July 8th - Pt 1

Just got to the market after a day job and found SKF poppin'.

Saw a consolidation area pushing but not breaking through resistance so I waited for it to get back to the top of the consolidation channel and went short, ready to reverse the trade in case it went against me by breaking out. It didn't, rather it went just as I thought it might and I picked up 16 cents. Out way too soon (see chart above illustrating my entry and exit, as well as the magenta line which is my indication of a premature exit) as the move went down to 48.67 at 12:51 pm, briefly pulled back and is still dropping now. More lost opportunity from bailing too early... but a profitable trade just the same. I'm not feeling too well so I may scrub the afternoon and head to bed. Tomorrow has a busy day job and I want to try to be up for it. SKF still dropping... wow did I leave some serious $ on the table... by my count right now, I took $45 from a trade that could have given me up to $426.

As I edit this post for spelling and syntax (I don't always bother to do this, btw!) after publishing it, that trade I was in is still testing the low of the move. Wow, what a nice entry and what a pathetic follow-through on my part. I surely need practice with my exits.

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Addendum, July 9th: I never did get back to trading. Just didn't feel up to it. Too bad, SKF was moving nicely with lots of opportunity yesterday. In any event, I just wanted to update where my one trade would have gone had I held it to its reversal of direction. It was dropping nicely after I sold it and while I was updating the blog. My short entry was at $49.34 and the bottom of the move was at $47.59, a $1.75 move. Based on the 300 shares I traded, the move would have given me up to a $525 gain. I took $45; only 8.5% of what I had available to me. Again, my trade was never in danger because the share price never approached my entry price.

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1 for 1, 100% win rate. Gain of $45 in 30 minutes of live trading. Stop engaged but not tested.

July 7th

Not a bad day in trading the SKF and OIH although it was a day where I went 4 for 7 and lost money in SKF but went 4 for 5 in OIH and made a profit. I try to be an optimist so I look at my trades in SKF as acceptable even with a loss because I had the best entry of the day in it at 1:31 pm. A long trade at $44.67, I ended up selling it Much, Much too soon. I got in to the markets around 1:00pm and tracked it on the last part of that leg down which started at 12:40pm. After a stupid play where I did average down a bit on my first two trades, I got out of it with an $18 loss while flogging myself the whole way! I was feeling the shift in momentum and bought long at the aforementioned $44.67, only 10 cents off the the lowest point from 10:00 am through the day's end. As I mentioned earlier, it was my best entry of the day... but wasted when I wasn't willing to let it go to the stop. I bailed with a tiny gain of $12. In the next candle, it did drop to 4 cents below my buy price but did not touch my stop. had I held the trade with discipline (until stop-out), I would have been in on the run which topped out at $46.26 at close; a rise of $1.59 per share from my cost basis; gain of up to $477. Would I realistically have held until EOD if I were a good trader? Not very likely. A good trader would have sold the retracement starting at 3:05 pm then played the last leg up seperately. Still, I like the fact that I had a line on one of the best moves of the day after a terrific entry. These are encouraging signs, in my opinion. I simply have to trust my gut... AND, develop an exit plan that follows the model of trading which I have chosen. Namely, one which fits momentum changes.

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In OIH, it was more of the same. My first three trades were decent entries but exits too early with small profit. The fourth trade was a stop out (10 cent stop that went a bit over). The fifth trade was a good entry and a good exit, given the momentum at EOD. I was playing long when the sentiment was short so I was happy to get that last gain.

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8 for 12 winners, a 67 % win rate. Gain of $111 in 3 hours of live trading. Added to one loser on the first trade of the day but held stops afterward.

July 6th Mid-day

Good trades, lost opportunity...

Mrs. Blue Collar and I are both off work today and enjoying the Sunshine finally in Northern New England.

In a short lunch-break while finishing an exterior window trim replacement project, I got a few trades in on OIH. After two stop outs playing for a reversal, I finally did the right thing and go with the rising stock. Picked up 12 cents then sensed a reversal so I sold it. The stock did top out and I took it short about 2 minutes later and got an excellent entry. I covered about 5 minutes later for a 16 cent gain. I then went back up on my porch roof to complete my project and put away my tools. Got back down to the computer and darn it but the stock had fallen, and fallen some more; 82 more cents down from where I got out. I got only 15% of the move. Once again... haste costs me money. The trade was never threatened by a retracement/pullback. Mrs. Blue Collar and I are headed out for a motorcycle ride so I don't expect any more trades on the day.

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2 for 4 trades, 50% win rate. Gain of $27 in 30 minutes of live trading.