Got short at 42.87 250 shares TNA only 4 mins after the open. My sense was that the market would break yesterday afternoon and when it didn't, I'd try it at the open. It was a bad spot to try it as well as a bad fill, so I had to sit through some volatility. When it dropped quickly, I took my little gain of $12.77 and waited for a better price to short. It really didn't come- market was going lower and that was that. I shorted again, 250 shares at 42.84 at 9:35. Covered at 9:52, 250 shares at 42.63. Gain $50.28. It went about 10 cents lower then reversed. Sellers back in charge now and it's headed for yesterday's opening consolidation spot (before it took off).
10:06 A lot of volatility and consolidation here in the 42.55 area.
10:40 It's been so long since I've seen movement that I'm re-acclimating myself to it.
11:33 Short 250 shares TNA at 43.26
12:11 I'm still holding with SPY having hit what I think is a firm resistance area at 11:50 am, 159.55. QQQ did the same at 11:50 for its resistance level.
My price is below the current consolidation area by 4 or 5 cents so I am a bit concerned about that. Not to mention that TNA is holding support at its 7 ema; 17 ema is still pointing up as well.
12:16 TNA is down and holding my entry price as support. Not always a good sign in my experience... let's see what comes next. Ok, just broke my price level but held the 17 ema. We need to crack that with some energy before I can call this trade a success.
12:19 17 ema held, mimicked by the QQQ and SPY holding their 17 ema at the same time. Looks like there is parity in the three for now.
12:28 Still short and price is still holding close to my entry price. That tells me I'm one of a large number sitting here. Consensus is not where I like to be as a trader. The 'consensus' is often fleeced. I'd rather be short at the 43.40 level, that would be where the smart money got in. I'm only in for a quarter position with 250 shares so I will wait and see what happens here.
12:34 As I suspected, my entry price held as support and price has jumped. If a trader is with large numbers of other traders at a certain price, and if 90% of everyone who does this loses money, does it not follow that being where lots of other traders are is a losing proposition? Now, if I were to wait for a large pop then add to my short, wouldn't also many others like me do the same? And wouldn't then the experienced, smart money know how much further to push price to get us to 'throw in the towel?' Then reverse price and go where we had first thought price would go?
Smart money knows where traders are resting and holding, sweating and hoping for movement that favors them. Reading "Trade The Trader" by Quint Tatro taught me that. The more I do this, the more I begin to understand that there is only ONE WAY to trade that will protect you always from the smart money: setting a stop, honoring it, and either reversing direction or waiting for a better price to go the same way you just were trying to go before stopping out. The secret is to not get chopped up with stop-outs in consolidation.
Even more basic is the ability to psychologically accept the stop loss. This is the achilles heel of human beings. We are not programmed to take the loss... reading "Trading In The Zone" by Mark Douglas taught me that. This is one of my last lines to cross. I still struggle with the Letting Go required to succeed at this. Even as my chart reading skills improve, I will never truly be a person prepared for a trading career, a trader immune from blowing up my account until I can master the mental aspects of trading. And my self-awareness of this weakness is a primary reason why I continue to trade in small share lots, along with more experience with momentum analysis and mastery. Of course, trading small share lots will restrict my financial success.
1:03 SPY is poised right at the doorstep to record highs... will it break upward or retreat?
1:19 SPY gearing up for possible run to new highs; tightly consolidating while also holding the 7 ema as support. It will have to break strong resistance at 159.63 however.
One never truly knows what the market will do, but my gut is telling me it will break upward... there was too much volume the first hour today to not be big traders entering on the dip for a push toward new all-time highs. Just my opinion...
1:25 Doji at 159.62 on SPY. Price in TNA dipping to the 17 ema and holding for now. 7 ema holding for the QQQ and SPY. This feels like a breakout.
1:28 QQQ and SPY looking like a retreat below the moving average, but buyers stepped in briefly. TNA dropping in price, now at 43.44
1:38 QQQ sticking close but just below the 7 ema. SPY held the 17 ema and is now up under the 7 ema. TNA established a doji at the 7 ema and just now put in another candle with very close open/close price. Are the big traders prepping for a run at history?
1:42 TNA just cracked and came down to 43.39 then jumped when buyers (black boxes?) stepped in and sent it back up.
1:50 SPY reaching HOD and holding... TNA not as enthusiastic and is holding the 43.45 area. SPY all time top print is 159.71 and sits at 159.65 now.
1:54 TNA shows flattened 17 ema and a continuing downward slope of 7 ema; price some 20 cents off the HOD. SPY up to 159.68 before retracing only slightly. QQQ holding the middle area of the consolidation between 70.66 and 70.72.
2:02 Indices shrink from new highs, TNA following suit. QQQ and SPY are at the 17 ema and threatening a breakdown through there. Looking for 159.40 area for SPY if this continues.
2:05 TNA broke down to my price level of 43.26 then jumped up like it was scalded. Remember what I wrote about consensus in an earlier post today? Everyone was there with me, which is why the trade didn't work, by the way. And as soon as price hit that exact spot, everyone covered with a deep sigh of relief, sending price up with all the buying! Now, once that rush of buyers is gone, price should drop again on its way to its eventual support.
2:09 Price of TNA back down to my level but holding... still some buyers there. However, SPY has sunk below my targeted 159.40 and is picking up support at 159.33. If it holds, TNA might actually stay at my level or go up. So far, that appears to be the case.
2:19 SPY and TNA trying to drop but finding buyers; SPY at 159.35 and 43.35
2:20 TNA just printed a doji on the 5 min chart. QQQ also.
2:27 TNA rising still after using my entry price as support. Evaluation: the 2:05 candle was the sixth candle that tried and failed to break support at 43.26 after I got short there. 11:35, 12:15,12:20, 12:25, 2:00, and 2:05. That is a clue as to the strength of this level. It also goes to show how aggressive and perhaps foolish it was on my part to keep my trade when it hit these levels during the 12:15 and 2:00 timeframes. There's no difference between the foolish notion of going short at these areas when price is reaching there after a downtrend (12:15, 2:00) and HOLDING my trade thinking it would break down through that area giving me a positive trade. Now, if TNA does break down below, it will be a strategy that pays, which is what I'm thinking it will do before EOD. But, is it wise as an intra-day trader? I'm thinking that over.
2:39 TNA dipped on very low volume then in the next candle hit 43.20 support below my entry price giving me a small gain but I did not cover like the masses did... those who sent it soaring up on a volume spike in the 2:35 candle. I'm being aggressive by holding, a luxury I feel I have because of my small share count, in hopes that this whole thing will come down to the mid or lower price levels of today. So far, we have lower highs but not lower lows since around 1:00pm. Considering the volume as price hit 43.26 and just below it, the 2:35pm candle may have been my last chance today to get out of this trade without a loss. It all depends on EOD.
2:51 Price has maintained its lower highs for now. Could be that the big volume spike and price hike at 2:35 was more people covering at the 43.20 level rather than natural buyers coming in with hopes of new highs? Not sure just yet about that idea. A quick dip to 43.30 at 2:53 was bought aggressively and price is now back up to the 7 ema. It seems there might be buyers all through the 43.25 to 43.35 channel.
