05 am candle and the volume below it. It is immediately followed by a reversal doji-like candle marked by the yellow line.
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Patterns, patterns patterns...

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Sept 8th



11 days since my last trade. I got into the market at 3:15 pm so trend wasn't on my mind. I didn't just "jump in," but rather watched and tried to pick a safe spot for a trade rather than push the envelope. I got that chance in AIG at the 3:20 candle, playing the reversal off the high volume, big price move down as the 2:30pm to 3:20pm trend finished with a "bang." I jumped out of my paper-trade too early but I was here just to scalp anyway, still acclimating myself to the new trading ideas from the Robert Deel book.
Still, it was a positive paper-trade...
Over the next few weeks I look forward to paying more attention to the 7 and 17 EMA's and how price trends interact with them.
Eleven days away from the market seems even longer because I was on a motorcycle in very rural settings; without cable tv or internet for the days the market was open. It seems like a very, very long break and it was a good one. I feel a little rusty so I'll take it slow this week when I can break away from the day-job.




Monday, August 31, 2009

What's Familiar

In the What's Familiar theme I have been on for a week or so, I present FSLR from last Friday, Aug 21st.
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The chart on the left is clean for comparison. The chart on the right shows some common signals I am looking for to further my understanding of high-ADR stock behavior. The bold white horizontal lines are the reversal points of the major trends of the day.
First, I look for the big momo candles which end at the high or low of the candle as an indicator of reversal. The white arrows are two examples of this... further, each reversal was accompanied by a gap-up.
Second, precursors to break up or break down: The magenta colored lines with a white "X" (also the two white lines pointing to 11:05&11:10; I forgot to change the color to magenta) in the chart indicate a doji, a hammer, or a wide price range candle with a relatively small open/close range.
Third, my old favorite, the high volume spike and my new favorite, the low-volume indicator. These are marked by the thin white lines dropping down to the corresponding volume level (some of which are marked in the volume area by the white "X".
As I look at the chart now, I see more of these signals which I did not mark.
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I'm closing this down and not trading today. The weather is fine and I am going to wax the Harley! Then, it is "Downeast" Maine and hopefully Canada!
Best to you all for a good week!