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Tuesday, May 14, 2013
May 14 (Loss $139.94)
Watching the open... TNA up during the first 6 minutes.
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9:57 am Short 500 TNA at $48.19.
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10:12 I found that I am short here with everyone else. And being with the herd, being part of the consensus, is usually a losing proposition. I had an opportunity to exit with a $35 gain at the 10:05 candle timeframe and considered it. I should learn to trust my instincts; price now at 48.28 and showing higher ambitions.
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10:18 TNA momentum has stalled for the time being at / just under 48.30. Looks like a reversal candle now that we're out that candle and into the 10:20. Short term pullback expected... so the question is, do I exit even? Market will give me a chance here, if typical market behavior holds. I'm even now and every time the market dips a bit, buyers pop the stock back to my price. Typical behavior of a stock at the 'consensus level' where where shorts who are there with me buy to cover from the anxiety of seeing TNA run up through the last two candles. The hard part is deciding if the stock will drop once the anxious shorts get flat and then reveal whether there are natural buyers here. No buyers = stock drops and puts me in the money.
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10:51 Wrong choice. SPY is virtually straight up since the open; having touched the 7 ema once at the start of today's session. This rally is dumbfounding, and it continues. I was watching David Tepper on CNBC this morning and his bullish comments sent the market up. Smart guy giving the markets another excuse to shoot the moon. My bad choice for not stopping out. I am now short at $48.46 with 1500 shares of TNA. Stupid is as stupid does?
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Just did some chart review... today so far is the third biggest daily run-up in SPY since mid-April; the day is only half done. I believe that it was designed to punish more shorts, causing them to cover... a short-covering rally.
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11:10 SPY finally touched the 7 ema in this candle. My goodness.
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11:17 TNA stalled for the past three candles. Based on how hard the SPY has moved up today, I am holding my shares for now. I will likely take off 1000 shares at or near breakeven like many other traders intend to do. Getting a good fill will be difficult because the big players know I and others like me are looking for the exits. Making bad decisions comes with a price.
Based on the run up today, I believe my price is a good one to produce some gains on the short side. But I don't expect TNA or SPY to collapse short-term producing very nice gains unless some negative headline crosses the news wires.
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11:35 TNA has put in 2 doji candles in the last 6 on the 5 min chart and the usually reliable reversal indicator of a doji at 11:00 on the 15 minute chart. Yet, it is continuing higher. SPY is slowed and appears to be consolidating around the 164.90 level, pushing up for a a possible short-term s=double top. However, it is still above the 7 ema, indicating strength.
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12:00 TNA will not drop. This is freakish today. These days come along once or twice a month and it screws the chances at reversion gains. The Federal Reserve is in the debt markets like a fiend today, buying without a care... and the stock market is responding. Good news is a screaming buy, bad news is a slight up day, very bad news is a very slight down day.
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12:14 SPY still hasn't been close to touching the 17 ema yet since the open today. It is registering nearly 98 on the historical chart stochastic. Also it is at the upper trend line that defines the post November 2012 rally.
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12:18 TNA pushing new hod.
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12;30 TNA pulling back slightly. Just bought 500 TZA in our retirement account at $31.88
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12:35 SPY & TNA just touched the 17 ema for the first time today; holding that moving average right now. I'm now thinking that it has been a long time since I was fooled this badly on a mean reversion play; that is to say, shorting so early in a large breakout day. I was using my new edge info as an indicator and it distorted my results.
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12:50 TNA just closed below the 17 ema but is certainly not breaking down in any way. If it does retreat today, chances are that it will be slow and not very far; probably through or after periods of consolidation.
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1:45 TNA has basically gone nowhere over the past hour and fifteen minutes; trading in a 15 cent range on light volume. This does not bode well for a late day pullback. More likely it will consolidate into the close or run up strongly into the close. With possible pullback sometime tomorrow. I am not excited to hold this many shares overnight however. Hoping to get out near even before day's end... like so many others. And that-- is perhaps a reason it won't happen.
