"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Thursday, May 23, 2013

A re-post from Feb 1, 2012


Trading is mental

Having read and re-read Michael Martin's "The Inner Voice of Trading" over the past month, I am finding some relief when it comes to the self awareness necessary to be a successful trader.
I have taken to spending quiet time reflecting on the WHY that compels me to make bad trading decisions and where they truly originate. I reinstituted exercise into my day by walking about two to two and a half miles per day back in early November and moved to the treadmill in the cellar after the Maine winter arrived. With bad knees, I can no longer run, so I stick to walking and it gives me time to relax and think about the WHY. I've thrown in some strength training over the past two weeks and I feel better for it. Mostly, I am in this for mental dialysis and exercise second. Thirdly, my ability to stick to the regimen will reflect whether or not I have achieved the same discipline necessary to stick to proper trading fundamentals. Mrs. Bluecollar bought me two relaxation CD's that encorporate breathing exercises, muscle relaxation, positive affirmations, and calming music. I play them while I use the treadmill and am now in my second day of it. It is true that anxiety, stress, and fear are near the top of the list of reasons for trader failure.
As part of this whole thing, I am digging deep into my past and evaluating my life and the influence of those with whom I've encountered and the impressions that were left on me as a result.
I have also picked out some articles from Dr Andrew Menaker's blog at his website as part of my quest to become a trader: http://www.andrewmenaker.com/

I hope you get something from this one from March 29, 2011 entitled "Handling Uncertainty."

Handling Uncertainty 

March 29th, 2011 
Everyone talks about uncertainty, and many of you realize that the only thing that is certain in trading is uncertainty. The problem is that most people understand it on an intellectual level (“yeah, I think in probabilities”), but in reality, where the rubber meets the road, most traders don’t really accept uncertainty.

How do you know when you’ve truly accepted uncertainty? You’ll know, when you’ve embraced the randomness of probability (each trade or individual data point is a unique occurrence with a 50/50 chance, even in a skewed probability distribution). When you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you’ll notice one of or more of the following also occur; you won’t be thinking or worrying about it as much, you won’t be doing as much ‘mental P&L accounting’; and the symptoms of tick-itis will also remit.

I coach clients to not be attached to the outcome as one particular strategy to deal with uncertainty. And the good news is that when you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you also begin to create a positive feedback loop where realizing that its not worth being emotionally attached to any one trade, or even a series of trades; making it even easier to embrace the uncertainty. Non-attachment to outcomes helps one deal with uncertainty, and embracing uncertainty reinforces non-attachment to outcomes. That’s how it works, folks.

Think about this question for a moment:

When you put money in a slot machine and you lose, how do you feel? Most people don’t feel that bad. But when you bet your money on a trade and you lose, how do you feel? Most traders say they feel upset, angry, frustrated, ripped-off, even betrayed (betrayed by the market, betrayed by their method, or betrayed by the person who taught them the method).

So, what’s the difference between the slot machine and trading? In slots, there is no judgment or ego involved (the need to be right is greatly diminished). However, in trading it is 100% judgment (you might be ‘wrong’). In a trade, our ego, our judgment, our sense of self-worth and even our personal status in the eyes of others (e.g. trading partners, family, etc.) is susceptible to feeling assaulted for each tick away from our intended target. But in slots we become a robot. Go to a casino and walk by the slot machines; everyone is glazed over, practically in a hypnotic state as they automatically (brainlessly as my wife puts it) dump more coins into the machine, pressing the lever and not getting very upset for lack of a pay-out. No judgment is on the line, there is no possibility of being wrong….the slot player recognizes the situation for what it is, pure unadulterated randomness.

