"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Monday, April 30, 2012

The Channel I discussed in my earlier post...



In my earlier post, I mentioned the channel that was established by two of the levels I had drawn on the chart Friday. The two levels turned out to be the channel in which TNA traded from 10:15 am until the close, though the upper level wasn't approached again until EOD.

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No trades today, I was distracted by job searching. I'm still looking for a second-shift position that will allow me to stay at the computer during the trading day. My future trading account $ are being eaten away by monthly expenses as a result of Mrs. Bluecollar's job loss in December. It really threw a wrench into my plan to learn to trade without stress. So, we've even talked about "refilling the account" by putting trading on hold while I get a day-job if an evening job doesn't come forth soon. It would be a setback for sure, but would not diminish my drive to one day be a self-employed professional trader. The hiatus option is going to be the last one we choose, but is a real possibility. I hate the thought of it, but my concern was always with having the money to support myself during the learning phase, not with being able to eventually trade successfully.


There are a lot of unknowns, but one thing is still true: I love the markets and I am still as excited by trading as the first day I started paying attention to it. My mouth waters at the thought of getting to the computer each day to mine the charts for patterns.

Friday's last trade and today...










Isn't it interesting that on Friday, my last move of the day was to short TNA for an expected breakdown, but closed it essentially even before the day ended. Going to the text of one of my early posts on Friday, I noted that I was expecting TNA to break down to the $60.10 to 60.20 area or even down to $59.65. Well, as I write this, TNA is below both those levels, indicating my short choice at EOD Friday was a good read and my level of $59.65 was relevant... that is where price rebounded to after the opening drive today. The lower orange line on the chart was another level I was looking at Friday, though I didn't think it would be hit that day. Well, if you note the lower, more recent chart, it was just hit and price bounced off it; with a high level of trader participation at that spot (volume spike).


It would appear that my two levels are the channel boundaries inside which TNA is travelling for the time being.


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As to my short at the end of day Friday, my original stop line would have held and allowed me to stay in for the drop. My revised stop line would not have. Had I not closed the trade willingly, it would have stopped out on a "punked out" candle at 3:55 though again, my orginal stop would have held up; note the long upper wick on the 3:55 pm candle just before the drop that extended into today. I continue to be encouraged by my instincts and my overall reading of the charts. I definitely need a lot of work on execution. Of course, I would not have held over night and certainly not over the weekend. But it is enough to know that I was on the right track.


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I am still keeping an eye on that level that I referenced from Friday... the one at which I had thought about entering long for the eventual move up. I marked it with the magenta colored line at $60.31. I am making no predictions, but I think it will show some relevance, if only for a brief time period. Releveance meaning that some activity may take place there. Anyone who got short at that level and was suffering as the stock climbed away from them on Friday afternoon was rewarded with a nice gain this morning when TNA dropped below their entry spot. So maybe the "hope and pray" traders got out and activity will be minimal at the magenta line. We'll see what happens when or if price retests that spot. I'm still learning about this stuff ; watching these levels that my experience has shown as often significant is just another bend on the upward sloping learning curve.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Tally for the day



Here's how the day ended.

EOD volatility






































The market is closed and the chart is this upper screenshot. Vol continued through the close, but close was weak as compared to my short entry price. Traders were really raising hell with the price.



















If I had stayed in a just a few more minutes I would have had a chance to exit with a 17 cent gainer. But volatility is high and the next candle was the tall green one on the lower chart which would have tripped my stop had I stayed in. two minutes left as I type this and price is dipping to $60.65 on typically high EOD volume.

Last of the day




With ten mins left in the day, I'm out with a two cent loss, not waiting for my stop to hit. My guess that the market would tank did not come to pass, so if my idea is wrong, I'm "heading for the showers." A good weekend to all.




















Last of the day, I followed up on my sense that the market would dump at the EOD. I got a little of it started here, although as I continue type this post the market has shot up again on high volatility. I think I'll just exit and take a small gain instead of waiting for the big drop.

