I really felt like I was struggling today. Same issue as yesterday. I got on the wrong side of large moves, anticipating reversals.. which didn't show up in a timely way! Between 12:20 and 2:04 pm, I was 4 for 11, only a 36% win rate; losing about 98 cents per share. Clearly, I have to figure this out as it is a pattern I'm in and have been since I started trading the high-ADR ETF's. Let's face it, losses are part of trading. And while I've only had one losing day in March thus far, I absolutely MUST figure this problem out in order to become a consistently profitable trader. The big losses I had in February with this "dysfunction" are just around the corner despite some recent success. There are two approaches I could take here. Accept the fact that I can be wrong on an entry, learn how to recognize it faster and cut losses short (perhaps even reverse direction), OR... try to perfect my entries to the point where very few big losses can occur! The problem with the latter solution is that it is akin to "picking intra-day tops and bottoms;" generally considered nearly impossible.
Perhaps there is a combination of the two which will work for me as I paper-trade. Meanwhile, I'm off to drink the nectar of the Gods... Guiness Extra Stout!
10 for 17 trades, a 59% success rate. Gain of 89.8 cents per share.