3:16 Sure looked like TNA was going to break down at 3:00, but buyers came in and defended 43.26 once again, for the ninth time since I shorted at 11:33am. in my favor, it appears that TNA is continuing to hold the trendline of lower highs, currently testing that line now with increasing volume.
3:28 TNA moves above the trend line then sells down below it. Channeling since 2:00pm between 43.26 and 43.45 and is testing that higher limit now. SPY just put in a doji at 3:25 on the 5 min chart; 3rd one in the last 4 candles. If it is going down, it will happen soon. QQQ held below the 17 ema.
An evaluation of the 15 minute TNA chart shows lots of long wicks below the 43.35 level. Just goes to show how hard the area is being defended.
The large relative volume in the 42.70 area from yesterday morning and the larger volume in the same area as price dipped there around 10:00 am this morning shows that there is strength in TNA here. "Buy the dips" is what is going on. This rally is unbelievable, freakish :-).
3:51 SPY right at the all time high. QQQ isn't. TNA is not following either, not yet anyway, though volume coming in.
4:01 Holding. Price rocketed into the close, with a lot of volatility in the final candle. Open down tomorrow?
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Monday, April 29, 2013
April 29 (Gain $33.36)
11:21 I've been sitting here since the open, unimpressed with movement thus far. Market ran up some 9:30 into 10:00 but has done little since. I shorted 250 shares TNA at 42.95 and had a small unrealized gain of about $26 but held for a longer breakdown. It came back up and is hugging the $42.95 area so I covered for breakeven (loss $4.85). Still it is trading in a very tight channel using my earlier entry as a mid-point. Just waiting now, watching.
11:41 The "Miracle Market" of small caps (from which TNA is derived) is still flying high! Russell 2000's 'most shorted' names have raced up 7.3% in the last 5 days as compared to 2.4% for the Russell index itself (also quite impressive). This is why my reversal trading has been unfruitful of late. It's a wonder I've made any money at all over the past couple weeks. Check out these three charts from a post at Zero Hedge:
"The epic triple-beta dash-for-trash continues to rage and tear the faces off every short who dare use reasonable valuation (macro- and micro-) perspectives to make investment decisions. When will it end?" - Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge
11:57 TNA is still trading in a tight, ten cent channel. Basically dead in the water, trading back and forth over the 7 ema much as it was Friday around 2:00pm. It is still trading above the 17 ema and putting in higher lows so it is showing mild bullishness. This is the same for SPY.
12:04 Movement up in TNA... a whole 19 cents on nice volume. Yeah! (sarcasm)
12:54 Approaching an hour of tight channel after the above mentioned tiny boost up. What a joke.
12:59 Short 250 shares TNA at 43.04. If SPY breaks below the 17 ema, this should produce a gain.
1:05 SPY and QQQ both held their 17 ema and most of the unrealized gain I had is gone. Basically at breakeven now; slightly green.
1:35 TNA held 42.95 for 6 candles in a row, with SPY supporting the same level with 3 dojis out of 5 candles! Un-freaking believable. I'm still on the plus side of the trade but so close that it is essentially breakeven. All I can think is that the big boys want to drive the markets to new highs today and that pendulums really do swing in one direction.
1:44 Well, my trade is negative now as SPY has popped up to test its earlier high.
1:53 SPY only 14 cents from an all-time high. My trade negative still.
2:03 No lower lows in TNA yet today.
2:32 Still maintaining the higher lows via the 2:15 candle, all of this on crap volume.
2:47 Consolidating around the median of 43.10.
3:02 Every low defended with tooth and claw... SPY, QQQ and TNA
3:03 Finally broke some, but buyers are fighting... SPY will have to break support at the 159.35 level before I am convinced it is a retreat of any significance. And THAT level will be seriously defended given those dojis that are there.
3:07 SPY hit the 159.35 and is trying to go through. TNA also dropping. QQQ at 70.22 support and holding firm, bouncing off it.
3:12 TNA held 42.85, support from 10:30 & 11:15; moving up now.
3:29 Had a $50 unrealized gain, looking for it to really breakdown. Nope, I'm back to break even.
3:49 Exited half, 250 shares TNA at breakeven (gain $1.58).
3:58 All out, exited 250 shares at 42.86, five cents off the lowest point since before 10:00am. Gain of $36.62
=================================
The market is all up and no down, so mean reversion trading yields little gains. TNA basically traded in a 30 cent channel after 10:00am. And that is very hard to trade.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
11:41 The "Miracle Market" of small caps (from which TNA is derived) is still flying high! Russell 2000's 'most shorted' names have raced up 7.3% in the last 5 days as compared to 2.4% for the Russell index itself (also quite impressive). This is why my reversal trading has been unfruitful of late. It's a wonder I've made any money at all over the past couple weeks. Check out these three charts from a post at Zero Hedge:
11:57 TNA is still trading in a tight, ten cent channel. Basically dead in the water, trading back and forth over the 7 ema much as it was Friday around 2:00pm. It is still trading above the 17 ema and putting in higher lows so it is showing mild bullishness. This is the same for SPY.
12:04 Movement up in TNA... a whole 19 cents on nice volume. Yeah! (sarcasm)
12:54 Approaching an hour of tight channel after the above mentioned tiny boost up. What a joke.
12:59 Short 250 shares TNA at 43.04. If SPY breaks below the 17 ema, this should produce a gain.
1:05 SPY and QQQ both held their 17 ema and most of the unrealized gain I had is gone. Basically at breakeven now; slightly green.
1:35 TNA held 42.95 for 6 candles in a row, with SPY supporting the same level with 3 dojis out of 5 candles! Un-freaking believable. I'm still on the plus side of the trade but so close that it is essentially breakeven. All I can think is that the big boys want to drive the markets to new highs today and that pendulums really do swing in one direction.
1:44 Well, my trade is negative now as SPY has popped up to test its earlier high.
1:53 SPY only 14 cents from an all-time high. My trade negative still.
2:03 No lower lows in TNA yet today.
2:32 Still maintaining the higher lows via the 2:15 candle, all of this on crap volume.
2:47 Consolidating around the median of 43.10.
3:02 Every low defended with tooth and claw... SPY, QQQ and TNA
3:03 Finally broke some, but buyers are fighting... SPY will have to break support at the 159.35 level before I am convinced it is a retreat of any significance. And THAT level will be seriously defended given those dojis that are there.
3:07 SPY hit the 159.35 and is trying to go through. TNA also dropping. QQQ at 70.22 support and holding firm, bouncing off it.
3:12 TNA held 42.85, support from 10:30 & 11:15; moving up now.
3:29 Had a $50 unrealized gain, looking for it to really breakdown. Nope, I'm back to break even.
3:49 Exited half, 250 shares TNA at breakeven (gain $1.58).
