1:25pm: Sure seems like TNA is well on its way to a classic H & S pattern, though I am not a chart pattern expert and don't know exactly how to get the 'measured move' portion of the pattern from it. TNA just moving above it's mini trendline... some upside to go perhaps as it currently rides tightly to the 7 ema?
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1:34pm: TNA at new HOD by one cent, (40.35) but stalled there. SPY and Q's showing reversal-type 1:30pm candles with elevated volume as they continue oscillating above and below S/R. TNA still in a tight channel at 40.22. No big volume candles shown yet, however. Could be the 11:45 and 11:50am candle volumes are what passes for the end of the run? Not sure...
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1:42pm: TNA showing some volume building and going red... indices showing red and touching their 17 ema's but on virtually no volume. What dynamic at work here, I wonder? A fake move down to generate some liquidity for the ones who want to move it higher? A tired market moving down with little conviction? Around 2:00 - 2:30pm there usually is movement started in the markets, so let us see what is revealed.
I really have to get to my taxes though... so I'm now done narrating the market for my future edification. Maybe a recap at the close.
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4:12pm: TNA zoomed up in the last half-hour of today's session. The 2:00pm typical movement was to the downside, taking it to a re-test of the 39.81 support before trending nicely into the close. It hit and moved through my $40.40 to $40.50 target area. The volume surge hit at 3:35pm to lift it up out of the consolidation area resistance level of 40.27.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Long Again TNA
Long again in TNA 250 shares at $40 at 11:42am, Exited when it appeared to stall at $40.09.
Gain $21. Now price is climbing... still hard to trust my instincts... price is at $41.16 now and holding. This thing might just make a run to $40.40 where a great deal of volume from yesterday is concentrated. I think there might be some selling there... all that volume meant that there were buyers who may be looking to exit.
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BTW, I was one of those traders who was looking to sell his big overnight position as soon as it got near break-even. I too k my relatively small loss a bit earlier, and looked to regroup with smaller size. had I held, I'd have a very nice gain right now. THAT is the market at work! Fear and relief motivating activity. Anyone who says this isn't a mentally driven exercise is absolutely wrong. I can personally attest to it.
Price in TNA still climbing, $40.33 but now pulling back slightly. This is going higher... I can feel it. But I will wait for a potential reverse area, if one presents itself. Of course, that is what started my trouble yesterday... fading trend.
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12:13pm: Stepped away from the computer as TNA continued to pull back slowly. Taking a practice trade long here to see if TNA will climb another 30 cents or so to 40.40 - 40.50 area. Indices are not showing much sign of continued energy so I'm not putting real money to work for this idea yet, if at all.
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I still have to finish my taxes, due today for Maine and Massachussets because of yesterday's Patriot's Day holiday. I will likely have lunch then focus on meeting my IRS obligation and glance over to the screens for the most glaring opportunities.
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12:37pm: Lunch at the desk. SPY just tested its HOD yet TNA said 'meh' and stayed middle of consolidation; relative weakness to the indices. Says to me that TNA is going to pull back. If the Indices pull back, TNA will likely accelerate to the downside. If SPY makes an up-move, TNA will likely lag that move based on what traders are doing with it right now.
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12:41pm: TNA has pulled down to the 17 ema while SPY remains at the 7ema mid-consolidation area. Isn't it "interesting" that TNA's current support is the exact price where I had gone long yesterday? That's the market at work... areas of purchase and sale tend to be the same across the market in a particular stock. Why? Because people are basically the same... Thats why markets have patterns that repeat over the years and decades. People respond to fear and greed, etc. And the patterns repeat because so many people respond to the emotional aspects of trading... that's also why the reports say that up to 90% of people fail at trading. The 10% who win have mastered their human impulses to act out of emotion. That's the simple explanation, in my relatively inexperienced opinion. Of course, other things are at work... big players manipulating the markets, etc. But I believe those manipulations are designed to trigger trades by instilling fear and greed in others in the markets. Basically, they do it to prod the weaker positions to expose themselves and react. The bigger the player forcing the markets in one way or another, the bigger the player from whom they can force a liquidation. The market is a construct designed to separate the foolish, arrogant, careless, cocky, fearful, character-weak players from their money. See? All the normal human emotions are the leverage by which a market participant loses to others who are forcing them into a position where they have to make decisions about whether or not to sell or cover.
