First trade of the day, short 500 shares of TNA $42.68 at 10:09 am. Exit all 10:22am at 42.51.
$78 gain.
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Second trade of the day: short 250 shares TNA $43.32 at 11:12am.
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Were I not already short and holding, I would be shorting TNA now at 43.60. It has climbed from 43.10 without much supporting volume on the SPY or the QQQ.
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1:04 pm and TNA is consolidating around a 43.50 pivot area (channel between 43.40 & 43.60). Unfortunately, my short price is below that but I am holding for now. SPY has not touched the 17 EMA all day, so odds are it will dip and TNA will follow.
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1:24pm and SPY has essentially touched the 17ema and TNA has held its ground. Relative strength does not bode well in the short term for TNA to drop in concert with SPY. Now, looking for pops that appear to be fake-outs rather than upward pushes.
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1:33 pm: rush of volume and push upward in TNA during the 1:25pm candle with continuation in the current 1:30 candle. However, price is dropping with more urgency than I've seen since before noon. Wondering if this push upward was the fake I was looking for and also thinking that it was designed to trip stops of all the folks short at 43.60 so there would be liquidity for the big-boys who want to short.
Just speculation on my part, but it certainly feels like that. Let's see what happens from here...
price is hanging at 43.57 in TNA while SPY and QQQ's rest atop the 17 ema.
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1:43 pm: Bigger picture analysis and the reason I didn't stop out. Except for yesterday at EOD, SPY has gone vertical since Friday morning. As that move gets 'longer in the tooth,' a pullback becomes more and more likely. I'd rather be short at 43.60 than at my current 43.32, but I like this price. I'm only in for 250 shares- given that, I'm prepared to hold this one, possibly overnight.
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2:18pm: SPY is consolidating but not breaking down as TNA creeps higher. Lots of strength here. I'm now thinking there will be a push higher into the eod, based on this sustained energy.
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2:31pm: QQQ's have broken the uptrend and SPY is showing some weakness. TNA remains above its 17ema even still. Its relative strength is holding. Traders waiting for a rebound up in the market indices and they'll push TNA even higher.
Officially, SPY has dropped to the level it was at when I shorted TNA. But TNA is holding strong. TNA is looking to push much higher, making all the shorts scream and throw in the towel. Then it'll drop.
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3:19pm: TNA stubbornly staying up while SPY and QQQ dip from their highs of the day. SPY now below the level it was at when I shorted TNA. TNA maintaining its day-long streak of successively higher lows.
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3:49pm: TNA involved in a six continuous green candle climb; large volume but small price moves. Now the seventh candle in a row is green. This could be the blow-off top that precipitates a playable drop in TNA. I'm not adding to my negative trade... no way in this environment. But I am staying with my hunch that after four days of vertical leap, the S & P will drop tomorrow. Perhaps not... :-). This market is freakish these days.
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Close: After a doji at 3:55pm, TNA dropped in the final 5 minute candle but still maintained a full day of successively higher lows; a pattern that began yesterday at 3:55pm. Today's final candle had the broadest range since 11:05pm. This chart today has all the signs of an impending drop... sort of an 'overhanging branch' pattern. Once again, I write that SPY has been vertical for four straight days. And it could absolutely continue, it's just that my sense is that the odds don't favor it.
I remain short 250 shares of TNA at $43.32
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