Got short at 42.87 250 shares TNA only 4 mins after the open. My sense was that the market would break yesterday afternoon and when it didn't, I'd try it at the open. It was a bad spot to try it as well as a bad fill, so I had to sit through some volatility. When it dropped quickly, I took my little gain of $12.77 and waited for a better price to short. It really didn't come- market was going lower and that was that. I shorted again, 250 shares at 42.84 at 9:35. Covered at 9:52, 250 shares at 42.63. Gain $50.28. It went about 10 cents lower then reversed. Sellers back in charge now and it's headed for yesterday's opening consolidation spot (before it took off).
10:06 A lot of volatility and consolidation here in the 42.55 area.
10:40 It's been so long since I've seen movement that I'm re-acclimating myself to it.
11:33 Short 250 shares TNA at 43.26
12:11 I'm still holding with SPY having hit what I think is a firm resistance area at 11:50 am, 159.55. QQQ did the same at 11:50 for its resistance level.
My price is below the current consolidation area by 4 or 5 cents so I am a bit concerned about that. Not to mention that TNA is holding support at its 7 ema; 17 ema is still pointing up as well.
12:16 TNA is down and holding my entry price as support. Not always a good sign in my experience... let's see what comes next. Ok, just broke my price level but held the 17 ema. We need to crack that with some energy before I can call this trade a success.
12:19 17 ema held, mimicked by the QQQ and SPY holding their 17 ema at the same time. Looks like there is parity in the three for now.
12:28 Still short and price is still holding close to my entry price. That tells me I'm one of a large number sitting here. Consensus is not where I like to be as a trader. The 'consensus' is often fleeced. I'd rather be short at the 43.40 level, that would be where the smart money got in. I'm only in for a quarter position with 250 shares so I will wait and see what happens here.
12:34 As I suspected, my entry price held as support and price has jumped. If a trader is with large numbers of other traders at a certain price, and if 90% of everyone who does this loses money, does it not follow that being where lots of other traders are is a losing proposition? Now, if I were to wait for a large pop then add to my short, wouldn't also many others like me do the same? And wouldn't then the experienced, smart money know how much further to push price to get us to 'throw in the towel?' Then reverse price and go where we had first thought price would go?
Smart money knows where traders are resting and holding, sweating and hoping for movement that favors them. Reading "Trade The Trader" by Quint Tatro taught me that. The more I do this, the more I begin to understand that there is only ONE WAY to trade that will protect you always from the smart money: setting a stop, honoring it, and either reversing direction or waiting for a better price to go the same way you just were trying to go before stopping out. The secret is to not get chopped up with stop-outs in consolidation.
Even more basic is the ability to psychologically accept the stop loss. This is the achilles heel of human beings. We are not programmed to take the loss... reading "Trading In The Zone" by Mark Douglas taught me that. This is one of my last lines to cross. I still struggle with the Letting Go required to succeed at this. Even as my chart reading skills improve, I will never truly be a person prepared for a trading career, a trader immune from blowing up my account until I can master the mental aspects of trading. And my self-awareness of this weakness is a primary reason why I continue to trade in small share lots, along with more experience with momentum analysis and mastery. Of course, trading small share lots will restrict my financial success.
1:03 SPY is poised right at the doorstep to record highs... will it break upward or retreat?
1:19 SPY gearing up for possible run to new highs; tightly consolidating while also holding the 7 ema as support. It will have to break strong resistance at 159.63 however.
One never truly knows what the market will do, but my gut is telling me it will break upward... there was too much volume the first hour today to not be big traders entering on the dip for a push toward new all-time highs. Just my opinion...
1:25 Doji at 159.62 on SPY. Price in TNA dipping to the 17 ema and holding for now. 7 ema holding for the QQQ and SPY. This feels like a breakout.
1:28 QQQ and SPY looking like a retreat below the moving average, but buyers stepped in briefly. TNA dropping in price, now at 43.44
1:38 QQQ sticking close but just below the 7 ema. SPY held the 17 ema and is now up under the 7 ema. TNA established a doji at the 7 ema and just now put in another candle with very close open/close price. Are the big traders prepping for a run at history?
1:42 TNA just cracked and came down to 43.39 then jumped when buyers (black boxes?) stepped in and sent it back up.