TNA is lagging

TNA is not dropping in concert with the pullbacks in the QQQ and the SPY right now. Not sure what is going on, usually they move relative to one another. Two things come to mind, but I am just speculating...

1. TNA will soon drop really quickly to catch up.

2. TNA players are artificially propping up the price in the art of gamesmanship in order to lure as many traders into the trap as possible.

First and Second of the day

First of the day was a short at the 1:05pm candle. I thought price would retreat off the R1 pivot and continue down. Got stopped out. Short orange line at the 1:20pm candle suggests where I thought it would be good to go long, but I didn't pull the trigger. That is purely a mental lapse and a missed opportunity on a nice winner. I must get to the root of the cause why I struggle to risk in favor of trend. Because this was an "impulse" area of mine and because it was the start of what would have been a winning trade, I have to wonder how many real-money traders got short at that spot ($60.30) and are in agony now because they didn't stop out. Makes me want to keep an eye on that area if price does collapse as the day goes on. Might make a nice level of support, if only temporary. I'm going to mark it with a magenta colored line so I won't forget the spot.


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Second of the day: Short off the touch of the R2 pivot after a significant volume spike. Price consolidated for a couple candles then drooped. The indices hit support levels so I exited TNA at the same time. Good idea because it was just prior to the pop that shows in the chart at right. My sense is that there is more downside to come, but I took a gain when momo seemed to die. My gut is telling me price will go down in the $60.10-$60.20 area by EOD; maybe as low as $59.65 area. Never certain though...

Last Night's "Premonition"





I've struggled the last two days... six stop outs in eight trades while getting lost/mired in choppy consolidation (see top picture of my results since Wednesday). I am trying to broaden my scope by trading with trend instead of playing for reversals. This is new to me and the unfamiliarity is showing in my performance. Often, I feel like I am part of the market; that I know where it is going before it gets there. But over the past couple days, I have been lost. As if I am just beginning my journey. This is frustrating and I have literally been losing sleep over it. Last night (early this morning) at about 3:00 AM, I was awake and at my computer mapping the SPY, studying the charts to determine key S&R levels then ranking them in order of importance. I began nodding off in my chair around 5:15 AM so I went to bed. When I got up again, I went to the charts to look at what I had done. I couldn't remember much of the work I had done but found these two targeted levels denoted by orange lines on SPY. The market opened with a gap-up but dropped immediately and continued down. Watching CNBC while eating my oatmeal, I heard Cramer say to Melissa Lee and David Faber how he was surprised the markets were so weak with the relatively good data that had been announced (I'm not sure what data it was). But the charts had predicted the weakness and I saw it at about 4:00 this morning. I marked it on the chart. And my lower orange line held as Support for the S&P between 10:00 - 10:15 AM. There has been a nice bounce since then that the above chart only partially shows, since it has been roughly twenty-five minutes since I captured the screen-shot.

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I can't let my frustration and anxiety over personal finances here at home keep me from continuing my trading education. I really believe I am on the right path and that I have an understanding of what the market is doing often enough to make money trading. But I haven't developed a method, an edge, that allows me to consistently and profitably manage what I sense from the charts. And I am prone to lapses in discipline; getting caught up in the knee-jerk trading of a newcomer. This limitation is strictly mental/psychological. I am working on this part as I continue to study charting and momentum of trading.

I exercise, I try to meditate, I read books and blogs about psychology, I am signed up for a yoga class which I haven't yet attended, I watch my sugar intake and manage my diet much better than in the past, I gave up caffeine last November and I have stopped drinking alcohol as of early February 2012. I don't use drugs, prescribed or recreational. I occasionally take advil and when my pollen allergies get unbearable, I take Loratidine (Claritin). Much of this is to instill self-discipline and healthy habit. Physically, I feel better: I have increased my muscle mass and my cardio health. I don't get the spikes and crashes related to caffeine, sugar, or the downer effects from alcohol. Mentally, I am still a work in progress. I have a long way to go to catch up to the gains I've made in physical fitness.

