March 4th

I logged onto IB later than usual this am and so
missed the chance to participate in the huge morning run up of SKF. But I watched and waited to identify the end of the run. Now, I knew the run up would end, as they do in any given day...stocks don't go forever. I had to balance that knowledge with my penchant for calling tops and bottoms where they ain't; a problem I've identified and outlined in prior posts. I watched the 10:21 red candle and the 10:24 red candle. It felt like the reversal was confirmed and I shorted at 10:25. I covered at 10:26 for about 46 cents per share. I decided to try to catch another down move 15 secoinds later with the realization that I covered too soon on what should be a much lower drop off such large morning run-up. But, I didn't see much movement and covered basically even on the trade. With the day job appt coming up, I decided to bow out and watch while I prepared for my appt. Well, after two small green candles at 10:30 and 10:33, my sizable drop took place. This is the one I wanted and thought I'd get. It's just that I haven't learned to trust my gut on these reversals yet. I simply don't have the experience. At this moment, as I prepare to go out the door, the larger down move in SKF continues; at $203.30, it is a full $8.48 per share lower than my initial short... and still retreating...
2 wins out of 2 trades, 100% success rate. 46 cents per sahre gain.

March 3rd

I really tried to focus on better set-ups and on NOT picking reversals where the market isn't clearly presenting them. Fewer, high quality trades. I still left a lot on the table in the moves which worked for me. But, I am unwilling, for some reason, to allow myself to run with a move. It will take some conditioning to get past this urge to sell too soon.

The marks/arrows on the volume chart at the bottom of SKF are where I was trying to identify patterns in the correlation of volume spikes and reversals of direction.

Good trading to all!

4 out of 5 winners, 80% success. gain of 69 cents per share.

March 2nd

Well, it was a rough day in the end but each tough day is a chance to learn when you are trading, paper-money or not.

It seems that I am destined to repeat the same errors over and over. In the case of today, I was not waiting for the best set-ups; high probability setups. And for the life of me, I cannot help the BAD habit of playing for reversals. This has been a constant issue since I started trading in October. I am always looking for the turn instead of jumping on the move and riding the Momo. This fascination/fixation with picking the end of a move is incredibly frustrating. I don't know if it is the great thrill of catching the beginning of a new move (the satisfaction of "Being Right"), or concern over jumping on momo with the fear that the move is going to end, or some other mental dysfunction. This is something of which I'm aware. It is a pattern. Therefore, with enough attention, I am confident I will correct it someday. It just doesn't look like it will be right away! The whole point of this method of trading is to ride momentum, to hop on the train instead of trying to turn it around (an impossible feat).

I think I'll get the point eventually. I am only about month and a half into playing high-ADR ETF's and not full-time trading. Only a fool would believe 30 days is enough time to master a skill as difficult as this. Some traders speak of 6 months, 1 year, and longer. Scott of Fear & Greed wrote of watching and studying for 2 years before jumping in.

I'll just keep plugging away and trying to improve.

25 Trades for net loss of $1.97 per share. 60% win rate.