"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Long Again TNA

Long again in TNA 250 shares at $40 at 11:42am,  Exited when it appeared to stall at $40.09.
Gain $21.  Now price is climbing... still hard to trust my instincts... price is at $41.16 now and holding.  This thing might just make a run to $40.40 where a great deal of volume from yesterday is concentrated.  I think there might be some selling there... all that volume meant that there were buyers who may be looking to exit.
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BTW, I was one of those traders who was looking to sell his big overnight position as soon as it got near break-even.  I too k my relatively small loss a bit earlier, and looked to regroup with smaller size.  had I held, I'd have a very nice gain right now.  THAT is the market at work!  Fear and relief motivating activity.  Anyone who says this isn't a mentally driven exercise is absolutely wrong.  I can personally attest to it.

Price in TNA still climbing, $40.33 but now pulling back slightly.  This is going higher... I can feel it.  But I will wait for a potential reverse area, if one presents itself.  Of course, that is what started my trouble yesterday... fading trend.
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12:13pm:  Stepped away from the computer as TNA continued to pull back slowly.  Taking a practice trade long here to see if TNA will climb another 30 cents or so to 40.40 - 40.50 area.  Indices are not showing much sign of continued energy so I'm not putting real money to work for this idea yet, if at all.
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I still have to finish my taxes, due today for Maine and Massachussets because of yesterday's Patriot's Day holiday.   I will likely have lunch then focus on meeting my IRS obligation and glance over to the screens for the most glaring opportunities.

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12:37pm:   Lunch at the desk.  SPY just tested its HOD yet TNA said 'meh' and stayed middle of consolidation; relative weakness to the indices.  Says to me that TNA is going to pull back.  If the Indices pull back, TNA will likely accelerate to the downside.  If SPY makes an up-move, TNA will likely lag that move based on what traders are doing with it right now.
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12:41pm:   TNA has pulled down to the 17 ema while SPY remains at the 7ema mid-consolidation area.   Isn't it "interesting" that TNA's current support is the exact price where I had gone long yesterday?  That's the market at work... areas of purchase and sale tend to be the same across the market in a particular stock.  Why?  Because people are basically the same...  Thats why markets have patterns that repeat over the years and decades.  People respond to fear and greed, etc.  And the patterns repeat because so many people respond to the emotional aspects of trading... that's also why the reports say that up to 90% of people fail at trading.  The 10% who win have mastered their human impulses to act out of emotion.  That's the simple explanation, in my relatively inexperienced opinion.  Of course, other things are at work... big players manipulating the markets, etc.  But I believe those manipulations are designed to trigger trades by instilling fear and greed in others in the markets.  Basically, they do it to prod the weaker positions to expose themselves and react.  The bigger the player forcing the markets in one way or another, the bigger the player from whom they can force a liquidation.  The market is a construct designed to separate the foolish, arrogant, careless, cocky, fearful, character-weak players from their money.  See?  All the normal human emotions are the leverage by which a market participant loses to others who are forcing them into a position where they have to make decisions about whether or not to sell or cover.
It just so happens that this jousting produces the most important mechanism on which a capitalist economy rests.
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12:57pm:  TNA pushing up to its hod as SPY is running well above its HOD to 157.21 S/R line.  TNA still relatively weak to the Q's and SPY, though it is in a playable move.  I am not engaged right now and just watching.  My 'practice trade' from earlier is working nicely though :-)   It isn't paying me anything but informs me about my chart reading skills.
SPY is up substantially from yesterday's close.  Even with the huge drop yesterday, I'd say odds favor the end of today's climb in SPY... or very near the end.  It's at 157.19 and holding.  The only caveat:  There hasn't been the BIG RUSH of volume that often accompanies a primary intraday reversal.  Let's see what happens...
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1:16pm:  TNA just ran up a little but didn't make a new high, rather it held a trendline that started at the 12:55pm candle (HOD).   I still think this MIGHT be a top for the remainder of the day (excepting an eod popup).   Looks right now like TNA won't challenge the $40.40 to $40.50 area that I had targeted as a resistance line; only got to $40.34.
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1:19pm:  TNA showing some life as SPY and Q's do the 'To and Fro' with their respective resistance areas.  Maybe TNA will hit my target?  There still hasn't been the big volume flush that accompanies many ends of trend.
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