9:34 am, Exit 1000 shares of TNA held overnight at $46.08, Gain $137.82
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9:44 Short 500 TNA at $46.26
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10:47 Holding. The SPY is straight up- unfreaking believable. But TNA is trading in a range on high overall volume through the first 45 minutes of trading. This sure seems like an asymmetric-odds short here. Either that or TNA is going to go up like a rocket at a moment's notice.
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10:57 This sure looks and feels like a top in the markets. My goodness, how does this thing keep going up like this?!
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11:11 Shorted 500 shares TNA at 46.59; full 1000 share position short at average price of $46.42
Also went long 500 TZA in our TDA retirement account, at $33.65; perhaps longer term for that one.
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12:08 I say it again. Unbelievable. Historical chart shows TNA straight up since April 18, except for one day. A quick look back and it appears that this is the most direct upward climb since October 2011 (complete quick-glance estimation).
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1:10 Well, I had a chance to get out even at the 12:30 candle but I was sure this would break. Apparently in this irrational, Fed inflated market, two red candles and 25 cents is considered a break down. There is no rationality to this market; buy the dips, buy the highs, buy it all. Let's go! Everyone on the same side of the boat!
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1:20 Hitting new highs!? And this after dojis on both the SPY and the TNA 15 minute charts! The 15 min doji has always been a reliable reversal indicator. A doji on the TNA 5 minute chart which is often a sign to keep your eyes open at 1:00pm.
If anyone says the market isn't manipulated, they are a pure unadulterated liar, in my opinion. having said that, and for all my complaining, it is my responsibility to trade to win: trade the market that is on my screen and not the one that seems rational. However, when all the signals that have worked for me and for others for years somehow prove useless, one knows that something is amiss.
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2:06 Apparently, it now takes a double-doji on the TNA 15 minute chart to move the stock down. I was up by $120 on my trade but chose to hold. I'm certainly hoping, in this market environment, that I didn't do the wrong thing. Time will tell. My trade is back to a gain now, though only by a little.
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2:09 Got the drop I was looking for and took 750 shares (3/4) of my position off at $46.23 for a gain of $136.83. I'm holding the last 250 shares and will liquidate them if price returns to my break even of 46.42 per share.
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2:32 Exited my final 250 shares at $46.12 with a gain of $73.78. Perhaps too soon... price still dropping.
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Definitely too soon, had another 50+ cents per share available to me.
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3:27 After the big pullback (sarcasm), SPY & QQQ have gone on to new record highs! This market is crazy. TNA not as ebullient though. Isn't it INTERESTING that TNA has topped out at the average entry price I held from earlier today! This is how it all works, as I have said before. Note also that it was the support level at 12:30 when I had a chance to get out even but didn't; now acting as resistance.
This is not magic. I have known for a long time and preach that the market moves based on the bad/reckless buying and selling habits of the 90% (?) who lose at this 'game.' On that trade in TNA earlier, I added to a losing trade but my sense was that the market was aching for a reversal, based on my reading of the charts. AND THAT AVERAGE PRICE WAS THE EVENTUAL S/R LEVEL FOR THE PRIMARY TRENDS OF THE REST OF THE DAY; hit at 12:30, 2:20, and 3:25pm.
Could it be any clearer that those who do not stop out, and especially those who average their trades for better prices are the grist for the market's mill? I have seen this every day for years, though not fully understood it until the last 6-8 months!
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3:41 My gut and every fiber of my being are telling me that this is a short term top in the markets. I expect some kind of 'big news headline' now that will allow the major players to send the markets down in the next few days; something that the markets would normally shrug off while rising to new highs will now be cause for a drop, I'd guess.
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4:02 Absolutely shocking: TNA rocketed up into the close and found its high of the day (HOD). Unreal. Unreal.
