"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Monday, March 9, 2009

A Response...


Notes about SKF on a 3-minute timeframe...
1. I search for patterns of behavior over many successive time periods
2. I try to correlate, in two ways, unusual volume levels with what the price is doing at the same
time
a. Real Time- gives me a feel for velocity of movement and how that affects one's ability
to scalp the move of a given candle.
b. In Review- check candles after time has passed in order to get a feel for how the unusual
volume level affected the longer -term, multi-candle move. Did the volume indicate a
change of direction in price?

3. Technical Analysis priniples apply and I look for stalls at or breaks through support and
resistance for higher probablility entries. Also look for breaks from consolidation areas.
4. I try to think of what is actually happening to the buyers and sellersof the shares as the price
rises and falls. This is new to me as I always saw candles and volume as bars moving on the
screen. By attributing the moves on the screen to the interaction of men and women
actually trading shares, I helps me develop a clearer picture of what is really happening.
What of situations where many shares trade but price does not vary? and what of big price
swings on minimal volume? What are the folks trading shares thinking?
5. Price Follows Volume - ...but, volume levels vary throughout the trading day. In the mid-
day, nice price moves are carried on lower volume levels as compared to the open. I try to
evaluate the affect of volume on a price move within the context of the time of day in which it
happens.
6. I also found that one should "Beware the Ultra-low Volume Candle" as a possible signal of
reversal. eg. See todays SKF chart and look at the 11:42 timeframe as well as the 11:57 and
12:57.... take a look at what follows!
7. Very high levels of volume seem to be imply potential of reversal. eg. See SKF on todays 3-minute chart. Look at the 10:18 am candle. High volume reversal with a long-candle body opens and closes near the end of the price range for that 3-min time period. Appears to be very bullish. Then see that volume declines through 10:24 am but then ramps up again. Profit taking happens at the 10:30 am candle on strong volume but the move up continues! But, look at volume level at 10:36... High volume big price range (wicks/shadows) but the close price is very low to the bottom of the range. Momentum may be shifting. High volume, weak price action, maybe a reversal? (also, beware the false positive) Look at the next two candles 10:39 and 10:42. There's the reversal, and one with a decent measure of conviction by the level of volume indicated as compared to the volume which follows. In fact, the 10:42 volume of 191,000 was the highest through to 1:00 pm when I took the notes for this post. Look at the volume of the candle at 1:06 and what follows it.