"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Monday, April 29, 2013

April 29 (Gain $33.36)

11:21   I've been sitting here since the open, unimpressed with movement thus far.  Market ran up some 9:30 into 10:00 but has done little since.  I shorted 250 shares TNA at 42.95 and had a small unrealized gain of about $26 but held for a longer breakdown.  It came back up and is hugging the $42.95 area so I covered for breakeven (loss $4.85).  Still it is trading in a very tight channel using my earlier entry as a mid-point.  Just waiting now, watching.

11:41   The "Miracle Market" of small caps (from which TNA is derived) is still flying high!  Russell 2000's 'most shorted' names have raced up 7.3% in the last 5 days as compared to 2.4% for the Russell index itself (also quite impressive).  This is why my reversal trading has been unfruitful of late.  It's a wonder I've made any money at all over the past couple weeks.  Check out these three charts from a post at Zero Hedge:



"The epic triple-beta dash-for-trash continues to rage and tear the faces off every short who dare use reasonable valuation (macro- and micro-) perspectives to make investment decisions. When will it end?"  - Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge

11:57   TNA is still trading in a tight, ten cent channel.  Basically dead in the water, trading back and forth over the 7 ema much as it was Friday around 2:00pm.  It is still trading above the 17 ema and putting in higher lows so it is showing mild bullishness.  This is the same for SPY.

12:04   Movement up in TNA... a whole 19 cents on nice volume.  Yeah! (sarcasm)

12:54   Approaching an hour of tight channel after the above mentioned tiny boost up.  What a joke.
12:59   Short 250 shares TNA at 43.04.  If SPY breaks below the 17 ema, this should produce a gain.
1:05     SPY and QQQ both held their 17 ema and most of the unrealized gain I had is gone.  Basically at breakeven now; slightly green.
1:35     TNA held 42.95 for 6 candles in a row, with SPY supporting the same level with 3 dojis out of 5 candles!  Un-freaking believable.  I'm still on the plus side of the trade but so close that it is essentially breakeven.  All I can think is that the big boys want to drive the markets to new highs today and that pendulums really do swing in one direction.
1:44     Well, my trade is negative now as SPY has popped up to test its earlier high.  
1:53     SPY only 14 cents from an all-time high.  My trade negative still.  
2:03     No lower lows in TNA yet today.
2:32     Still maintaining the higher lows via the 2:15 candle, all of this on crap volume.
2:47     Consolidating around the median of 43.10.  
3:02     Every low defended with tooth and claw... SPY, QQQ and TNA
3:03     Finally broke some, but buyers are fighting... SPY will have to break support at the 159.35 level before I am convinced it is a retreat of any significance.  And THAT level will be seriously defended given those dojis that are there.

3:07    SPY hit the 159.35 and is trying to go through.  TNA also dropping.  QQQ at 70.22 support and holding firm, bouncing off it.
3:12    TNA held 42.85, support from 10:30 & 11:15; moving up now. 
3:29    Had a $50 unrealized gain, looking for it to really breakdown.  Nope, I'm back to break even.
3:49    Exited half, 250 shares TNA at breakeven (gain $1.58).
3:58    All out, exited 250 shares at 42.86, five cents off the lowest point since before 10:00am.                                    Gain of $36.62
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The market is all up and no down, so mean reversion trading yields little gains.  TNA basically traded in a 30 cent channel after 10:00am.  And that is very hard to trade. 
Let's see what tomorrow brings.