"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Sept 9th


Done early. Paper-traded AIG today and had some early success. I just watched it mid-day to eod, trying to "predict" the next moves. I'm a bit "wet behind the ears" for that, it seems. However, I love to see those familiar signals and seeing what the stock does when they show themselves... dojis, hammers, high-volume spike reversals, etc.

Bike Trip Photos






















































































1. Mrs Blue Collar at Cape Enrage Beach, New Brunswick, Canada.
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2. From the porch of our cottage, Campobello Island, Canada. Watched finback and humpback whales surface all morning, right where the photo was taken.
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3. Acadia National Park, Maine.
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4. The obligatory "tourist" photo. Just over the Confederation Bridge, Price Edward Island, Canada.
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5. The warning sign at Cape Enrage Beach, just before the last leg of the trip up to Cape Enrage Lighthouse. And they meant it... for those not familiar, 20 k/hr is 12 miles per hour. A loose-gravel switchback on steep terrain was no place for a high-torque Harley, gear, and passengers weighing over a half-ton. But, risk breeds reward. Cape Enrage lighthouse was simply awesome!
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6. This scene of old boats caught Mrs Bluecollar's eye when the tide was way out. She captured it when the tide came back in. Campobello Island, Canada.

What's Familiar? - Sept 8th


I use "What's Familiar?" as a way to remind me of the common behaviors of stocks and how I hope to someday use them to trade many of the movements profitably, perhaps even in succession.
Two charts of AIG from yesterday, the one on the left is unmarked for comparison:
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The yellow lines indicate dojis, near dojis, or candles where the open to close price range is tight in comparison to the high to low price range. Each is a precursor to a move in the opposite direction. Are all playable? Perhaps, if you are very sharp with entries and exits. The smallest of the moves off this indicator is 25 cents (measured from the close price of the indicator candle to the far point of the move it telegraphs). Some are small moves as part of the larger overall trend and may not be candidates for trading; the 9:50 and 9:55 am candles, for example.
The one magenta line at 3:10 pm is a false signal, of sorts. It did predict a move to the upside but it was a fake-out and likely would have resulted in a stop-out.
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The white "triangle" lines indicate the high and low points of a playable move where one end of the candle met the 17 EMA and retreated. Only one, the 2:20pm to 2:30 pm, did so on the top side of the moving average, reflecting the overall bearishness of AIG on the day.
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The short horizontal white lines and the thin vertical line below it indicate reversals off high volume spikes relative to the time of day in which they happen. Note that many of these correspond to the doji areas (yellow lines). I now notice one which I didn't mark on the chart: see the 11:05 am candle and the volume below it. It is immediately followed by a reversal doji-like candle marked by the yellow line.
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Patterns, patterns patterns...