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As I have written in the past. whether I learn to trade for a living or not, I will be a better person through the attempt. Of that, I am certain.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Yesterday, Tuesday the 24th








For some reason, I was not motivated to blog about my practice trading yesterday. Here is how it went. One trade in TNA and a small gain. To the right are the chart and the day's tally.
This was a reversal play that dipped some after I got in long. It actually dropped three cents below my stop line but I held it anticipating that it was a move solely intended to trip stops before moving up. After the pop, TNA started back down and continued in that direction for the next 30 minutes. So perhaps the best narrative of that 1:30 pm pop is that it was a move based solely on triggered stops and once that buying died, so did the move up. Short covering, but no continuation / organic buying. It's good info to think about, but in the end, it pays to be nimble when trading for reversal against the primary direction of the trend in which one is involved. Here, the primary direction is down after the 11:10 am tall green candle (not pictured) accompanied by above-average volume.

Monday, April 23, 2012

And There It Is...Target Hit!



Afte the pull back, TNA went on to hit my projected target (Orange Line) on HUGE volume. Looks like some big money traders had the same thought...

Not quite there...



My prediction for $53.77 did not quite come to pass., as denoted by the orange line on my earler chart. TNA got to $53.60, created two dojis, then reversed as shown on the chart to the right. Price pulled back from the HOD, consolidated, then has dropped nicely in the most recent candle on the chart.

I have not taken a second practice trade today thus far. I am content to watch and learn...

Exit, nice pop and not waiting to stop it out...





I used discretion instead of rules here. It violates my rules of exit but it sure seemed like momo had stalled; +60 cent winner.


Red line was my stop. Green the entry, Orange horizontal line above is my target area for any continuation move up...

The short orange line at the 9:50 cnadle was my "impulse" buy spot that I did not act upon. It seemed like the "sucker's bet" spot to go long.

first of the day




In long on the first of the day. Not sure about this one... I am expecting to get "punked" by the big players driving price down to trip stops. But,
I am going to go back to my exit rules and see what happens... I wanted to take profit at $52.70 with a 40 cent gain. But, I 'll stay in to see what happens. Price is dipping again toward my entry line.

Great Quote

"It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it."

~Thomas Sowell

April 15th - Photos



















On April 15th, the weather here in the northeastern US was perfect and we got on the motorcycle and rode. Here are a few photos from our trip through the Maine & New Hampshire border area. Second down from the top is a 2011 photo of our ride.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Saw it, Liked it, Reposting it here...

I've mentioned before that I am a fan of Dr. Andrew Menaker's website and the blog there that he occasionally updates. I found him through the SMB Training Blog, of which I am also a big fan. At Mike Bellafiore's request, Dr. Menaker once addressed my question to the SMB Blog regarding overcoming bad trading habits.
I liked this blog post from April 13th...

http://www.andrewmenaker.com/something-you-need-to-know/

Something You Need to Know
April 13th, 2012
Leave a comment Go to comments
A trader with a superior trading strategy but lacking in self-management skills will generally underperform a trader who has a less than superior strategy (but still has en edge) and is superior in self-management. I see this all the time.
Consider re-directing some of your energy and time toward self-mgt. Self mgt. includes a lot of things….but the big one is understanding how your emotions – including subconscious emotions – influence your decisions and actions.
Your trading plan or your strategy must include self management.
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And from his April 17th blog post, he wrote this. It is as if he was peering into my mind when he wrote it. I am a knee-jerk reversion-to-the-mean trader. My first instinct is to wait for trend to end, then play for a reversal. In periods of high volatility, I tend to play for reversals which end up being "fades" because momentum keeps stocks trending for longer timeframes. That is to say, high vol sends stocks further from the mean than is customary and I play for reversal too early. My reversal plays are actually fades. This is precisely what happened a number of days last week. Fortunately, I have been working on my discipline and have been doing well engaging stops, which turn trend fades that would then become too much risk into stopouts. I spend an inordinate amount of time analyzing myself for the reasons why. I have to believe that with this constant high level of personal scrutiny, I will find a way to make proper trading decisions free from the clutches of anxiety or habit.
Until then, I remain a trader in training.

