May 13 EOD update

I got a call from a day-job customer and had to come back to the desk & fire up the computer as a result. The market is closed for the day so I checked the LVS chart, curious as to where my trade placed in terms of later movement. The chart above shows that my short nailed the top of the second peak in a double-top formation. I'm posting this chart, then back to the building project...

May 13

I took just a few minutes again today to practice-trade. Took two trades, one in RIG and the last in LVS, basically just using S/R and volume clues to try to play the probabilities as best I could. Both trades were successful but more scalps than anything. I liked that I picked what appears right now to be a reversal point to short LVS... $24.85. If this turns out to be a double-top formation, it will have been a great entry at a primary reversal point. If not, it will be a successful pegging of a minor reversal point. Time will tell. After blogger uploads the chart, I can't stick around to find out, there's work to be done elsewhere!

Still waiting for Blogger and it's 15 mins later. Chart of LVS still showing red as price approaches the 17EMA $24.70. Nice... but now retreating from that level back toward $24.75 S/R.

May 12th

Finally, a chance to sit at the computer. albeit for only an hour or so. My construction project has been keeping me busy because of a mid-june deadline, along with day-job because the Spring is one of my busiest seasons.

The paper-trades yesterday were in RIG. First was a long as soon as I logged in, with an eye toward just jumping on momo and looking for the turn to get out. That is exactly how I played it, a near perfect trade for me. But, then I went long again at a spot where I thought a reversal might occur. Wrong idea... in retrospect, I didn't wait for a signal. I only guessed. I am not quite ready for prime-time, it seems! I held the position and added to the losing trade at points where I thought a turn might occur, again not waiting for a signal. Finally, I saw my signal at approx 67.15, then added three positions there. That spot ended up being the low of the day for RIG; a primary reversal. I exited with a decent gain on all but one position, then went to a day-job appointment. One of my weakest skills is recognizing when the momo is moving against me. I haven't really ever set stops but have tried to train myself to "see" when a trade is bad then trust my judgement. Of course, this is too risky a strategy for real money. I'm hoping to refine my senses to know when the trade is bad but stops must be set and adhered to, if I am going to have any shot at trading survival.

Although it has been part-time, I have been watching the market enough over the past year to recognize the signals of reversal, minor and primary. My method needs refinement and I still am fighting the urge to average on a losing trade rather than reverse the trade or exit and wait for a better spot to enter. This urge to hold a losing trade definitely corresponds to times when I am under the stress of daily life. This is a pattern in my trading I've observed more than a few times. The first step in fixing something is recognizing the problem.

We don't trade in a vacuum.