It just so happens that this jousting produces the most important mechanism on which a capitalist economy rests.
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12:57pm: TNA pushing up to its hod as SPY is running well above its HOD to 157.21 S/R line. TNA still relatively weak to the Q's and SPY, though it is in a playable move. I am not engaged right now and just watching. My 'practice trade' from earlier is working nicely though :-) It isn't paying me anything but informs me about my chart reading skills.
SPY is up substantially from yesterday's close. Even with the huge drop yesterday, I'd say odds favor the end of today's climb in SPY... or very near the end. It's at 157.19 and holding. The only caveat: There hasn't been the BIG RUSH of volume that often accompanies a primary intraday reversal. Let's see what happens...
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1:16pm: TNA just ran up a little but didn't make a new high, rather it held a trendline that started at the 12:55pm candle (HOD). I still think this MIGHT be a top for the remainder of the day (excepting an eod popup). Looks right now like TNA won't challenge the $40.40 to $40.50 area that I had targeted as a resistance line; only got to $40.34.
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1:19pm: TNA showing some life as SPY and Q's do the 'To and Fro' with their respective resistance areas. Maybe TNA will hit my target? There still hasn't been the big volume flush that accompanies many ends of trend.
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Gain $21. Now price is climbing... still hard to trust my instincts... price is at $41.16 now and holding. This thing might just make a run to $40.40 where a great deal of volume from yesterday is concentrated. I think there might be some selling there... all that volume meant that there were buyers who may be looking to exit.
------------
BTW, I was one of those traders who was looking to sell his big overnight position as soon as it got near break-even. I too k my relatively small loss a bit earlier, and looked to regroup with smaller size. had I held, I'd have a very nice gain right now. THAT is the market at work! Fear and relief motivating activity. Anyone who says this isn't a mentally driven exercise is absolutely wrong. I can personally attest to it.
Price in TNA still climbing, $40.33 but now pulling back slightly. This is going higher... I can feel it. But I will wait for a potential reverse area, if one presents itself. Of course, that is what started my trouble yesterday... fading trend.
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12:13pm: Stepped away from the computer as TNA continued to pull back slowly. Taking a practice trade long here to see if TNA will climb another 30 cents or so to 40.40 - 40.50 area. Indices are not showing much sign of continued energy so I'm not putting real money to work for this idea yet, if at all.
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I still have to finish my taxes, due today for Maine and Massachussets because of yesterday's Patriot's Day holiday. I will likely have lunch then focus on meeting my IRS obligation and glance over to the screens for the most glaring opportunities.
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12:37pm: Lunch at the desk. SPY just tested its HOD yet TNA said 'meh' and stayed middle of consolidation; relative weakness to the indices. Says to me that TNA is going to pull back. If the Indices pull back, TNA will likely accelerate to the downside. If SPY makes an up-move, TNA will likely lag that move based on what traders are doing with it right now.
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12:41pm: TNA has pulled down to the 17 ema while SPY remains at the 7ema mid-consolidation area. Isn't it "interesting" that TNA's current support is the exact price where I had gone long yesterday? That's the market at work... areas of purchase and sale tend to be the same across the market in a particular stock. Why? Because people are basically the same... Thats why markets have patterns that repeat over the years and decades. People respond to fear and greed, etc. And the patterns repeat because so many people respond to the emotional aspects of trading... that's also why the reports say that up to 90% of people fail at trading. The 10% who win have mastered their human impulses to act out of emotion. That's the simple explanation, in my relatively inexperienced opinion. Of course, other things are at work... big players manipulating the markets, etc. But I believe those manipulations are designed to trigger trades by instilling fear and greed in others in the markets. Basically, they do it to prod the weaker positions to expose themselves and react. The bigger the player forcing the markets in one way or another, the bigger the player from whom they can force a liquidation. The market is a construct designed to separate the foolish, arrogant, careless, cocky, fearful, character-weak players from their money. See? All the normal human emotions are the leverage by which a market participant loses to others who are forcing them into a position where they have to make decisions about whether or not to sell or cover.
It just so happens that this jousting produces the most important mechanism on which a capitalist economy rests.
