"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

October 5th - Tuesday


As it turns out, I wasn't able to sign on to the computer until after 3:30 pm so my time with the markets was limited. TNA is the chart which comes up when I log into QuoteTracker so I usually just focus on that. The markets had a nice trend day so I was looking to capitalize on a drop at the EOD. In the last 5 minutes of the trading session, I felt a small breakdown was in the making so I took a paper-trade short with about 4 minutes remaining. Price dropped away from my entry spot nicely but wasn't moving fast enough for my liking, with only three minutes or so before the close. Bid/Ask was really "squirrely" and I didn't get the best fill price when I covered, yielding only $40 paper-bucks. With two and a half minutes left, I watched the chart to see if my "gut" feeling was correct about a break in price. I was happy to see that my reading of the price action was a good one when price dropped continuously into the close.
A one-minute chart shows that buying increased as price dropped during the 3:58 and 3:59 timeframes, indicated by candles with open/close price in the top half of each candle and long lower wicks. The last minute of the day was different though... sellers ate up the buyers and price dropped with more conviction into the closing bell.
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Recently, I have been trying to think of price movement in terms of what buyers and sellers are doing and thinking rather than as just spots on a chart or candle. I don't know if I am correct in my analysis as I'm doing it but I believe it is going to be helpful in the long run. Don Miller does this, thinking about "who is stuck" at certain price levels in the day. If a stock chart is just a picture of human behavior expressed as prices in a stock, then I think this approach will pay dividends down the road.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

October 4th - Monday


I didn't get to put this chart and paper-trade record on the blog last night after market close. Between day-job appointments, I had about 20 minutes at the office around lunch time to look at the markets. I found TNA near the bottom of a long move down and decided to take a long trade where I thought appropriate. I held through a slight drop in the following candle, saw some movement in a positive direction in the next candle, then a pop up. Shortly after the trade went positive for me, I added to it. A slowing of momo in conjunction with having to be at my next day-job appointment at noon suggested that I should exit. I scaled out for two winners.
Because of day-job, I might not get to practice-trade today. I'll see how the schedule breaks down as the day goes on.

Friday, October 1, 2010

October 1st


Today was a real treat for me as I had a chance to watch the markets from 10:00 am until the close. This used to happen a lot in 2009 but not so much anymore. I loved it... At times I just made marks on the charts where I thought things would move along with thoughts about where the market might go.

I paper-traded with TNA looking to take advantage of consolidation breaks as well as paying special attention to S/R levels. Also, used the high likelihood of markets to close gaps in my early evaluation of the markets; something I've paid closer attention to since discovering http://www.coiledmarkets.com/ .

Also, I have found that Adam's blog at SMB Trading ( http://www.smbtraining.com/ ) has been very helpful in understanding technical analysis as it is put in practice. More specifically, this post was interesting and I saved it to my favorites list:
http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/one-of-my-favorite-plays

And of course, no day is complete without reviewing Scott Farnham's many posts at http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/ .

On days like today, it feels to me like the shades are parting and the light is beginning to shine in. I have faith that it will continue, with the proper effort and attention. When, I don't know? But it will. Without faith, we have nothing.