http://www.andrewmenaker.com/my-bold-prediction/

My Bold Prediction
April 17th, 2012
Leave a comment Go to comments
The prediction is that I’ll get a large number of emails by EOD and later tonight after traders survey the damage.
Yes, some things never change. Fighting a strong tape is a time honored tradition among many intra-day traders. Unfortunately.
A few reasons:
Many intra-day traders tend to have a short bias….you know, ‘elevator down and stairs up’…’make more faster on the down moves’.
The fading mind-set….or regression to the mean type thinking.
Probabilities. As someone who uses Market Profile and volume profiling, I’m well aware that the market tends to be rotational about 80% of the time, and makes directional moves about 20% of the time. The traders that cling to probabilities often do really well for a period of time…during rotational times…and when the directional day comes…BAM…all those rotational profits are gone in a heartbeat. This scenario plays itself out ALL the time. Especially when the market makes nice reversals such as today.
The moral of the story here is that one can not trade by probabilities alone. This is one of the reasons why I’ve been invited to speak at an institutional investing/trading conference in Japan in June.




Friday, April 20, 2012

Today, one practice trade so far




Here's my one trade today from earlier: 11:45am candle. I didn't follow my exit rules and got out on a false signal. The stock halted upward momo when it hit the 17 EMA so I got out. Starting with the next candle, WLT continued higher without me. I had anywhere from a 75 to 85 cent winner available to me if I had played it properly. Looks like I have to get back to my exit rules in order to combat my penchance for "cutting and running."

UPDATE: I performed just the one trade today.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Finally able to trade again





After taking Monday, Tuesday off from practice trading to focus on tax responsibilities as well as a personal day yesterday to spend with my sister, I am back at it today.


Here is my first trade entry and then exit. I decided to skip my rules of exit for the first half-hour today because of the high volatility. I exited at what I thought was a good spot. Nice gainer (+ 60 cents), but price kept going afterward. I could have had nearly double the winner had I stayed in. One really never knows with certainty where a stock will go...


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UPDATE: As I fix my typos on this post, the price is soaring. I could have had over twice my gain had I still been in as of this writing.

Friday, April 13, 2012

This is what I missed when I got "punked"



I had marked the two orange lines as potential target levels for price to hit. The first was hit just before price dipped steeply and stopped me out. The second target was essentially reached at the 1:35 pm candle. I was out of the move compliments of getting punked at the 1:20 candle. However, this is the gamesmanship that is played and I must adapt my trading to this repeated pattern of behavior. Had I left my original stop in place (see short red line), I would have been in for the fifty cent ride up to my targeted price level.


If one looks at the chart from a tactical perspective, the following emerges:

1. The 12:40, 12:50; 12:55; and 1:00 candles all have long lower wicks where price pushed down and stops were tripped and buyers went long eating up those shares from the tripped stops, causing price to jump.

2. Same long lower wick on the 1:20 candle, the one that stopped me out.

3. It is customary to place a stop just under the low point just prior to where one enters.



With this in mind, the chart shows that there is a limited safe range where one could have entered long and not been stopped out. I was on the very edge of that safe zone and was able to survive, though just barely. I was nearly stopped out at the 1:00pm candle. Stop placement is critical when trading volatile stocks as they turn direction. There is a lot of gamesmanship by big players, pushing price back and forth stopping out the weaker hands; by weaker hands I mean those who are not willing to take a lot of stop loss risk and set tight stops. The big boys get traders to commit in the wrong direction during choppy consolidation as I have been doing at times this week. An example of chop on this chart is the band between 12:40 and 1:00 pm. There is a lot of "Trade the Traders" instead of "trading the stock" going on in this band of consolidation chop.