3:58 All out, exited 250 shares at 42.86, five cents off the lowest point since before 10:00am. Gain of $36.62
=================================
The market is all up and no down, so mean reversion trading yields little gains. TNA basically traded in a 30 cent channel after 10:00am. And that is very hard to trade.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, April 26, 2013
WEEKLY GAIN $408.77
Two days of no exits as I managed a multi day swing trade in TNA and TZA. This came about as I chose to not stop out and rather hold for a market reversal. One which did not materialize to any significant degree, despite the fact that the two trades netted a gain today.
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Improvements:
1. Decide whether I want to day trade or swing trade. I am too new at this to be mixing swing and day trades. I really need to focus and specialize... branching out comes after experience.
2. Set stops and honor them.
3. Trust my skills and trust the common and reliable signals of direction change.
4. Start keeping a trade log. My thoughts this week have been on whether I am getting in on losing trades in an area where if I simply stopped them out and reversed, I could realize net gains. This is a hallmark of a capable day trader: skill competency that one is not entering such that he or she would be getting chopped up by successive entries/stop outs trying to reverse and trade the other way in a consolidation area.
* This is a critical one for me to discern. Over the weekend, I will put together a log to track my entry spots in relation to the trend that follows.
April 26 ( Gain $ 102.49)
Gap down and dropped into the 42.00 area, where at 9:41am I covered all 1000 shares of TNA held from yesterday at $42.11. Gain $321.79. My sense was that a reversal was taking place so I got out. Just as well, considering the reversal was real and price then leaped to cover the open gap.
I am still holding my 250 shares of TZA. Markets are down from the gap fill but are showing some strength, sure feels like they don't really want to break. SPY refuses to dip below yesterday's open to fill the gap up that occurred at the start of yesterday's session. As I surmised yesterday, the markets haven't officially rolled over until the buyers are cleared out from yesterday's open. Markets are making that drop now at 10:12 am
10:16 am Exit 250 shares TZA at 37.85; loss $217.35 Yesterday's open gap essentially closed on this market dip, cutting my losses to step back and evaluate. TZA reversing downward from here, at least in the short term.
10:21 Market now dropping again so I may have exited TZA early.
10:22 Market (SPY) bouncing up now off support at 158. Keeps trying to break down through but buyers fighting back. This is a significant area for the S & P. Will it crack and go down today?
10:26 Short term consolidation here in TZA, but it hasn't broken below the 7 ema yet so I wouldn't say it is transitioned to weakness. SPY and QQQ still below their respective 7 ema's as well.
10:32 I have to say that I expected the markets to break down more than this, considering the run they made and the macro data here and abroad. Dow is still up today and SPY still down only .28% .
10:36 SPY holding its 158 support for the 3rd time today out of the last four candles. Buyers are defending that level and as such, SPY consolidates here. 7 EMA still represents resistance however.
10:41 SPY up and now testing resistance but recoiling strongly off it. Looks like sellers are strong there and we are down in the consolidation area that is using 158.10 as a central level.
10:44 TNA trading in what is essentially a 30 cent channel. That's fun to trade, he said facetiously; chop chop chop.
11:02 TNA defending 42 support with intensity, as if traders' lives were at stake. If and when it finally breaks, it should go down with authority. In this market environment though, who knows how far down it will go. Seems like there are buyers galore. Maybe Ben Bernanke is now also the chairman of the PPT?! :-)
11:07 Lower highs on TNA while support holds today; wedge forming nicely and very clearly seen on the 15 min chart.
11:13 So badly I want to get short for a ride down to $41. on TNA. But I am a bit gun-shy of getting short after the way $42. is being defended.
11:17 TNA rising and some volume building. Perhaps a Range Day in the making instead of trend day down? Much like the first three hours on Wednesday, there is a fight going on; close to but not the exact price level. More a battle for direction.
11:29 Good place for scalpers to make some cash off mean reversion here as TNA goes back and forth over the 7 EMA.
Weakness now (11:31) in TNA, might push downward...
11:32 A place to get fooled in a short, expecting breakdown. I've been faked out of my shoes with reversals SO MANY TIMES, including yesterday in TZA. The time to get short for this breakdown was back near the top of the 11:15 or 11:25 candles.
11:37 There's the crack and break!
11:40 Support holding on SPY, which has stopped TNA's drop for now.
11:42 SPY still clinging to 158 support. TNA showing a bit of green, though not convincingly.
12:14 Watching this unfold with no money at work. I'm looking to buy TNA near the 41.40 level, if it gets there.
12:23 Nice doji on the TNA 15 min chart, a reliable sign of a reversal. However, I think long here is premature... I'm fighting the urge to buy. I'm still feeling the 41.40 is an important area, based on the fact that it was close to the resistance level for the wedge 2 days ago (10-12:30 timeframe). It seems like that is a 'neighborhood' that will be defended.
An important question one would ask is why am I not short at this moment, feeling as I do about the current momentum?
1:22 Ahhh, the smell of missed opportunity. TNA is now up to 42 and that shows the problem with trading off specific levels instead of following momentum. I was so focused on the 41.40 that i did not use common reversal signals to go long. I watched, believing that it would break down more... especially around the 12:35 and 12:40 area. I did actually get long at 41.72, but didn't like the fact that I was going against my original idea and got out flat (loss $1.95). Then it promptly went up, reinforcing that my instinct to go long was correct even if it contradicted my preconceived idea. I was in and ready for what would have been a 30 cent trade; up to $75 for 250 shares. The answer: setting a stop and not getting out without it being hit.
To answer my question from just above, this is why I was not short looking for the drop to 41.40... uncertainty but fixated on an idea. It is quite possible that we could see 41.40 later on today, but that was not my original thought and not what was motivating me around noon time. I was inflexible and not attentive to momentum.
1:30 Earlier very strong support, TNA just used 42 as resistance, dropping back from it though not with any vigor.
1:42 Dropped back 12 cents or so from the 42 but holding support at the 7 ema. SPY showing strength off its 7 ema; causing TNA to test the 42 once again. There was so much activity there earlier that I would guess it would take extra effort to move away from this range... expecting some consolidation here.
1:47 Nice push up after busting through 42. Resistance at 42.20 area, with volume spike.
1:58 TNA seems frozen in place at 42.02, more or less.
2:05 42 level holds again.
2:10 Three near dojis in a row on TNA. $42 is a powerful level. I believe this is the Big Rollover Decision here. This is the battlefield.
2:13 I have been wondering for two days why TNA and the markets generally are this high. My bias is down. But I could easily make a case for TNA reaching the 42.50 area today. That's why I'm watching and not trading it!
2:17 Momo is nonexistent. Just guessing.
2:27 Chop and churn.
2:51 More of the same. Going nowhere slowly. Not straying from 42.
Access to a live streaming HOD/LOD scanner would be awesome on days like today. I have so many avenues of advancement yet to travel.
3:04 Volume spike and nice green candle. What is up with this? Something to short scalp back into the channel? Break out?
Over an hour, all but one candle has crossed over the 7 ema.
3:32 Pressing up toward 42.25 now. Looks like buyers were in charge for most of the day. And, it looks like the big noon time doji on the TNA 15 min chart was the reversal indicator that it often is. I was so attached to a price level below it that I didn't trust the common signals. And i gave up gains as a result. Another 10 cents and TNA will be flat for the day. That is the most surprising thing to me. This market is maintaining its strong showing of late. it doesn't seem real that it is, but it is.
