TNA dropped to and retreated from $73.20 support seven times throughout the day so on the eighth, I decided the breakdown was probable and paper-traded short there. Nope, it bounced again. I held for the breakdown that I KNEW was coming before the close. Price came down to same support again at 3:45pm candle... "Vindication!" says I. Opportunity to escape, breaking-even and lucky, right there, but hope is a nasty thing in trading. The traders slapped me again while I hoped for the breakdown by sending it soaring into the close. I am short over the weekend; dumb-ass.
Conventional T/A wisdom states that the more times S/R holds, the stronger it is (Read: higher probablilty of maintaining itself). Often I find myself over-thinking, or better stated, complicating things. It is a tremendous challenge trying to find the balance between following simple T/A principles or making decisions by "gaming" the premise that the market has a goal of fooling the most people it can. Today, simple T/A won. I was too clever by half.
