Here are yesterdays trades. I had a couple hours to sit in with the markets.
The first was HES and a what a bad entry it was. In fact, it couldn't have been much worse. When I shorted within a penny of the reversal to the upside, I know that I was the one "left holding the bag" when the real traders were getting out. Why did I do it? Because after Tuesdays trading, I decided that I would try to follow momentum and play in the direction of the trend to change things up a bit. To get myself on the correct side of a trade from the outset. Well, I bought the worst price of the pullback, and within three cents of the worst price for the rest of the day (the 11:20 candle dropped three cents lower thn my entry). This was clearly a suckers play by the market makers to get the stupid money to chase. Fortunately, I am paper-trading. The lesson: don't throw out what I've learned and just jump in. Wait for the familiar entry points which have proven higher rates of success.And, get out with a stop loss. I sat on this and tried to figure out why I took the trade instead of cutting it loose.
Second loss was TNA, and I decided to learn from the first trade by using a stop. I saw the 10:25 red candle that was a "near-doji" and thought it represented a good likelihood of reversal. But, I hesitated and didn't get in soon enough. I shorted too low a price and the normal intra-candle oscillation bumped up the price, pushing me to stop out. Then, the price dropped after I was shaken out, proving my instinct was right. Good idea, bad execution. I like that I didn't hesitate on the stop, though. And, I could have given my idea another try in the 10:35 candle. I didn't maintain my patience and I didn't trust my instincts to be right once it didn't suceed the first time.
In FAS, I reverted to my old "habit." First, I stuck with my plan to go with momo but as in my first trade of the day, I got burned at the low of a move going the wrong way on a reversal. Instead of getting out, though, I held and watched. Big mistake. Should have exited and reversed because I was on the short side of a nice move up. At 11:50 and 11:55, I found my reversal point and hit it with two positions short to add to my other position. My trade idea proved correct, FAS dropped, and I rescued my earlier bad trade idea. As it has been for the past 13 months, I have given myself a "mulligan," a "do-over" for you non-golfers. I think the greatest allure of this risky strategy is that it works a lot of the time if you can correctly time the additional entries. But, the risk is big, big. Definitely not the safe way to trade if doing it with real money.
Today, April 1st, I am spending most of the day with my construction project so I might sit in on the markets at lunch for a short time. Unlikely I'll do much more than that.