4:01 Market closed. I didn't make any moves after my quick buy/sell at 1:09 pm.
I am still holding my 250 shares of TZA. Markets are down from the gap fill but are showing some strength, sure feels like they don't really want to break. SPY refuses to dip below yesterday's open to fill the gap up that occurred at the start of yesterday's session. As I surmised yesterday, the markets haven't officially rolled over until the buyers are cleared out from yesterday's open. Markets are making that drop now at 10:12 am
10:16 am Exit 250 shares TZA at 37.85; loss $217.35 Yesterday's open gap essentially closed on this market dip, cutting my losses to step back and evaluate. TZA reversing downward from here, at least in the short term.
10:21 Market now dropping again so I may have exited TZA early.
10:22 Market (SPY) bouncing up now off support at 158. Keeps trying to break down through but buyers fighting back. This is a significant area for the S & P. Will it crack and go down today?
10:26 Short term consolidation here in TZA, but it hasn't broken below the 7 ema yet so I wouldn't say it is transitioned to weakness. SPY and QQQ still below their respective 7 ema's as well.
10:32 I have to say that I expected the markets to break down more than this, considering the run they made and the macro data here and abroad. Dow is still up today and SPY still down only .28% .
10:36 SPY holding its 158 support for the 3rd time today out of the last four candles. Buyers are defending that level and as such, SPY consolidates here. 7 EMA still represents resistance however.
10:41 SPY up and now testing resistance but recoiling strongly off it. Looks like sellers are strong there and we are down in the consolidation area that is using 158.10 as a central level.
10:44 TNA trading in what is essentially a 30 cent channel. That's fun to trade, he said facetiously; chop chop chop.
11:02 TNA defending 42 support with intensity, as if traders' lives were at stake. If and when it finally breaks, it should go down with authority. In this market environment though, who knows how far down it will go. Seems like there are buyers galore. Maybe Ben Bernanke is now also the chairman of the PPT?! :-)
11:07 Lower highs on TNA while support holds today; wedge forming nicely and very clearly seen on the 15 min chart.
11:13 So badly I want to get short for a ride down to $41. on TNA. But I am a bit gun-shy of getting short after the way $42. is being defended.
11:17 TNA rising and some volume building. Perhaps a Range Day in the making instead of trend day down? Much like the first three hours on Wednesday, there is a fight going on; close to but not the exact price level. More a battle for direction.
11:29 Good place for scalpers to make some cash off mean reversion here as TNA goes back and forth over the 7 EMA.
Weakness now (11:31) in TNA, might push downward...
11:32 A place to get fooled in a short, expecting breakdown. I've been faked out of my shoes with reversals SO MANY TIMES, including yesterday in TZA. The time to get short for this breakdown was back near the top of the 11:15 or 11:25 candles.
11:37 There's the crack and break!
11:40 Support holding on SPY, which has stopped TNA's drop for now.
11:42 SPY still clinging to 158 support. TNA showing a bit of green, though not convincingly.
12:14 Watching this unfold with no money at work. I'm looking to buy TNA near the 41.40 level, if it gets there.
12:23 Nice doji on the TNA 15 min chart, a reliable sign of a reversal. However, I think long here is premature... I'm fighting the urge to buy. I'm still feeling the 41.40 is an important area, based on the fact that it was close to the resistance level for the wedge 2 days ago (10-12:30 timeframe). It seems like that is a 'neighborhood' that will be defended.
An important question one would ask is why am I not short at this moment, feeling as I do about the current momentum?
1:22 Ahhh, the smell of missed opportunity. TNA is now up to 42 and that shows the problem with trading off specific levels instead of following momentum. I was so focused on the 41.40 that i did not use common reversal signals to go long. I watched, believing that it would break down more... especially around the 12:35 and 12:40 area. I did actually get long at 41.72, but didn't like the fact that I was going against my original idea and got out flat (loss $1.95). Then it promptly went up, reinforcing that my instinct to go long was correct even if it contradicted my preconceived idea. I was in and ready for what would have been a 30 cent trade; up to $75 for 250 shares. The answer: setting a stop and not getting out without it being hit.
To answer my question from just above, this is why I was not short looking for the drop to 41.40... uncertainty but fixated on an idea. It is quite possible that we could see 41.40 later on today, but that was not my original thought and not what was motivating me around noon time. I was inflexible and not attentive to momentum.
1:30 Earlier very strong support, TNA just used 42 as resistance, dropping back from it though not with any vigor.
1:42 Dropped back 12 cents or so from the 42 but holding support at the 7 ema. SPY showing strength off its 7 ema; causing TNA to test the 42 once again. There was so much activity there earlier that I would guess it would take extra effort to move away from this range... expecting some consolidation here.
1:47 Nice push up after busting through 42. Resistance at 42.20 area, with volume spike.
1:58 TNA seems frozen in place at 42.02, more or less.
2:05 42 level holds again.
2:10 Three near dojis in a row on TNA. $42 is a powerful level. I believe this is the Big Rollover Decision here. This is the battlefield.
2:13 I have been wondering for two days why TNA and the markets generally are this high. My bias is down. But I could easily make a case for TNA reaching the 42.50 area today. That's why I'm watching and not trading it!
2:17 Momo is nonexistent. Just guessing.
2:27 Chop and churn.
2:51 More of the same. Going nowhere slowly. Not straying from 42.
Access to a live streaming HOD/LOD scanner would be awesome on days like today. I have so many avenues of advancement yet to travel.
3:04 Volume spike and nice green candle. What is up with this? Something to short scalp back into the channel? Break out?
Over an hour, all but one candle has crossed over the 7 ema.
3:32 Pressing up toward 42.25 now. Looks like buyers were in charge for most of the day. And, it looks like the big noon time doji on the TNA 15 min chart was the reversal indicator that it often is. I was so attached to a price level below it that I didn't trust the common signals. And i gave up gains as a result. Another 10 cents and TNA will be flat for the day. That is the most surprising thing to me. This market is maintaining its strong showing of late. it doesn't seem real that it is, but it is.
4:01 Market closed. I didn't make any moves after my quick buy/sell at 1:09 pm.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
April 25 ($0 )
9:41 Markets up up and away in the early-going. Pendulums swing in one direction.
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9:51 SPY below opening level, Small caps racing ahead; TNA pushing a new hod.
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10:02 Short 750 additional shares TNA at $43.03, bringing my total shares short to 1000; a full posisition. Average price is short at $42.44; TNA could reach 43.40 before reversal. My thoughts from last night were that TNA could pop in the morning but that once a certain level was reached, it would come back. I believe we are at or very near that level, that's why I added size.
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10:43 SPY and QQQ soaring still; vertical leap! TNA not following and remains in consolidation... in the short term, that is a sign that this is nearly played out. Again, I think that TNA could get to 43.40 but not much beyond. Doji at 43.10 suggests that this is an important area and might consolidate here at length.