In my case here, I decided to minimize my stop loss risk by moving my stop line up from the original $115.75 level to $115.87 and I commited myself to playing a "weak hand," to use a poker term, and weak hands are preyed upon by stronger hands. I had only a marginal entry price, but I had placed my original stop at a level that just passed the test to keep me in the trade. I was more "lucky" than "skilled" in that regard. The best entry on this move would have been getting long early in the 12:30 candle after price dipped down in the red 12:25 candle immediately prior; with a stop under the low of that 12:25 pm candle. Only this area would have been really safe to prevent stopouts as a result of the long lower wicks between 12:40 and 1:00 pm. Those long wicks shook out many longs that got in during the 12:40 to 1:00 pm chop. Note that the 1:00 pm candle has the longest wick of all and dipped lower thatn the four wicks just prior. That was by design... tripping those last stops. This last "punk out" candle set off the stops, provided the extra shares necessary to fuel a move up, and price did just that! It took off from there to reach the $116.08 level (where I had my first target marked by the orange line). On the candle that I got stopped out on, price was quickly driven down again, stopping out many of the longs who got on board as the move up took place. Late comers, playing "weak hands," weak hands meaning traders with tight fearful stops, traders without stops who were willing to sell at the drop of a hat out of fear of reversal against them, and those who were playing it "safe" by waiting to get long after the move was already in full motion. All of these players with "weak hands" were sent packing with the 1:20 pm long lower wick candle. And when they got out, the big players with strong hands used the liquidity to fuel the next leg of the move up to the $116.40 level (where I had my second target marked with an orange line.)

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Gamesmanship, that's what I believe it is.

First one today












Long in GS for my first trade today. This trade was not started at a great price but I managed to survive the next four candles of chop before it started working. I almost got "punked" on the 1:00pm candle but it touched my stop line without breaking through. As I write this, price has dipped quickly and I stopped out my trade because I had moved up the stop line as the trade began to gain ground. (see bottom chart)


Price has since shot back up after this stopout and is now working again nicely, above $116.10, without me in it. It appears that I got "punked" again by way of moving my stop up from its original level, marked on the chart by the short red line just under the consolidation area. Darn...

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Three and done today



I took three trades today... the three I outlined in earlier posts. All three stop losses, but not one was ever in the money. These were dead stinkin' losers. Losers on a day that had tremendous opportunity if one could get onboard the trend. Once again, I was insisting the market reverse direction and the market said no. I need to reexamine my mental biases against trend trading. My first impulse this morning was to go with the trend, but I simply marked the chart with the orange line instead of clicking the mouse. I am not clear as to why... I'll be giving a lot of thought to why I look for mean reversion/reversals when I am under pressure/anxiety. It is a peculiar bias. If I had taken that first trade long instead of just marking the chart, I would have been in for a big ride on a winner because my rules of exit would have kept me in for the entire day; no stop-out and a +$2.00 gain. Anyway, it was not to be.



There's always tomorrow.

stopped out again




Took another short at a really bad place, looking for a breakdown as price dipped. This was the bottom of consolidation chop just as price was reversing up... a truly bush-league move. My head is not in this right now. The best way to tell if one is making bad decisions is when one takes a trade and gets caught going the wrong way as price turns and goes the other. That's what I did. I am taking the "obvious" trades, ones that are exploited by the experienced traders on the correct side of the action. Getting caught on the wrong foot this way is purely emotional, reactive trading. It doesn't fit with the amount of training I have done and my cahrt-reading abilities.
Quite frankly, I know what is causing this. Anxiety will wreak havoc with a person's trading senses and we have plenty in our lives right now. For a week I have been struggling with eating correctly, maintaining my exercise regimen, and retaining the confidence that I will be able to continue with learning to trade full-time. Financial pressures are building at home because Mrs. Bluecollar and her employer of 15 years parted ways a few months ago. They had treated her like garbage for years, as I have mentioned once or twice on this blog. Neither of us are working currently. Second shift jobs are rare around here, and that is what I need to keep my days free to trade. A lot of people depend on her and me, which makes it hard to make the substantial changes in lifestyle necessary to keep me learning to trade full time. This is incredibly frustrating, to be so close to success and not able to quite grasp it. I am on the right path, but not ready to trade live yet. With the need to be profitable always weighing on my mind, it is easy for me to force trades. And that is exactly what beginners do... which is why my decisions of late are akin to a beginner's. This is always a mental game.

shorted again, and stopped out




Shorted again and stopped out. momo has stalled with small candles and weak volume.