---------------
12:57pm: TNA pushing up to its hod as SPY is running well above its HOD to 157.21 S/R line. TNA still relatively weak to the Q's and SPY, though it is in a playable move. I am not engaged right now and just watching. My 'practice trade' from earlier is working nicely though :-) It isn't paying me anything but informs me about my chart reading skills.
SPY is up substantially from yesterday's close. Even with the huge drop yesterday, I'd say odds favor the end of today's climb in SPY... or very near the end. It's at 157.19 and holding. The only caveat: There hasn't been the BIG RUSH of volume that often accompanies a primary intraday reversal. Let's see what happens...
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1:16pm: TNA just ran up a little but didn't make a new high, rather it held a trendline that started at the 12:55pm candle (HOD). I still think this MIGHT be a top for the remainder of the day (excepting an eod popup). Looks right now like TNA won't challenge the $40.40 to $40.50 area that I had targeted as a resistance line; only got to $40.34.
----------------
1:19pm: TNA showing some life as SPY and Q's do the 'To and Fro' with their respective resistance areas. Maybe TNA will hit my target? There still hasn't been the big volume flush that accompanies many ends of trend.
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still cont'd
Price is holding support to my surprise.
Now Long 250 shares TNA at 39.98. SPY struggling to break above 156.70 resistance. I'm out of TNA even (26 cent gain). Price could make another run at resistance, but I'm out and watching.
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Ultimately, I like TNA to move up to the $40.35 area, perhaps to $41.40 if the market is feeling spirited.
Now Long 250 shares TNA at 39.98. SPY struggling to break above 156.70 resistance. I'm out of TNA even (26 cent gain). Price could make another run at resistance, but I'm out and watching.
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Ultimately, I like TNA to move up to the $40.35 area, perhaps to $41.40 if the market is feeling spirited.
Still consolidating
Still consolidating at 10:36am. 7 & 17 EMA still pointed north for TNA. This thing wants to rise, it just needs to be untethered from the market... but that will never happen. They tend to be closely correlated.
SPY now dropping at 10:38, retesting 156.16 support. QQQ retesting support at 68.96. TNA is dead in the water until they make up its mind.
10:40am: TNA dropping as it channels. Now below the 7 EMA and struggling to get back above it.
Minimal volume in all three Issues.
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10:43am: SPY just ticked to LOD. Sure seems to me that SPY is being driven down to test the close from yesterday; lower highs and lower lows. Now QQQ has cracked the LOD. TNA is following. Volume pop may have indicated some buy-stops triggered in TNA? Volumes increasing in all three. Real drop or fake out?
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10:49am: SPY making new lows tick by tick but TNA still showing relative strength... hasn't yet made a new low since 10:00 am.
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QQQ's back toward the middle of consolidation but SPY still weak and holding below moving averages. TNA beginning to show some weakness at 10:52. Not good for now.
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10:57am: SPY making a run at 156.16 s/r and has recoiled after hitting it. TNA made a corresponding run up in sympathy. The markets have to break resistance here for anything to get going. The next hurdle will be a higher high on the 5-minute candles.
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Getting some volume in all three: Q's, SPY and TNA. TNA making a run at the hod.
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11:02am: SPY hung up at 156.30 resistance, which corresponds to trendline resistance. Same with Q's. TNA stalled at 39.54 as a result.
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11:06am: Indices trendlines held for now, price dropped away from them. TNA responds by dropping back into consolidation to the 7EMA. No new highs yet. Can the Q's and SPY hold a higher low? That would be some encouragement... perhaps move into a coiling pattern from the current lower lows and lower highs.
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11:09am: price pop on the indices to above their 7 EMA's leaving long lower wicks. Great sign. TNA responds with slightly higher price but hasn't 'taken off' yet. TNA volume rush as it challenges hod. New hod in TNA but indices still struggling to break trendline resistance.
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11:12am: Q's and SPY struggling as sellers continue to get out and not enough buyers to take over... trendlines still holding. TNA holding resistance at high- 39.60's. The good thing is there hasn't been a big volume spike in any of them to indicate a major reversal...
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11:18am: Price made a big run and now the big volume spikes are coming in. I exited half my TNA for a $124 loss. Exited my TDAmeritrade long in TNA at $39.82; a trade that I hadn't made notes of here on the blog. Gain there of $180.
