"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Monday, April 22, 2013

Monday April 22 ( Gain $124.88 )

At the computer at the open with Mrs BlueCollar sitting beside me.
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I drew a line on the chart saying, "That's where price is going, short-term."  And, it did.  I was not short as this move down took place, choosing instead to let the Hotshot Traders trade the opening 15 minutes.  Too bad, I had 1.30 per share available to me had I taken the trade.  I did however, go long as the price reversed.  Long 250 shares TNA at $37.73 at 9:51; two cents off the short-term bottom.  Exited all shares just a minute later, safely but too quickly at $37.89.  Gain $37.71.
Price now diving again and back to the low of the day (LOD).
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10:55am     At 10:11am, I went long again, 250 shares of TNA at $37.44.  It dropped a little to $37.23 then moved up, leaving a reversal candle with huge corresponding volume.  Good entry.  Mrs BCT and I watched price climb to $37.76 in the 10:20 candle... I wanted to get out and take the quick cash there but my wife said, "Hold, hold, you always get out too early."  Price began to pullback and I defied her wishes and exited with a $47.66 Gain.  Price pulled back some more but never threatened my original entry price.  Then it climbed and has kept climbing.  Women are so often correct.  I'd have a potential gain of $200 instead of less than $50 had I listened to her; price is at $38.20 now and consolidating, 80 cents above my entry.  So much opportunity for me but left on the table.
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Right now, my goal isn't to be a perfect, Hotshot Trader.  My goal is to be profitable and to pay our monthly bills as I continue to learn.  And I'm only three weeks into full time live trading with my official trading account. Excellence will come as long as I properly manage risk.
More money can come two ways: More shares but maintain my 'safe' early exits.  Or, maintain my low 'safe' number of shares (250 shares = one-quarter of a 1000 share position) but learn to hold them longer.  With a full 1000 share trade, I'd now be up $340... which if annualized over 250 trading days in a year is $85,000 per year before taxes.  That's in the top 10% of income earners in the United States.
As months and years go on, I hope to master both.  Right now, I'm up over $85 on two successful trades and no losses.  I'm miles from perfect, but I'm profitable.  I'm also not satisfied with trading this way, which is why I know I'll get better, providing I manage risk well.

It ALL hinges on correct risk management.

It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
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12:09   Short 500 shares TNA at 38.83

12:23   covered 250 shares even (Gain .43 cents) I don't like how price is hanging here for almost 15 minutes.  Leaving 250 shares to test for the drop I expected before this.  Big volume on the indices but not TNA... suspect TNA might jump while indices consolidate.
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12:35   TNA did jump about 20 points but is holding my entry level as an S/R line... for now.  I hate being stuck in consolidation.  But it's better than being left behind as a stock moves against me.  Lets see... TNA is showing relative strength to QQQ and that isn't encouraging.  Until they break down, TNA will threaten to break out.
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12:39 pm   There's the TNA pop.  Darn it.
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12:44 pm   Holding
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12:45  Potential reversal candle on the 5-Min SPY after hitting an s/r level.
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1:02pm   Indices coming down from the reversal candle, but TNA standing firm... Hmmmm, dislike.
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1:11pm   On the historical charts, TNA has lagged the SPY in relation to the bounce off SPY's 50 day moving ave the other day.  Maybe it wants to make up the ground here?  TNA still showing relative strength to the indices.
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1:16pm   TNA showing signs of dying.  My trade perhaps getting some life.  Indices sitting and staying on their 17 ema's.  If they crack, I will go positive.  My goodness, there is some solid support at this level: 68.60 on the QQQ's, 155.70 on the SPY!
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1:33pm   Big volume spike in SPY but not much price change... watching closely for what happens next.  No corresponding spike on QQQ or TNA, though TNA is moving up.
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1:37        QQQ rising on dead volume.  Smells like a fake popup to me,  but who knows...
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1:46        QQQ volume came in big and markets jumped TNA big up candle at 1:40pm.
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1:49        SPY retreating slightly from a double top.  TNA down only 10 cents on same move to this point.
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1:52        TNA pulling back from the major s/r area at $39.30.  Might crack here as it is now entering the time of day where stocks often exhibit extra movement.
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2:04       More and more, I'm thinking this is a dangerous place to be short... It's just a feeling, but S & P seems to want to move north.  It isn't holding to any reversal pattern I recognize.
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2:49pm   I hate playing from behind.  I am now short 1000 shares of TNA at 39.39.
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3:55pm   Took half (500 shares) off at 3:18pm for a $12.81 Loss.  Then held my remaining 500 shares. Scaled out 250 shares at $39.33 for $14.57 Gain.  Then covered remaining 250 shares at $39.24 at 3:53pm for a Gain $37.32.  Good thing I got out there, price has rebounded from that point and is not headed up with 1:30 left in the day.
I have no damn idea what was holding this market up.  Plunge protection team at work.  Tons of buying in TNA at 39.38.  Just look at the chart of SPY between 2:45 and 3:30pm.  I mean, what the heck?
Gain of $124.88 for the day.