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10:54 SPY still rising, has not dropped enough to even touch its 7 EMA in over an hour, let alone drop below it. A lot of buying pressure in the overall markets. Market goes up minimally on bad news and soars on good news. mind boggling.
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11:04 SPY still has not slowed its climb enough to touch the 7 ema. Impressive run given how far it has come over the prior days. TNA touched 43.30 in the 11:00 candle.
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11:18 SPY closed below its 7 ema for the first time today but quickly rose back above it, fighting and appearing that it will close above that moving average now. TNA holding in consolidation.
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11:26 The S & P shows no sign of retreat, only rest. So, TNA is consolidating as well and not dropping back. PPT really earning their wages yesterday and today.
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11:36 I really like my price here at 42.44, not to say that price won't climb though. TNA still putting in higher lows so far despite repeatedly bumping into and falling from resistance. And both moving averages are going higher.
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11:44 TNA in an hour and a half consolidation. Looking at the 15 min chart now is as odd as it was yesterday for the final hour and 45 mins at yesterday's close.
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11:50 Showing sign of weakness in TNA. First run of three consecutive red candles since noontime yesterday. SPY flirting with a close below the 17 ema for the first time today. QQQ already closed below 17 ema last candle.
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12:13 This is what passes for a 'breakdown' in TNA after the huge run that it has made; 30 cents? TNA back up and in consolidation channel. Noting that the green candles moving it up are on stronger volume than the ones that took it down. Not a good sign for my trade short term. The question is: Is this pop a retest before coming down?
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12:21 Checking my favorite blogs led me to this, and why perhaps the market is "out of its mind" and detached from what has historically guided it. Sickening, if you are a free-market type like me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
The goal: Squeeze all but the most well-funded shorts out of the market through pure manipulation and not prudent fiscally and monetarily sound policies. Pure artificial con job. Smoke and mirrors. Bullshit. S&P up almost 4% in 6 trading days with Dow Jones components reporting marginal earnings outlooks and European countries in the toilet. wtf? Time to just buy the major indices and then go to the beach for a few years.
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1:18 It has gone without saying because it has been obvious, at least to me. Why am I short and not long during this powerful run up? Good question? Failure to set a stop.
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1:31 TNA has reached my targeted 43.40 area. Problem is, it is not bouncing away from it, it's hanging just under it.
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2:29 SPY pulling back slightly but I won't be convinced until it gets below 158.75 with lower intent. TNA actually making a move below the moving averages, but I won't be convinced until it has dipped below 42.90 on big volume. Moving there only to rest on that level is not compelling, given the behavior of this stock over the past day and a half.
2:44 Some price volatility in TNA during this 2:40 candle. Volume rising, and a potential reversal candle formed; red with long upper wick.
2:46 Price showing red but held up at 43.13 support. Through support by a few pennies but won't break recent low point easily. Testing that low now. 9 ema on the 15 minute chart is tipped downward for the first time since Tuesday. Ok, buyer (s) not letting it drop below the recent lows, even on what is frequently a nice reversal candle. Every dip is aggressively bought. When this ends, and it surely will eventually, there are a LOT of longs who will be taken by surprise.
2:51 Price has again slumped down to test the firmness of 43.15 area support. Trying to break below but buyers keep stepping in... volume light to the downside and price has broken recent lows but another significant short-term support area is at 43.03; not coincidentally where I shorted my 750 shares earlier.
2:54 SPY testing 158.80 support now. Breaking this makes a big difference in how the final hour will go. TNA has dipped below 43.03 but has held the 43.00 so far.
2:56 SPY has dropped to big support at 158.67 and bounced up... TNA not bouncing. Looks like down is the current direction. TNA encounters good support here at 42.90; corresponds witht he SPY support at 158.67. Seems to be holding this area, bouncing with volume.
2:58 TNA red again with 1:10 left in this candle. Badly wants to rise... who's in charge, buyers? Sellers?
3:00 That is a big red candle on SPY. Often indicates reversal. If not and it goes down, that is a bearish sign... all that volume and still heading down.
3:01 TNA stubborn, doesn't want to break 42.89 support. There it goes below the level...
3:04 I don't consider this a rollover until we test and break today's open. Doubtful we get that low today. I say that because we have to get through the buyers at the 42.40 area (see the near doji candle at 9:45) who like me, are aching to get out what has been a difficult day! Fear and greed, baby; fear and greed!
3:09 Looks like 42.73 support for TNA is holding, buyers coming in there and pushing price up 20 cents. New candle now and it is holding... nice amount of volume in this downturn from 2:40 to now.
3:11 TNA testing that 42.73 support again, even after what is often a reversal candle (3:05). This might be it for the downturn as SPY has bumped into support at 158.30 area... lots volume in SPY. QQQ has tested open price and held it, getting a nice bounce from that 69.62 spot.
3:14 SPY and QQQ are in a bounce, showing long tails and some green in this candle. TNA holding though, not convinced yet that the fall is done.
3:15 TNA long tails in two successive red candles, both touching 42.73 support. I really started to get the feeling that it might break... the next intra-day support would have been my breakeven area at 42.43. Ordinarily, I'd try to be long off the support at 42.73.
3:18 TNA aggressively testing the support it just bounced off in two prior candles; just broke through. My guess is it will push down hard but reverse once it gets near my price. Some who got long at the support just above is stopping out and those sales are moving it lower now.
3:20 Bounce off 42.55 but not big bounce. Still showing red even after all this volume. SPY hanging in the 58.45 area.
3:22 My gut tells me SPY wants down to 158.25 before end of day. If so, I should hit my average price.
3:24 TNA still showing red, though SPY just hit 158.27 support without taking TNA down with it; a bad sign for my trade going green today.
3:27 I need serious weakness in the S & P during the final half-hour to take TNA down. Like SPY getting to that 158.20 or test of LOD. Some weakness in TNA now, testing the recent low. 42.55 has plenty of buyers, this level holding for now.
3:30 First green candle after nine red ones in TNA, though nearly a doji so sellers are still battling. My gut tells me we have seen the low of the day. Depends on how much energy TNA can muster as it reaches the 7 ema and tries to get back above it.
3:36 TNA holding just below resistance of 42.73, testing it as it rises now.
3:40 Not excited to carry a full position overnight, might take off half for a loss. Ordinarily I'd think it would break down more tomorrow, but in light of recent days' movement, I have no idea what to expect... ha!
3:44 42.73 holding as support now, for the entire 3:40 candle as it has now changed to 3:45.
3:46 SPY gave us a doji on the 3:40 candle (5 min chart) so this is a level of at least short-term significance, if not longer.
3:50 TNA testing and cracking down below support with some volume behind it. Maybe we'll hit my price? Unlikely, but never know.
4:00 I'm holding all. Taking the risk. I had a chance to take off half my TNA with a $65 loss during the last candle but it is not enough of a breakdown yet, based on the big run the markets have had. This is a tough time of the year to hold overnight, given the market surprises that come with earnings announcements, but my sense is it will open gap-down tomorrow. I always suspect the charts lead the news...
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Wow, rough day for the Options traders with the CBOE an absolute mess all day. My goodness...
