Ok, my first day trying to catch momentum in a bottle, so to speak. Didn't go as well as I had wanted. I did not add to losers today, although with so many manual stop outs, I sure had plenty of opportunities to do it. My average stop-loss was a shade over 7 cents so that seems ok. Largest stop loss was 10 cents. In a number of cases, I took tiny gains rather than letting it stop out and in virtually all of them, I was right to do so, preventing the inevitable stop-loss. On one stop-out that I remember, it turned out to be a pullback. I stopped it out, then it promptly turned back to trend and kept on going. That was a bit frustrating. I think the most frustrating thing is looking back at a terrific trend and knowing that I had managed to lose on it. But, as all of you know, it's not necessarily a trend while it's going on...only when it is done.
So, I was hoping to get a good start today but the market said no. I hooked into a good trade of 18 cents at 11:01 am through 11:11 am. That felt great and got the day back on track after a slower than necessary stop-out just prior. It was tough going from there with only one winner out of 6 until after 2:00 pm. I was looking at all the right things, it seemed. I was constantly asking myself, often out loud, "what is volume doing? Are the indices in my favor? Is price stalling here or is it just resting? Is that change of direction just a fake-out?" Etc. Talking to yourself does not help, as I found out. I hope this isn't coming across as defeatist, it's supposed to portray frustration. Some days, like today, I think the opportunity costs are too high and that I should be working on my business instead. Yet, I keep plugging along. Trading will have to yield to my day-job soon. I have been neglecting my work in favor of the markets and for a couple weeks really felt like I was on the right track... that is until last Thursday. Clearly, I have a long journey in front of me to learn the markets and I must work the day-job more than I have been. I have been taking the day-job for granted over the past two months in anticipation of making up the difference by trading for winners. I'm sure many of you have encountered the same thing in one form or another.
I wonder if I'm fooling myself by thinking that if I study enough FNG charts and map enough volume spikes off today's charts that I'll get the answer. I still have the notion that it is like cracking a safe; you try and try and try, then finally you get it!! You've stumbled on the combination! "There it was all the time, and now I've got it, " you would say to yourself in that glorious moment. After all, I and many of you are looking at the same things (for the most part) as the people who do this successfully; five-min candlesticks, charts of the indices, average day range, volume bars, etc. What are we missing if we see the exact same picture as them? Is it one of those optical illusion pictures where you can either see the Old Hag or the Pretty Lass depending on your perspective? If so, I'm ready to see the pretty lass. That Old Hag is making me sick! Ha! Ha!
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Mrs. Bluecollar and I were having this discussion on the way home from an errand about the apparent "mystery" or "hidden secret" and I thought I would vent it to the blog.
I just seem to have a hundred questions today and no answers... Without a clear sense of direction, I wonder how long it will take? I think of all those people who have been lost in the Maine woods over the years and died wandering in circles, never knowing that they were only a few hundred yards from the logging road that would have led them to safety.
My kingdom for a compass...
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7 for 14 winners, a 50% win rate. Loss of $181 in 6.5 hours of paper-trading. Average loss was $77.29. Average gain was $51.43.
