"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Thursday, April 5, 2012

done for the day

only one trade today, but I love watching the charts and trying to figure out the buyer and seller dynamic. It helps me learn. Price movement is not just a red or green bar going up and down, it is interaction of people, or computers programmed by people.
Tomorrow is Good Friday and the markets are closed. I have promised a friend I will help her mow down some bushes in her back yard and I now have to go and fix my brush cutter that doesn't seem to want to stay running.
A blessed Easter weekend to the Christians who are reading. Their most important time of the year. And to my Jewish friends, a good Passover to you.
And the rest can always invent a holiday to compete if you feel left out, like was done with Kwanzaa.

Interesting? Not!







Price did pop but it really isn't "interesting" that price has hit a wall at the exact level that I entered earlier. No coincidence at all. Who do we guess is caught at that level and selling like hell to get free of their anxiety after the recent drop?



Price has popped through the entry green line and back into "suckers' channel" as I write this. *see upper, more recent chart.

Playable pop...




As I write this, the pop continues up past where the chart shows...

As predicted, $58.20...





There's the $58.20 area, just as my intuition guided me, and with a nice volume spike as proof that I wasn't the only one looking for it. Price loves those old-timey pivot points! Expecting a playable pop off that S1 pivot...

The "Suckers' Channel" continues



Price is still between my entry and exit...

Even deeper to rescue some more shorts








Lot of traders got punked in the fake down move, and price is coming down some more rescuing them. Price pops when they buy to cover... I can see volume spike (as it shows on the chart now) when they do cover. The anatomy of trading. Now what will happen when all those panicking shorts who didn't set stops finally clear out by covering? Where will price head then? My intuition thinks lower into the $58.20 area. It's hard to know for sure because one has to estimate the overall weakness and strength of the market for the time being.It has been weak-ish most of the day. The deep 1:45 red candle is a signal...



UPDATE: Blogger is really slow to upload charts and this one has taken over twenty minutes to get posted...

Deeper Re test...






Price down again deeper and as soon as all the agonized shorts got even again, they bought to cover and sent price up smartly, causing another long tail. Interestingly, price dipped to my entry price, then is back up some since the screen shot... NO coincidencce. Price is now consolidating in side the Suckers' Channel, between my entry and my stopout level; at least for now.

Re test






Re testing... note the 2:25 candle with the long tail. Price dipped back down, many of the sweating shorts bought to cover and price popped up, causing that long tail.

And Out






Stopped out. And stock popping. I was short in, and had a chance to scalp out of what became the "punk out" candle; the long tail designed to trip stops and or sucker new shorts in before the big dogs quickly reversed it back up. There are a ton of shorts howling because they thought price would really drop on the punk-out candle. Hmmm, will price come back down to retest that area? My intuition thinks yes. We'll see...

First one today






shorted on what I thought would be a continued move down. It dipped sharply right after I entered but halted at 59.32. Nice place to scalp a winner but I'm in for the stopout. Price has risen again just short of my stop then is running up and down between my entry and just shy of my stop. Maybe just like yesterday, I am in the "Sucker's Channel?" We'll see...