October 30th

I took just a few minutes in between day-job duties to scalp $80 papertrade bucks out of SKF, going long because of the 11:00 doji. I'm shutting down the trading now to focus on other things but a little practice every day in the market helps to keep me sharp and tuned in to my ultimate goal.

I do hope you all had a good trading day; monetary gain or knowledge (or both).

I saw this, liked it, & reprinted it here...

As I surf the financial/trading blogs which interest me, I occasionally read something which catches my interest enough that I want to reproduce it here. Often, it is something which I have adopted and found helpful, or applies to an area of my personal deficiency with regard to trading.
I found this at onlythemomo.blogspot.com , MarketMonkey's Tuesday, October 20th blog post. These are two quotes from Dr. Alexander Elder.

"Do you have a statistically proven edge? If so, why would you get angry/upset about any influence luck has had on any series of trades?"

and,

"Fear of pulling the trigger is warranted when you don't have an edge...fear of NOT pulling the trigger is necessary when you have one"


These caught my eye because I recognize that I have no statistcally proven edge. No edge: In my opinion, that is the reason why I cannot advance to the next step. I take a trade and I have no calculated idea of what will happen. I haven't documented/ formulated the probabilities of success of my ideas about trading entries and exits. It is true that one does not have to quantify an idea for it to work. But, it seems that in my case where I don't have the time to "hang-out" and get the "feel" for trading that it would make sense to measure the odds of success. Over the next few months, I intend to keep track of some things and see how they prove out.

October 28th

While putting together a big bid for a customer, I had time to watch the market for part of the day. I liked SKF so I stuck with it. Paper traded/Scalped $250 out of it for the day.

The yellow lines indicate some of the What's Familiar ideas I've outlined before; reversals based on candles that end at the high or low extreme, dojis, and near-dojis. Also volume spikes and their corresponding candle price reversals (see white lines from the volume chart up to the candle).

What's Familiar ?

What's familiar with SKF & MOS ?

The vertical white lines drop down to high-volume surges (compared to that which came before). The horizontal white lines associated with the white vertical lines mark the extreme point of price in that 5-min candle for those volume surges.

The yellow lines highlight reversals corresponding to dojis, near doji's (a tight open-close price range as compared to noticably broader high-low price range), or a close at the high or low of the 5-min candle. There are some false positives which I did not highlight, and that is why one uses stops. I'll leave them to you to find. Often, the reversal is not immediate but occurs within the allowable stop-zone and wouldn't trigger a stop if the doji, near-doji, or close at the extreme of the 5-minute interval were used as an entry signal. Ideally, you'd like to use them as an exit signal... :-). Check out your favorite high-ADR stock/ETF and make your own yellow lines at points of direction change. Once a trader can begin to peg reversals of trend with decent probability, the market is her/his oyster. I hope to be there one day myself!

Good luck to all!

-BCT

October 26th

I got into the market with about 18 minutes remaining and went to SKF because it seemed to have been pretty active today.
I scalped a quick eight cents with two trades after watching it for a few minutes. Four months ago, I would have spent the entire day signed into the markets because I was here at the desk. Now, I sign in when I believe I reasonably can, given my day-job. I value trading more this way and salivate more over the thought of becoming a full-time trader. Not to mention, I am left with the positive feeling that I am not abdicating my primary responsibilities, that I am doing what I must in addition to what I want.

October 21st

It felt great to get back to the markets to paper-trade today. It has been a couple weeks, it seems. I actually carved out about 3.5 hours to watch it.

I made some good trades and some which were not as good but ended up working out for me. Nothing to write home about because I see the glaring errors in my technique. Still, I think I did ok considering the very few times I have been able to practice in the past two months. I will continue to study, practice when I can, read the blogs (especially FNG), and look forward to the day when I can make my living at day-trading.

My best to you all. Hope you find your days profitable in all ways!

October 13th

Ha, into the markets very late again today after finishing with my day-job duties. ENER came up on the charts because I was watching it yesterday so I stuck with it and had a chance to scalp another ten paper-trade bucks out of it. So, two days in a row, and twenty bucks in paper-trade gains. Better than a sharp stick in the eye, I guess!

What's Familiar- October 13th

It's been awhile so I thought I'd do this again...

What's familiar? Look at the chart on the right... each of the yellow lines point to a doji, near-doji, or a candle which ends at the high/low for the 5-minute candle period. Each is a common sign of reversal of direction. And, in fact, each example for ENER does predict reversal; some small, some larger and playable.
Also, note the white line that runs from a high-volume spike in the volume area at the bottom of the chart up to the corresponding candle. There are four noted. Each candle high represents the top or darn close to the top of the trend within which it resides. An exit at the close of said candle would yield a gain if a trader was already in the stock from the consolidation break; 38 cents, 62 cents, 33 cents, and 21 cents respectively. The mystery is always the right entry, as you all know. It just sounds so easy when I write it but is so difficult in practice.

October 13th

Finally, another chance to sit in front of the market, if for only 20 minutes at EOD.

I scalped a ten-spot out of ENER, which had flattened out by the time I got to watch it.

I say it every time I post these days, but I'll say it again... I sure miss spending time in the markets. Wish I could throw away my wristwatch and cellphone, Scott! Ha! Gotta earn it first, I guess!

Best to all as you toil away!

October 5th

Seems like forever since I was able to sit in front of a live market.

After so much time I actually get a bit apprehensive; nervous energy flowing through me as I sign in. My results since the beginning of August have been mixed at best and ambivalence would be the best word for it.

Today though, I decided to try to ride the crazy train once I signed in around 3:20 pm: FAS, the 3x financial bull. It was consolidating after its big run from 2:20 to 2:25-ish and had hit a near doji at 3:20pm. I waited until the start of the 3:25 candle then went short, sensing that the market and FAS were going to break support and drop. Well, it didn't! It went the opposite and jumped while doing it. Man, it sure is hard to anticipate these moves. Afterward, they seem so easy to see why they happen. In this case, the near-doji was an indicator of reversal, as it often is. Why didn't I play it that way? I just had a hunch it would drop... I was guessing instead of reading the candles and playing the probabilities as I've outlined them for myself here many times. I stuck with the trade and was rewarded three candles later with the drop I had sensed was coming. However, I had let the stock go well beyond an acceptable stop... in fact, it went to HOD before reversing. Definitely a no-no. My gut told me there was weakness, but common sense still should have prevailed. Anyway, it is just practice... I've been out of the markets for most of a month and I jumped in on one of the most volatile big-cap runners out there. Today was just to get the feel back. Much is still crazy here in my real-life so my time will be limited for much of this month too. I'll try to get in as often as I can and post as much as possible. As I've mentioned before, I ignored my work so much over the past 8-9 months that I must get back on track by putting it first and stop treating stock trading as if it pays the bills. I believe it will one day but not in the forseeable future. I don't yet have the time required to properly learn it.

Mine is the life of a real person with responsibilities and daily matters to attend to, just like many of you. If anything, this blog is about all of us and the struggles we face every day to try to learn this frustrating and fickle craft.

Good trading to everyone this week!