It is interesting to note that taking into account my price and the high of the day, there has been a 50% Fib retracement four times as of right now.
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1:57 Exited 1000 shares of TNA, loss of $139.94. Keeping the remaining 500 shares for now. Also exited my TZA shares in the retirement account for a $104.76 gain.
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2:02 My trade is now slightly positive. I'd actually have a $40 gain on the whole lot had I not scaled out.
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2:28 Now down and hovering around my entry price. Looking for a drop to the 48.30 area, if it decides to drop more. It is no accident that my price is acting as support; many like me made the same bad decision and are buying to cover, driving the price up.
Being in the herd (part of consensus) is a bad place to be- leaving one predictably vulnerable. -- *emphasis on 'predictably'
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3:42 Still holding my last 500 shares of TNA short at 48.46. In hindsight, I should have dumped them all my shares in one of the four candle/timeframes when they were at or near break even. The stock was behaving like it might drop a bit more in the 2:50 pm timeframe. Now we are pushing the highs of the day here at the close. As I noted in an earlier post, this is common. Especially on Central Bank-induced, short squeeze big rally days.
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Also, I went long 250 shares of TZA at $31.91 at 3:40pm in the retirement account.
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4:01 What a disappointment today. A day with a great deal of promise but I changed my approach based on some signals I have been watching over the past three trading days and it altered my entry decision. My original thought was that this new method was a great way to keep me in a trade because it gave me a sense of when each leg (minor trend) of a move would end- In other words, and exit signal. Why I used it as an entry, I still can't decipher. Unfamiliarity with it? My predilection to do reversion trades rather than trend trades? Whatever the reason, it led to a loss today and I am holding some unrealized losses that I think will reverse for tomorrow. The fact that this S & P rally has run SO FAR and is at an upper trend line say to me that a move down is likely.
9:57 am Short 500 TNA at $48.19.
--------
10:12 I found that I am short here with everyone else. And being with the herd, being part of the consensus, is usually a losing proposition. I had an opportunity to exit with a $35 gain at the 10:05 candle timeframe and considered it. I should learn to trust my instincts; price now at 48.28 and showing higher ambitions.
--------
10:18 TNA momentum has stalled for the time being at / just under 48.30. Looks like a reversal candle now that we're out that candle and into the 10:20. Short term pullback expected... so the question is, do I exit even? Market will give me a chance here, if typical market behavior holds. I'm even now and every time the market dips a bit, buyers pop the stock back to my price. Typical behavior of a stock at the 'consensus level' where where shorts who are there with me buy to cover from the anxiety of seeing TNA run up through the last two candles. The hard part is deciding if the stock will drop once the anxious shorts get flat and then reveal whether there are natural buyers here. No buyers = stock drops and puts me in the money.
--------
10:51 Wrong choice. SPY is virtually straight up since the open; having touched the 7 ema once at the start of today's session. This rally is dumbfounding, and it continues. I was watching David Tepper on CNBC this morning and his bullish comments sent the market up. Smart guy giving the markets another excuse to shoot the moon. My bad choice for not stopping out. I am now short at $48.46 with 1500 shares of TNA. Stupid is as stupid does?
--------
Just did some chart review... today so far is the third biggest daily run-up in SPY since mid-April; the day is only half done. I believe that it was designed to punish more shorts, causing them to cover... a short-covering rally.
--------
11:10 SPY finally touched the 7 ema in this candle. My goodness.
---------
11:17 TNA stalled for the past three candles. Based on how hard the SPY has moved up today, I am holding my shares for now. I will likely take off 1000 shares at or near breakeven like many other traders intend to do. Getting a good fill will be difficult because the big players know I and others like me are looking for the exits. Making bad decisions comes with a price.
Based on the run up today, I believe my price is a good one to produce some gains on the short side. But I don't expect TNA or SPY to collapse short-term producing very nice gains unless some negative headline crosses the news wires.
