"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Here's why my TNA / TZA trades are struggling to come to fruition...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/short-squeeze-continues


"The 'most shorted' names in the Russell 3000 are up a remarkable 1.4% today compared to 0.45% in the index itself. The short-squeeze off the NFP gap-down lows is impressive indeed. From the open last Friday, the 'most short' names are up 6.6% against the index up only 3.5% as the dash for trash continues in the face of increasingly dismal data. The last 2 times that the 'most short' index was this squeezed relative to the index was late-December (before the equity dip) and mid-Fed (before the equity dip). Just as we warned here and here, the inexorable flow of easy money means the dash-for-trash (as remarkably ridiculous as it seems - though as now know nothing is allowed to fail ever again) has been the winning trade; though as we note below, there is a limit to the 'squeezability' and we appear to be there in the short term.

The 'most short' names have been smashed higher in the last few days with Tuesday and today being more epic squeezes..."
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Here's what has happened when it gets like this:


THIS IS WHY I'M HOLDING. 

Today... ( Gain: $51.27 )

Still holding my TNA short but have shorted 750 more shares at 44.39 giving me a full position short at an average price of $44.11.
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Also preparing to go long TZA in our retirement account if a certain trigger is hit.

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11:13am:   Long 2000 shares of TZA at $36.61 in my TDA account.

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12:01pm:  Had a $550 gain in my TZA trade but I'm holding.  Same with my TNA, holding.  I think the market is going to give back all of today's run-up, if not more.
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1:41pm:   QQQ and SPY rallying but TNA/TZA are not going for it.  They are holding price while the markets pump.  That relationship is a good sign for my trades.

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1:54pm:   Exit both positions; TNA out at $44.08 and TZA out at $37.02.
                Gain of $44 in TNA and $800 in TZA.  Looking for a chance now to enter the other way.    

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2:10pm;   Went long TNA 250 shares but exited with a tiny gain of $7.27 when it just sat there and did nothing.  Basically, I'm looking for a big volume flush on the downside in TNA before going long with any conviction.  And, it is important to note that I exited far too soon on my overnight short of TNA and my long trade in TZA.  I left 23 cents on the table in TNA; $230 that I didn't book.  In TZA, I left $360 behind by getting out.

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2:23pm:   Looks like that TNA long I put on at 2:05pm is getting some 'run;'  up to $44.04.  My guess is that it will pop to about $44.15 area.

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2:36pm:   And it has already hit $44.17...  Left up to 22 cents per share on the table by exiting my         2:06pm trade too soon.  So much of trading is trusting what one has learned.
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3:26pm:   Some choppiness here in TNA, though the moves would pay if one could get in and out in a timely way.  If this thing jumps with authority, I'm going to short (lightly) into it for overnight.  We are still way too high on this 5 day move in the Small Caps, in my opinion.

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3:44pm:   TNA has given up its gains from the morning rally, as I had suspected it might.  Getting a little bump here in the last 15 minutes.  We're not getting a serious pop in TNA such that I would short it overnight.  I was looking for it to run up near the 44.45 area as a test of the 1:00pm peak.

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3:59pm:   Shorted 250 shares of TNA at 43.93 for the overnight.  My gut tells me this thing is coming down some more, even if it opens with gap up.  Entering small and seeing what tomorrow brings.  I think $42 is conceivable.