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9:51 SPY below opening level, Small caps racing ahead; TNA pushing a new hod.
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10:02 Short 750 additional shares TNA at $43.03, bringing my total shares short to 1000; a full posisition. Average price is short at $42.44; TNA could reach 43.40 before reversal. My thoughts from last night were that TNA could pop in the morning but that once a certain level was reached, it would come back. I believe we are at or very near that level, that's why I added size.
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10:43 SPY and QQQ soaring still; vertical leap! TNA not following and remains in consolidation... in the short term, that is a sign that this is nearly played out. Again, I think that TNA could get to 43.40 but not much beyond. Doji at 43.10 suggests that this is an important area and might consolidate here at length.
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10:54 SPY still rising, has not dropped enough to even touch its 7 EMA in over an hour, let alone drop below it. A lot of buying pressure in the overall markets. Market goes up minimally on bad news and soars on good news. mind boggling.
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11:04 SPY still has not slowed its climb enough to touch the 7 ema. Impressive run given how far it has come over the prior days. TNA touched 43.30 in the 11:00 candle.
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11:18 SPY closed below its 7 ema for the first time today but quickly rose back above it, fighting and appearing that it will close above that moving average now. TNA holding in consolidation.
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11:26 The S & P shows no sign of retreat, only rest. So, TNA is consolidating as well and not dropping back. PPT really earning their wages yesterday and today.
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11:36 I really like my price here at 42.44, not to say that price won't climb though. TNA still putting in higher lows so far despite repeatedly bumping into and falling from resistance. And both moving averages are going higher.
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11:44 TNA in an hour and a half consolidation. Looking at the 15 min chart now is as odd as it was yesterday for the final hour and 45 mins at yesterday's close.
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11:50 Showing sign of weakness in TNA. First run of three consecutive red candles since noontime yesterday. SPY flirting with a close below the 17 ema for the first time today. QQQ already closed below 17 ema last candle.
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12:13 This is what passes for a 'breakdown' in TNA after the huge run that it has made; 30 cents? TNA back up and in consolidation channel. Noting that the green candles moving it up are on stronger volume than the ones that took it down. Not a good sign for my trade short term. The question is: Is this pop a retest before coming down?
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12:21 Checking my favorite blogs led me to this, and why perhaps the market is "out of its mind" and detached from what has historically guided it. Sickening, if you are a free-market type like me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
The goal: Squeeze all but the most well-funded shorts out of the market through pure manipulation and not prudent fiscally and monetarily sound policies. Pure artificial con job. Smoke and mirrors. Bullshit. S&P up almost 4% in 6 trading days with Dow Jones components reporting marginal earnings outlooks and European countries in the toilet. wtf? Time to just buy the major indices and then go to the beach for a few years.
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1:18 It has gone without saying because it has been obvious, at least to me. Why am I short and not long during this powerful run up? Good question? Failure to set a stop.
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1:31 TNA has reached my targeted 43.40 area. Problem is, it is not bouncing away from it, it's hanging just under it.
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2:29 SPY pulling back slightly but I won't be convinced until it gets below 158.75 with lower intent. TNA actually making a move below the moving averages, but I won't be convinced until it has dipped below 42.90 on big volume. Moving there only to rest on that level is not compelling, given the behavior of this stock over the past day and a half.
2:44 Some price volatility in TNA during this 2:40 candle. Volume rising, and a potential reversal candle formed; red with long upper wick.
2:46 Price showing red but held up at 43.13 support. Through support by a few pennies but won't break recent low point easily. Testing that low now. 9 ema on the 15 minute chart is tipped downward for the first time since Tuesday. Ok, buyer (s) not letting it drop below the recent lows, even on what is frequently a nice reversal candle. Every dip is aggressively bought. When this ends, and it surely will eventually, there are a LOT of longs who will be taken by surprise.
2:51 Price has again slumped down to test the firmness of 43.15 area support. Trying to break below but buyers keep stepping in... volume light to the downside and price has broken recent lows but another significant short-term support area is at 43.03; not coincidentally where I shorted my 750 shares earlier.
2:54 SPY testing 158.80 support now. Breaking this makes a big difference in how the final hour will go. TNA has dipped below 43.03 but has held the 43.00 so far.
2:56 SPY has dropped to big support at 158.67 and bounced up... TNA not bouncing. Looks like down is the current direction. TNA encounters good support here at 42.90; corresponds witht he SPY support at 158.67. Seems to be holding this area, bouncing with volume.
2:58 TNA red again with 1:10 left in this candle. Badly wants to rise... who's in charge, buyers? Sellers?
3:00 That is a big red candle on SPY. Often indicates reversal. If not and it goes down, that is a bearish sign... all that volume and still heading down.
3:01 TNA stubborn, doesn't want to break 42.89 support. There it goes below the level...
3:04 I don't consider this a rollover until we test and break today's open. Doubtful we get that low today. I say that because we have to get through the buyers at the 42.40 area (see the near doji candle at 9:45) who like me, are aching to get out what has been a difficult day! Fear and greed, baby; fear and greed!
3:09 Looks like 42.73 support for TNA is holding, buyers coming in there and pushing price up 20 cents. New candle now and it is holding... nice amount of volume in this downturn from 2:40 to now.
3:11 TNA testing that 42.73 support again, even after what is often a reversal candle (3:05). This might be it for the downturn as SPY has bumped into support at 158.30 area... lots volume in SPY. QQQ has tested open price and held it, getting a nice bounce from that 69.62 spot.
3:14 SPY and QQQ are in a bounce, showing long tails and some green in this candle. TNA holding though, not convinced yet that the fall is done.
3:15 TNA long tails in two successive red candles, both touching 42.73 support. I really started to get the feeling that it might break... the next intra-day support would have been my breakeven area at 42.43. Ordinarily, I'd try to be long off the support at 42.73.
3:18 TNA aggressively testing the support it just bounced off in two prior candles; just broke through. My guess is it will push down hard but reverse once it gets near my price. Some who got long at the support just above is stopping out and those sales are moving it lower now.
3:20 Bounce off 42.55 but not big bounce. Still showing red even after all this volume. SPY hanging in the 58.45 area.
3:22 My gut tells me SPY wants down to 158.25 before end of day. If so, I should hit my average price.
3:24 TNA still showing red, though SPY just hit 158.27 support without taking TNA down with it; a bad sign for my trade going green today.
3:27 I need serious weakness in the S & P during the final half-hour to take TNA down. Like SPY getting to that 158.20 or test of LOD. Some weakness in TNA now, testing the recent low. 42.55 has plenty of buyers, this level holding for now.
3:30 First green candle after nine red ones in TNA, though nearly a doji so sellers are still battling. My gut tells me we have seen the low of the day. Depends on how much energy TNA can muster as it reaches the 7 ema and tries to get back above it.
3:36 TNA holding just below resistance of 42.73, testing it as it rises now.
3:40 Not excited to carry a full position overnight, might take off half for a loss. Ordinarily I'd think it would break down more tomorrow, but in light of recent days' movement, I have no idea what to expect... ha!