---------
11:35 TNA has put in 2 doji candles in the last 6 on the 5 min chart and the usually reliable reversal indicator of a doji at 11:00 on the 15 minute chart. Yet, it is continuing higher. SPY is slowed and appears to be consolidating around the 164.90 level, pushing up for a a possible short-term s=double top. However, it is still above the 7 ema, indicating strength.
---------
12:00 TNA will not drop. This is freakish today. These days come along once or twice a month and it screws the chances at reversion gains. The Federal Reserve is in the debt markets like a fiend today, buying without a care... and the stock market is responding. Good news is a screaming buy, bad news is a slight up day, very bad news is a very slight down day.
----------
12:14 SPY still hasn't been close to touching the 17 ema yet since the open today. It is registering nearly 98 on the historical chart stochastic. Also it is at the upper trend line that defines the post November 2012 rally.
----------
12:18 TNA pushing new hod.
----------
12;30 TNA pulling back slightly. Just bought 500 TZA in our retirement account at $31.88
----------
12:35 SPY & TNA just touched the 17 ema for the first time today; holding that moving average right now. I'm now thinking that it has been a long time since I was fooled this badly on a mean reversion play; that is to say, shorting so early in a large breakout day. I was using my new edge info as an indicator and it distorted my results.
----------
12:50 TNA just closed below the 17 ema but is certainly not breaking down in any way. If it does retreat today, chances are that it will be slow and not very far; probably through or after periods of consolidation.
----------
1:45 TNA has basically gone nowhere over the past hour and fifteen minutes; trading in a 15 cent range on light volume. This does not bode well for a late day pullback. More likely it will consolidate into the close or run up strongly into the close. With possible pullback sometime tomorrow. I am not excited to hold this many shares overnight however. Hoping to get out near even before day's end... like so many others. And that-- is perhaps a reason it won't happen.
It is interesting to note that taking into account my price and the high of the day, there has been a 50% Fib retracement four times as of right now.
----------
1:57 Exited 1000 shares of TNA, loss of $139.94. Keeping the remaining 500 shares for now. Also exited my TZA shares in the retirement account for a $104.76 gain.
----------
2:02 My trade is now slightly positive. I'd actually have a $40 gain on the whole lot had I not scaled out.
----------
2:28 Now down and hovering around my entry price. Looking for a drop to the 48.30 area, if it decides to drop more. It is no accident that my price is acting as support; many like me made the same bad decision and are buying to cover, driving the price up.
Being in the herd (part of consensus) is a bad place to be- leaving one predictably vulnerable. -- *emphasis on 'predictably'
----------
3:42 Still holding my last 500 shares of TNA short at 48.46. In hindsight, I should have dumped them all my shares in one of the four candle/timeframes when they were at or near break even. The stock was behaving like it might drop a bit more in the 2:50 pm timeframe. Now we are pushing the highs of the day here at the close. As I noted in an earlier post, this is common. Especially on Central Bank-induced, short squeeze big rally days.
----------
Also, I went long 250 shares of TZA at $31.91 at 3:40pm in the retirement account.
---------
4:01 What a disappointment today. A day with a great deal of promise but I changed my approach based on some signals I have been watching over the past three trading days and it altered my entry decision. My original thought was that this new method was a great way to keep me in a trade because it gave me a sense of when each leg (minor trend) of a move would end- In other words, and exit signal. Why I used it as an entry, I still can't decipher. Unfamiliarity with it? My predilection to do reversion trades rather than trend trades? Whatever the reason, it led to a loss today and I am holding some unrealized losses that I think will reverse for tomorrow. The fact that this S & P rally has run SO FAR and is at an upper trend line say to me that a move down is likely.
May 13 ($0)
No trades. Still evaluating the potential addition to my edge. Looks good when markets are moving, deceiving or valueless when stagnant.
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