Trading is not random, but you must fully accept, beyond intellectual understanding, the randomness of probability.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

May 22 ($1,117.21 Loss)

10:33   The market soared and it gave me a great opportunity to improve my TZA swing trade.  I bought 1500 shares long TNA at 10:14 am at a price of $29.59.  I really nailed the entry, just a few pennies from the bottom of the big move down.  Added to my 200 shares long, I had a total 1700 shares long at $29.75.  I sold off 500 shares of risk for a $10.59 loss.  Then holding, I dumped the other 1200 shares at 29.80 for a gain of $65.99.  Far too early, but I will take my gains when I can, given how my original TZA position went against me this morning.  That market gave me a good chance to exit and I took it quickly and willingly.  had I held the 1200 shares, I had up to about 47 cents of total gain; approximately $565.
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3:48   I am still very much a prisoner to emotion.  Today has been particularly difficult for me as my compulsion to play for mean reversion has resulted in a bad loss.  I am essentially back to where I started a few months ago, having lost my gains and back to breakeven.  Not at all where I hoped to be, given that I am at a point where I really need to have gains from trading to sustain our household.  After all this time, and all that i know about chart reading, it is mental/emotional short-comings that are an anchor to my progression.  I took a number of 'practice trades' where I would mark the chart in the direction of momentum.   Every one of them was a winner.    Instead of taking the trade, I waited until I found an area that looked as though a direction change was to occur, and on a big momentum day, the change doesn't come.  And today, I added to a loser trade and got punished for it.  I know better.  I know that doing that very thing, as I've mentioned on this blog, is what strong market players feast upon.  That the only protection from the sharks is to stop out.  And I didn't.  This is purely emotional.  Either fear or greed; one or the other. It appears that I'll finish the day with a loss of $1,117.21.
Something must change for me to continue.  I am not a fool.  But I am imprisoned by a psychological wall.  They are two different things.  But they will be synonymous and yield the same disastrous results if a change isn't made and I keep on the way I am going.
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The approach I am taking to trading, fading strong moves with an eye toward reversion to the mean, is a very stressful way to do this.  Always looking for a direction change means always being uneasy; in a state of flux.  And not stopping out a trade is incredibly stressful, depleting one's emotional capital.  It relegates one to always playing from behind.  It does not allow the sense of success to offset the sense of disappointment from the losing trades that always happen.  It is always trading with anxiety.  It is incredibly wearing on the psyche, even when it is going well.  Like parachuting with no backup chute or walking a tightrope with no net below, only the most hardened non-feeling individuals (sociopaths?) can resist the chipping away at one's emotional capital.
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Last year, while still practice trading, I had hit the wall as I have today and decided to throw caution to the wind, so to speak.  As strange and anti-intellectual as it sounds this involved setting and adhering to stops and not exiting trades except as a stop-out or within 15 minutes of the end of the trading day.  Weird, it seemed to me.  And it resulted in a great relief; a sense of 'comfort' that I had not felt before.  And I achieved some success while doing it.  Gains were of a size I had not seen since attempting to learn trading.  At that time, I still needed work in chart reading, so my stop outs were adding up more than I liked, but I was ahead while trading the way it is supposed to be done.  In other words, on the right path to success.  What happened to change it is something I don't know.  It was a slow drift away.  Like an alcoholic taking just one sip of beer after having found sobriety.  One little drink after a year then becomes two drinks per week then a drink every other day, then...
The power of the mind to fall back into bad habits is legendary.  We all know people who cannot help themselves even when the answers seem so obvious... and easy for us.  I have to get back to that mental place where I was last year that sent me to try and briefly succeed in trading the right way.  Otherwise, I will have to give up on my dream.
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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

May 21 ( Gain $132.11 )

I was somewhat surprised when TNA rose at the open, and doubtful it was real?!
I held my TNA short that I put on late in the session yesterday.
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10:33    Covered 500 shares of TNA at 50.47   Gain $91.07.  Still holding my 200 shares long TZA which is down only $37 at the present time.
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1:08     Shorted 500 TNA at 51.38.  Covered about 5 minutes later at 51.29 for a 41.04 gain.
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1:40    The 51.21 support seems to be holding well on TNA; four out of the last seven candles have bounced off it.
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1:46   TNA broke support.  My gut had been telling me to short, but with the way the market has been jumping up off any dip in price, I didn't trust to do it.   Mainly because I didn't re-enter short at the top after taking my scalp gain at 1:08pm.
The market is actually acting normal (?) so far today.  Odd for a Tuesday!
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3:38   TNA is just churning and chopping.  I was holding on for a potential break down or break out, but it is 'dead in the water.'   Moving average on my 15 minute chart is horizontal.  Like I said, dead.
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4:00   Still holding my TZA long swing trade.  No other shares held.