One interesting thing to note... I mentioned earlier in my first post today that the short orange line pointing to the 9:40 candle was my first reaction; I was thinking about going long. The thing to note is that the pullback from 9:55 through 10:20 am came back to that very level. Price retests the "obvious or impulse" decision areas. And those areas don't always show on a 5-minute chart. If you look at the 10:40 am candle now, you won't see the price action that caused the "impulse decions" of those traders. My guess is that a bunch of real-money traders got short at the price where I put that orange line. Like my first impulse, buyers were on the other side, the correct side of the trade and price moved up. Price came back down here, however; panicked shorts who didn't stop out gave a huge sigh of relief and covered, sending the price back up on this current leg of the uptrend.

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Trading is Gamesmanship.

coincidence? I say no...



The pullback did come slightly later than I expected, but isn't it interesting that the pullback came down to my short entry spot, then bounced up.

How do I know I am not ready for real money trading? Because I was part of the herd that impulsively went short at that 55.84 level. Price continued up then came back down to retest it, the shorts there at 55.84 who didn't stop out during the pop bought to cover and the price jumped as a result (see chart).

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Might get some consolidation here...

first of the day




stopped out on the first of the day. sure seems like momo has slowed though. expecting a pull back or drop here. Orange line pointing to the 9:40 candle indicates my first impulse: to go long with the trend... that would have been the smart play. I still must work on not going for reversal plays as a matter of habit. Price is climbing as I write this so the pull back is not imminent.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

last two of the day











Here are the last two practice trades of the day. I basically slept the afternoon away, just coming back to the computer for the last 50 minutes or so. I was feeling really lousy today overall, but punished my health by gorging on about eight pieces of peanut butter fudge around lunch time. That sugar caused my body to spike and crash. Bad idea.

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TNA was not available to short so I went to BIDU. I felt a momo change was imminent so I went long and got punked on that long candle wick; stopped out. I was committed to my idea so I then went long again after price stabilized in the next candle. I stayed in until the price climb seemed to hit a ceiling, then sold a 45 cent winner, skipping the rules of engagement on exits like I did earlier. I went for winners today and it felt good to give up nearly two weeks of losing by stopouts.

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These are my last two of the day. I feel like garbage right now after punishing my body with the sugar infused, tasty poison! It was definitely not worth it based on how I feel now... and I don't want to exercise in this lousy physical state, so it is a double whammy.

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I believe I'll go outside and take a couple mile walk, the rain has stopped and the sun is back out. I have been walking on the treadmill since last Autumn, so some fresh air might help my mind and body.

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UPDATE AFTER POSTING: Price in BIDU has been below my exit level ever since I got out. But with just 6 minutes left in the day, it has reached back up there again and is now pushing well beyond. Exited too soon, though I liked the size of my winner. See top chart for big EOD push from BIDU. Looks like I should have stuck with it... price is now at 146.40 and I'd have more than doubled my gain by holding into the last minute of the day.