11:21am: Exited the remaining 1000 shares of TNA after big volume spike in the 11:15 candle. Loss of $81 on that. Price pulled back from there but may run higher after the market digests this move. Yesterday was such a huge move down that there is a lot of built up energy to the upside once the selling clears. TNA holding 39.81 support.
Total loss of $205 on this trade, offset by a $180 gain in the TDA retirement account. Net loss of $25 on this fiasco.
SPY now dropping at 10:38, retesting 156.16 support. QQQ retesting support at 68.96. TNA is dead in the water until they make up its mind.
10:40am: TNA dropping as it channels. Now below the 7 EMA and struggling to get back above it.
Minimal volume in all three Issues.
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10:43am: SPY just ticked to LOD. Sure seems to me that SPY is being driven down to test the close from yesterday; lower highs and lower lows. Now QQQ has cracked the LOD. TNA is following. Volume pop may have indicated some buy-stops triggered in TNA? Volumes increasing in all three. Real drop or fake out?
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10:49am: SPY making new lows tick by tick but TNA still showing relative strength... hasn't yet made a new low since 10:00 am.
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QQQ's back toward the middle of consolidation but SPY still weak and holding below moving averages. TNA beginning to show some weakness at 10:52. Not good for now.
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10:57am: SPY making a run at 156.16 s/r and has recoiled after hitting it. TNA made a corresponding run up in sympathy. The markets have to break resistance here for anything to get going. The next hurdle will be a higher high on the 5-minute candles.
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Getting some volume in all three: Q's, SPY and TNA. TNA making a run at the hod.
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11:02am: SPY hung up at 156.30 resistance, which corresponds to trendline resistance. Same with Q's. TNA stalled at 39.54 as a result.
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11:06am: Indices trendlines held for now, price dropped away from them. TNA responds by dropping back into consolidation to the 7EMA. No new highs yet. Can the Q's and SPY hold a higher low? That would be some encouragement... perhaps move into a coiling pattern from the current lower lows and lower highs.
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11:09am: price pop on the indices to above their 7 EMA's leaving long lower wicks. Great sign. TNA responds with slightly higher price but hasn't 'taken off' yet. TNA volume rush as it challenges hod. New hod in TNA but indices still struggling to break trendline resistance.
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11:12am: Q's and SPY struggling as sellers continue to get out and not enough buyers to take over... trendlines still holding. TNA holding resistance at high- 39.60's. The good thing is there hasn't been a big volume spike in any of them to indicate a major reversal...
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11:18am: Price made a big run and now the big volume spikes are coming in. I exited half my TNA for a $124 loss. Exited my TDAmeritrade long in TNA at $39.82; a trade that I hadn't made notes of here on the blog. Gain there of $180.
11:21am: Exited the remaining 1000 shares of TNA after big volume spike in the 11:15 candle. Loss of $81 on that. Price pulled back from there but may run higher after the market digests this move. Yesterday was such a huge move down that there is a lot of built up energy to the upside once the selling clears. TNA holding 39.81 support.
Total loss of $205 on this trade, offset by a $180 gain in the TDA retirement account. Net loss of $25 on this fiasco.
cont'd
Selling pressure on the SPY causing it to hang in consolidation. TNA not moving as a result. Have to clear the frightened sellers out of the way. TNA at 39.50... looks like it wants to really take off if the market lets it.
SPY still struggling to get out of consolidation, now drooping at 10:13am... TNA stuck and selling down a little. EMA's of both stocks are still pointed up.
I'd really like to see a higher high in TNA!
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SPY just made a quick dip down to the 17 EMA and popped back up to the 7 EMA while TNA didn't move. That is a bullish short term signal for TNA: it is showing relative strength to the market at this moment.
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SPY and QQQ just dove down in 10:15 candle, but TNA didn't crash in concert with it. TNA maintaining its relative strength. I think because many of the panicked 2:45pm longs from yesterday have cleared in TNA and those in SPY and QQQ have not? Not sure...
My gut has now entertained the idea that the markets want to drop to pick up the stranded shorts from yesterday's close... that would not be a good development for me.
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For pattern traders, it appears that the markets and TNA are making a reverse head/shoulders pattern. 12:30 to 2:30pm yesterday as the left shoulder, the close pricing is the head, and now the right shoulder is forming through consolidation.