1:50 SPY reaching HOD and holding... TNA not as enthusiastic and is holding the 43.45 area. SPY all time top print is 159.71 and sits at 159.65 now.
1:54 TNA shows flattened 17 ema and a continuing downward slope of 7 ema; price some 20 cents off the HOD. SPY up to 159.68 before retracing only slightly. QQQ holding the middle area of the consolidation between 70.66 and 70.72.
2:02 Indices shrink from new highs, TNA following suit. QQQ and SPY are at the 17 ema and threatening a breakdown through there. Looking for 159.40 area for SPY if this continues.
2:05 TNA broke down to my price level of 43.26 then jumped up like it was scalded. Remember what I wrote about consensus in an earlier post today? Everyone was there with me, which is why the trade didn't work, by the way. And as soon as price hit that exact spot, everyone covered with a deep sigh of relief, sending price up with all the buying! Now, once that rush of buyers is gone, price should drop again on its way to its eventual support.
2:09 Price of TNA back down to my level but holding... still some buyers there. However, SPY has sunk below my targeted 159.40 and is picking up support at 159.33. If it holds, TNA might actually stay at my level or go up. So far, that appears to be the case.
2:19 SPY and TNA trying to drop but finding buyers; SPY at 159.35 and 43.35
2:20 TNA just printed a doji on the 5 min chart. QQQ also.
2:27 TNA rising still after using my entry price as support. Evaluation: the 2:05 candle was the sixth candle that tried and failed to break support at 43.26 after I got short there. 11:35, 12:15,12:20, 12:25, 2:00, and 2:05. That is a clue as to the strength of this level. It also goes to show how aggressive and perhaps foolish it was on my part to keep my trade when it hit these levels during the 12:15 and 2:00 timeframes. There's no difference between the foolish notion of going short at these areas when price is reaching there after a downtrend (12:15, 2:00) and HOLDING my trade thinking it would break down through that area giving me a positive trade. Now, if TNA does break down below, it will be a strategy that pays, which is what I'm thinking it will do before EOD. But, is it wise as an intra-day trader? I'm thinking that over.
2:39 TNA dipped on very low volume then in the next candle hit 43.20 support below my entry price giving me a small gain but I did not cover like the masses did... those who sent it soaring up on a volume spike in the 2:35 candle. I'm being aggressive by holding, a luxury I feel I have because of my small share count, in hopes that this whole thing will come down to the mid or lower price levels of today. So far, we have lower highs but not lower lows since around 1:00pm. Considering the volume as price hit 43.26 and just below it, the 2:35pm candle may have been my last chance today to get out of this trade without a loss. It all depends on EOD.
2:51 Price has maintained its lower highs for now. Could be that the big volume spike and price hike at 2:35 was more people covering at the 43.20 level rather than natural buyers coming in with hopes of new highs? Not sure just yet about that idea. A quick dip to 43.30 at 2:53 was bought aggressively and price is now back up to the 7 ema. It seems there might be buyers all through the 43.25 to 43.35 channel.
3:16 Sure looked like TNA was going to break down at 3:00, but buyers came in and defended 43.26 once again, for the ninth time since I shorted at 11:33am. in my favor, it appears that TNA is continuing to hold the trendline of lower highs, currently testing that line now with increasing volume.
3:28 TNA moves above the trend line then sells down below it. Channeling since 2:00pm between 43.26 and 43.45 and is testing that higher limit now. SPY just put in a doji at 3:25 on the 5 min chart; 3rd one in the last 4 candles. If it is going down, it will happen soon. QQQ held below the 17 ema.
An evaluation of the 15 minute TNA chart shows lots of long wicks below the 43.35 level. Just goes to show how hard the area is being defended.
The large relative volume in the 42.70 area from yesterday morning and the larger volume in the same area as price dipped there around 10:00 am this morning shows that there is strength in TNA here. "Buy the dips" is what is going on. This rally is unbelievable, freakish :-).
3:51 SPY right at the all time high. QQQ isn't. TNA is not following either, not yet anyway, though volume coming in.
4:01 Holding. Price rocketed into the close, with a lot of volatility in the final candle. Open down tomorrow?