Exit, I couldn't resist



Broke my rules but I couldn't resist taking this + 70 cents winner accompanied by ramped up volume. Looks like a reversal play short, perhaps for a scalp (?) would be good here.

third trade today



I had two early stop outs then went long for this one here that is working so far. When it took off, I moved the stop up. Original stop is at the short red line.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

first trade since my losing streak earlier




After watching the market for the second half of the trading session, I took this long in BIDU when I thought the market might make a little late day pop. I had a 40 cent winner in BIDU but because it was only 3:40 pm and I still needed 5 mins before I could exit a trade without stopping it out, I couldn't take the gain. While writing this, price has dropped down and I had to stop it out inside my window of opportunity; it was stopped out at 3:45:40 seconds. Bummer, the pop ended just before I could take the money and run. Doesn't matter, I picked a good spot to go long with the direction of a short-term trend, had an acceptable gain, and kept faithful to my exit rules even though it was so close. The only one I would have hurt by cashing it in early would have been me, so all stop out losses today but ending on what I consider a positive note.

Done and just watching

My natural reaction, for some reason, is to look for the reversal and play for mean reversion. It has been so since I started practice trading. Riding the prevailing trend is not what comes to mind when I see movement. This is unfortunate on days like today. I have been really punished, expecting a turn when the market is uni-directional. Makes for a frustrating day. On any of those trades against trend, I could have waited until price hit the 7 EMA and entered short on the next candle as it started to go down and I would have been in on a spectacular winner trade. After all, my trading rules would keep me from taking early gains. Terrific on a day like today. But that requires a mental lightness and flexibility that eludes me today.
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A couple weeks ago, when I first started committing to my strict exit rules, I was finally in a mental state that allowed me to go with trend. In addition to the elation from stopping out consistently and not taking profits far too early after nice entries, I was going with trend instead of this old habit. I am clearly back to entrenched, "safe & comfortable" thinking. But safe is not successful.
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As I write this, price has popped after bottoming seven cents below my last stop out. But, any one of the losses could have been "the bottom" before the reversal. After all, with so many of them, I was bound to find the bottom eventually!
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On the bright side of the road, I hit every stop out, without hesitation. I did get one really lousy fill, but that is the market talking its language. On a day like today though, I wonder how I would have reacted if it was real money? That is where my uncertainty lies now. The fact that the last two put a twinge in my gut tells me that I am taking them seriously. But, until real cash is on the line, I won't know for sure.
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Now I must think again, like I began to do a couple weeks ago, to trade against my habit and go WITH trend.

stopped again



This one stings, even though I am trying hard to manage emotions. Also feels like a "head fake" or punked move. I think the big move up I've been trying for is very close, just

because of how sharp that down move was and how volume was ramping at what might likely be the end of the trend.

long and added to the winner



Long again, and added when it looked strong. Only adding to winners... of course chances are it will be a stop-loss because I can only exit on stop out or EOD.

stopped again



stopped out for the fourth time trying to trade against a prominent trend. Way past the time to stop and watch...

Another bite at the apple. Long again



Am I revenge trading? Not sure, it doesn't feel that way. I just believe that what moves in one direction must also move the other way eventually. It's all about timing... on all three stopouts so far, I have been very close to a momo change. It's just that when movement is all in one direction during a day, those reversal moves turn out to be small pullbacks lacking commitment by buyers (in this case of a dropping market).

Third time's a charm? Long again.








Long again, then stopped out... again!




One of these days I learn to reverse direction.

stopped out



stopped out again, price going down. It's frustrating that I tend to favor reversal plays even if the trend is strongly in one direction.

Long again, against the major trend




Long again, maybe in choppy consolidation. Time will tell if I'm trading in choppy conditions here. My gut tells me I might be in the Suckers' Channel, where I will get stopped out on progressively lower channel boundary pushes up and down until stops are tripped, weak hands are forced out, and new money and big money can dictate the terms.

just a pullback?



It appears at the moment that the momo shift I tried to capitalize on

earlier might have only been a pullback. price is dipping again.

stopped out







stopped out, but on the lookout for it happening very near the bottom of this trend. my sense is a reversal of some sort is near at hand...



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second screen shot shows the pop I was waiting for but I was typing this post and missed it. stopped out 5 cents from the bottom. Darn, and I knew it was coming. As I have observed often, it takes great tactical skills once one can feel momentum changes are coming...