"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Thursday, July 18, 2013

July 18

No changes to my trades.

DOW up over 1000 points and the S&P 500 up over 8% in 17 days.  How the 'F' is that real?

As of today, TNA is within a few points of the FURTHEST away from its 200 day EMA since before the market crash of 2008-2009.  Only exceeded by the move to the downside in August 2011, and we all know how much more extreme stock movement is when the momentum is down, given human nature.  My daily historical chart doesn't go back further given the way it is set up, so I don't want to say this is unprecedented, but it certainly is exceptional.

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In the retirement account, I went long 1000 TZA at $25.02 at 11:03 am and exited at $25.20 at 12:44 pm.  Net gain of $160.

July 17 ( $0 )

Other than last Friday, I have made no changes to my TNA TZA swing-trade.  And it is a real pain in the account.  The market keeps going UP UP UP in the face of bad news and obviously with good news.  It is irrational but to paraphrase a wise man, "Markets will remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent."
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As of today's high print in TNA, with the exception of one day in August 2011, price is further away from it's 200 day moving average than at any point in the past four to five years.  That includes the throes of the market crash of 2008 into 2009!
This run with very little pullback is a tremendous anomaly.  This is why I'm holding.  And the market moves up to inflict as much pain as possible in order to drive out all the shorts, before it retreats.  So it goes higher for now and will continue until the weak hands are beaten into submission.   This is the basis for the old market adage, "Your first loss is your best loss."
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On the bright side, I have been doing well trading in the retirement account, with recent gains of $100, $460, and $390.  However, my opportunities are limited because it is not a margin account; funds must settle after a trade before being reused.

Friday, July 12 ( Loss $888)

This was from last Friday. I took off 500 shares of TZA to lighten my risk some.