3:44 42.73 holding as support now, for the entire 3:40 candle as it has now changed to 3:45.
3:46 SPY gave us a doji on the 3:40 candle (5 min chart) so this is a level of at least short-term significance, if not longer.
3:50 TNA testing and cracking down below support with some volume behind it. Maybe we'll hit my price? Unlikely, but never know.
4:00 I'm holding all. Taking the risk. I had a chance to take off half my TNA with a $65 loss during the last candle but it is not enough of a breakdown yet, based on the big run the markets have had. This is a tough time of the year to hold overnight, given the market surprises that come with earnings announcements, but my sense is it will open gap-down tomorrow. I always suspect the charts lead the news...
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Wow, rough day for the Options traders with the CBOE an absolute mess all day. My goodness...
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
April 24 ( $0 )
What the **** is holding this market up? Tons of bad economic news, here and abroad... and it keeps going up.
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12:35 The way the small caps keep rising is the biggest shock to me... based on the chart and my multi-year study of TNA, they should be pulled back by now. And the major indices, Dow and S&P? My goodness! Is this the "Late Money" from the average Jane and Joe on the street, who follows nothing but the 'markets at all-time highs"headlines, getting money to work in her/his retirement account? Who is buying?
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1:51 More double-doji's on the 5-min TNA chart. This is weird.
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2:05 Looks like TNA might try for the 42.10 area, if it can successfully break through 41.70 area resistance.
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2:13 Volume coming into TNA here at 41.75 resistance. Up? Down? Ordinarily I'd vote down from here, but these markets are outside my understanding.
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2:46 This market just sucks. every time price breaks down where it normally would, there's an instant buy executed. On the other hand, a market is a market and traders must adapt.
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3:14 QQQ and SPY dropping and TNA staying up. I don't get it.
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3:25 SPY 3:20 candle is red with big volume. TNA moves about 5 cents down. There must be some very big players wanting the small caps higher. When SPY moves up by a few cents, TNA jumps out of its skin higher.
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3:58 SPY has dropped over 65% from its high today and TNA is still within 25 cents of its hod. ???
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Market closed now... This is definitely a learning experience for me over the past couple days. Classes of stocks can decouple, that's for sure. Small caps are not trading with the major indices, they're roaring and seem overdue for a pullback. But the market will decide when that occurs...
I remain short TNA at $40.65, long TZA at $38.71. Based on looking at the chart, I would guess this has to break back down for a retest of the $40.50 area of TNA and as I was thinking yesterday, at least fill yesterday's opening gap at $39.60.
No exits today.
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ADDENDUM:
What the heck happened to TNA closing volume? There was none!
TNA volume today was 6,420,000 shares, the lowest since the slightly higher total of April 11th; a day with a doji-top and short-term reversal.
Today was the lowest volume day since the 5,064,400 December 24th, 2012, just before the huge January to mid-March ramp up.
Today was the second lowest volume day since December 29, 2009 had 4,915,000 shares traded!!!
Today was the fourth lowest volume trading day in TNA since December, 26, 2008 in the depths of the market crash.
TNA close to a $42.20 s/r area. My gut is telling me it might ramp a bit tomorrow (?) then go down... unless it just goes down without the ceremony of moving up. Always prepared for being wrong, though.
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At 3:40 pm today, I moved mutual fund stock market assets to money market (this is a non-trade account). It is the first time I've touched that money since the deep crash of 2008-2009.
Something is up with these markets and my uncertainty bothers me. They could bust out and make a run up from here, who knows. But this is a time and chart area where I don't want to be guessing.
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12:35 The way the small caps keep rising is the biggest shock to me... based on the chart and my multi-year study of TNA, they should be pulled back by now. And the major indices, Dow and S&P? My goodness! Is this the "Late Money" from the average Jane and Joe on the street, who follows nothing but the 'markets at all-time highs"headlines, getting money to work in her/his retirement account? Who is buying?
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1:51 More double-doji's on the 5-min TNA chart. This is weird.
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2:05 Looks like TNA might try for the 42.10 area, if it can successfully break through 41.70 area resistance.
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2:13 Volume coming into TNA here at 41.75 resistance. Up? Down? Ordinarily I'd vote down from here, but these markets are outside my understanding.
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2:46 This market just sucks. every time price breaks down where it normally would, there's an instant buy executed. On the other hand, a market is a market and traders must adapt.
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3:14 QQQ and SPY dropping and TNA staying up. I don't get it.
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3:25 SPY 3:20 candle is red with big volume. TNA moves about 5 cents down. There must be some very big players wanting the small caps higher. When SPY moves up by a few cents, TNA jumps out of its skin higher.
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3:58 SPY has dropped over 65% from its high today and TNA is still within 25 cents of its hod. ???
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Market closed now... This is definitely a learning experience for me over the past couple days. Classes of stocks can decouple, that's for sure. Small caps are not trading with the major indices, they're roaring and seem overdue for a pullback. But the market will decide when that occurs...
I remain short TNA at $40.65, long TZA at $38.71. Based on looking at the chart, I would guess this has to break back down for a retest of the $40.50 area of TNA and as I was thinking yesterday, at least fill yesterday's opening gap at $39.60.
No exits today.
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ADDENDUM:
What the heck happened to TNA closing volume? There was none!
TNA volume today was 6,420,000 shares, the lowest since the slightly higher total of April 11th; a day with a doji-top and short-term reversal.
Today was the lowest volume day since the 5,064,400 December 24th, 2012, just before the huge January to mid-March ramp up.
Today was the second lowest volume day since December 29, 2009 had 4,915,000 shares traded!!!
Today was the fourth lowest volume trading day in TNA since December, 26, 2008 in the depths of the market crash.
TNA close to a $42.20 s/r area. My gut is telling me it might ramp a bit tomorrow (?) then go down... unless it just goes down without the ceremony of moving up. Always prepared for being wrong, though.
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At 3:40 pm today, I moved mutual fund stock market assets to money market (this is a non-trade account). It is the first time I've touched that money since the deep crash of 2008-2009.
Something is up with these markets and my uncertainty bothers me. They could bust out and make a run up from here, who knows. But this is a time and chart area where I don't want to be guessing.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013
April 23 (Gain $ 181.40)
This market is ridiculous. I have no freaking idea what is making it go up today, yesterday for that matter. It is crawling up, tightly hugging the 7 EMA on SPY, QQQ, and TNA. What or who the hell is pushing this thing up? I see three doji's on the 15 minute TNA chart which is frequently a reversal sign, but up it goes. Doji on the SPY 15 min and no breakdown. Gap-up but no fill.
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I am short 250 shares TNA at $40.69, and waiting...
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12:30pm Still in tight consolidation. I haven't seen TNA do this, to my best recollection, in the 3-4 years I've been watching it. A 3x mover derived of the small caps which are the most volatile of the indices. This is just weird.
The SPY is at what I consider a notable resistance area, and TNA hasn't closed below the 17 EMA since before noon yesterday (except the last two candles of yesterday's session, and then didn't go far below. There must be a lot of juice under this market to make it continue up without any significant pullbacks.