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10:29: Still a lot of selling in SPY, but I like the look of the TNA chart. It looks right now like it wants to go up from here... still above the 7 EMA but can' break free.
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10:32am: SPY trying to run up but selling came in at 156.40 and drove it down. It wants to pop but so many people got caught long before the final dip into yesterday's close. They're holding the market down with their exits. TNA holding... not moving more than a few pennies at a time.
SPY still struggling to get out of consolidation, now drooping at 10:13am... TNA stuck and selling down a little. EMA's of both stocks are still pointed up.
I'd really like to see a higher high in TNA!
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SPY just made a quick dip down to the 17 EMA and popped back up to the 7 EMA while TNA didn't move. That is a bullish short term signal for TNA: it is showing relative strength to the market at this moment.
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SPY and QQQ just dove down in 10:15 candle, but TNA didn't crash in concert with it. TNA maintaining its relative strength. I think because many of the panicked 2:45pm longs from yesterday have cleared in TNA and those in SPY and QQQ have not? Not sure...
My gut has now entertained the idea that the markets want to drop to pick up the stranded shorts from yesterday's close... that would not be a good development for me.
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For pattern traders, it appears that the markets and TNA are making a reverse head/shoulders pattern. 12:30 to 2:30pm yesterday as the left shoulder, the close pricing is the head, and now the right shoulder is forming through consolidation.
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10:29: Still a lot of selling in SPY, but I like the look of the TNA chart. It looks right now like it wants to go up from here... still above the 7 EMA but can' break free.
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10:32am: SPY trying to run up but selling came in at 156.40 and drove it down. It wants to pop but so many people got caught long before the final dip into yesterday's close. They're holding the market down with their exits. TNA holding... not moving more than a few pennies at a time.
S & P in charge?
At times, TNA is relatively strong or weak compared to how SPY moves. Right now, TNA seems to be in lockstep with the market. The SPY will be a clue as to how TNA moves.
SPY moving up and TNA side by side; $39.30
I expect as SPY gets up to 156.70, the wave of traders who got long the market at 2:45 pm yesterday will begin selling, further dampening any move up. We'll see how TNA responds. TNA has already risen to that corresponding resistance area at the open and experienced the selling at that level.
SPY moving up and TNA side by side; $39.30
I expect as SPY gets up to 156.70, the wave of traders who got long the market at 2:45 pm yesterday will begin selling, further dampening any move up. We'll see how TNA responds. TNA has already risen to that corresponding resistance area at the open and experienced the selling at that level.
April 16 (Loss $184)
S & P Futures spent all night recovering from yesterday's major drop. Lots of speculation that one or two major financial players got slapped with margin calls and had to liquidate positions in equities and gold to meet the requirement. Grey swan event? Further, a number of good earnings releases this morning has boosted the markets.
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TNA is still down from my entry price of $40.05 but at least at the open it appears that price is close to recovery. Not sure now as TNA is dropping perhaps to fill the gap. As soon as price opened and climbed to the $39.75 area, all those traders who got long at 2:45 yesterday and during the consolidation area beforehand, are selling as their trades get close to or meet their breakeven. My play is that once that selling pressure has abated, price will continue to climb. As price climbs above the $39.75 area, there will be continued selling pressure until the sleepless traders have flattened their positions and can breathe again. Then price will rise until the next wave of freaked-out traders who didn't stop out come in to sell... and on and on. This is the market at work.
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At least that's my opinion. I could very easily be wrong. Right now price is holding $39.20 and not showing signs of rising.
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TNA is still down from my entry price of $40.05 but at least at the open it appears that price is close to recovery. Not sure now as TNA is dropping perhaps to fill the gap. As soon as price opened and climbed to the $39.75 area, all those traders who got long at 2:45 yesterday and during the consolidation area beforehand, are selling as their trades get close to or meet their breakeven. My play is that once that selling pressure has abated, price will continue to climb. As price climbs above the $39.75 area, there will be continued selling pressure until the sleepless traders have flattened their positions and can breathe again. Then price will rise until the next wave of freaked-out traders who didn't stop out come in to sell... and on and on. This is the market at work.
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At least that's my opinion. I could very easily be wrong. Right now price is holding $39.20 and not showing signs of rising.
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