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12:37 Noticed a doji in the 12:30 QQQ 5-minute candle... another common turn signal.
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12:46 I am shocked... QQQ actually dropped to the 17 EMA after the doji. SPY still up and TNA still up. 'd like to know who has the bid under this market. This seems like such an unbelievably ripe spot to short and with size... yet my unfamiliarity with what is going on here keeps me from doing it. Everything tells me this thing is coming down like crazy... yet it grinds up.
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12:49 TNA just closed below 17 EMA for the first candle today and only the third candle in about 8.5 hours of trading. Dropping a bit more now.
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12:54 Lame excuse for a pullback. TNA still holding in the price channel begun around 11:00am today. Just closed the second candle below the 17 EMA, but holding tight to it. This is not a drop one would expect.
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1:14 Well, the dam just broke and we got a pile driver drop. I got out with a Gain of $75.52 as it was moving down. Just as strong a reversal back up, which took me by surprise... I was not in long. Back near where the price broke down, I shorted 750 shares of TNA at $40.78 and now waiting for price to head back down. Still hanging up above the 17 EMA though... this is SO strange! A lot of shorts must have been buying to cover to send it back up like that... although some natural buying could be behind it. It's that I don't know why!
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1:22 Price simply hanging there now at 40.99! As if the 1:05 - 1:10pm timeframe never happened! Huh? What is up with that?
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1:47 Price went down and I scaled out 500 of my 750 shares as price went down. Gains $22.69, $40.18. Kept my remaining 250 shares waiting for the big breakdown, but price is rebounding and headed up... left $56 on the table by not taking my gains on the final portion of shares. Looking for it to come down again. Still positive at 1:50pm... we'll see what happens. The 1:40 pm turn up for TNA happened on very little volume, so it seems odd that it wouldn't drop more. But, maybe all the volume exited in the big flush...?
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2:02 Wow, just learned about why the market tumbled a while ago! A threat at the White House from a hacked Twitter account? What the hell is wrong with people? Wish I had sold all my shares considering that news... it was a one-time headline and not the market going down on it's own. That's why the market seems to be holding up now, using my entry price of 40.78 as resistance.
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2:18 Exit my final 250 shares of TNA at 40.51. Gain $67.72
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4:01 An early small loss of $24.70 figures into today's mix.
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I am short 250 shares TNA at $40.69, and waiting...
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12:30pm Still in tight consolidation. I haven't seen TNA do this, to my best recollection, in the 3-4 years I've been watching it. A 3x mover derived of the small caps which are the most volatile of the indices. This is just weird.
The SPY is at what I consider a notable resistance area, and TNA hasn't closed below the 17 EMA since before noon yesterday (except the last two candles of yesterday's session, and then didn't go far below. There must be a lot of juice under this market to make it continue up without any significant pullbacks.
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12:37 Noticed a doji in the 12:30 QQQ 5-minute candle... another common turn signal.
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12:46 I am shocked... QQQ actually dropped to the 17 EMA after the doji. SPY still up and TNA still up. 'd like to know who has the bid under this market. This seems like such an unbelievably ripe spot to short and with size... yet my unfamiliarity with what is going on here keeps me from doing it. Everything tells me this thing is coming down like crazy... yet it grinds up.
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12:49 TNA just closed below 17 EMA for the first candle today and only the third candle in about 8.5 hours of trading. Dropping a bit more now.
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12:54 Lame excuse for a pullback. TNA still holding in the price channel begun around 11:00am today. Just closed the second candle below the 17 EMA, but holding tight to it. This is not a drop one would expect.
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1:14 Well, the dam just broke and we got a pile driver drop. I got out with a Gain of $75.52 as it was moving down. Just as strong a reversal back up, which took me by surprise... I was not in long. Back near where the price broke down, I shorted 750 shares of TNA at $40.78 and now waiting for price to head back down. Still hanging up above the 17 EMA though... this is SO strange! A lot of shorts must have been buying to cover to send it back up like that... although some natural buying could be behind it. It's that I don't know why!
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1:22 Price simply hanging there now at 40.99! As if the 1:05 - 1:10pm timeframe never happened! Huh? What is up with that?
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1:47 Price went down and I scaled out 500 of my 750 shares as price went down. Gains $22.69, $40.18. Kept my remaining 250 shares waiting for the big breakdown, but price is rebounding and headed up... left $56 on the table by not taking my gains on the final portion of shares. Looking for it to come down again. Still positive at 1:50pm... we'll see what happens. The 1:40 pm turn up for TNA happened on very little volume, so it seems odd that it wouldn't drop more. But, maybe all the volume exited in the big flush...?
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2:02 Wow, just learned about why the market tumbled a while ago! A threat at the White House from a hacked Twitter account? What the hell is wrong with people? Wish I had sold all my shares considering that news... it was a one-time headline and not the market going down on it's own. That's why the market seems to be holding up now, using my entry price of 40.78 as resistance.
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2:18 Exit my final 250 shares of TNA at 40.51. Gain $67.72
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4:01 An early small loss of $24.70 figures into today's mix.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Monday April 22 ( Gain $124.88 )
At the computer at the open with Mrs BlueCollar sitting beside me.
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I drew a line on the chart saying, "That's where price is going, short-term." And, it did. I was not short as this move down took place, choosing instead to let the Hotshot Traders trade the opening 15 minutes. Too bad, I had 1.30 per share available to me had I taken the trade. I did however, go long as the price reversed. Long 250 shares TNA at $37.73 at 9:51; two cents off the short-term bottom. Exited all shares just a minute later, safely but too quickly at $37.89. Gain $37.71.
Price now diving again and back to the low of the day (LOD).
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10:55am At 10:11am, I went long again, 250 shares of TNA at $37.44. It dropped a little to $37.23 then moved up, leaving a reversal candle with huge corresponding volume. Good entry. Mrs BCT and I watched price climb to $37.76 in the 10:20 candle... I wanted to get out and take the quick cash there but my wife said, "Hold, hold, you always get out too early." Price began to pullback and I defied her wishes and exited with a $47.66 Gain. Price pulled back some more but never threatened my original entry price. Then it climbed and has kept climbing. Women are so often correct. I'd have a potential gain of $200 instead of less than $50 had I listened to her; price is at $38.20 now and consolidating, 80 cents above my entry. So much opportunity for me but left on the table.
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Right now, my goal isn't to be a perfect, Hotshot Trader. My goal is to be profitable and to pay our monthly bills as I continue to learn. And I'm only three weeks into full time live trading with my official trading account. Excellence will come as long as I properly manage risk.
More money can come two ways: More shares but maintain my 'safe' early exits. Or, maintain my low 'safe' number of shares (250 shares = one-quarter of a 1000 share position) but learn to hold them longer. With a full 1000 share trade, I'd now be up $340... which if annualized over 250 trading days in a year is $85,000 per year before taxes. That's in the top 10% of income earners in the United States.
As months and years go on, I hope to master both. Right now, I'm up over $85 on two successful trades and no losses. I'm miles from perfect, but I'm profitable. I'm also not satisfied with trading this way, which is why I know I'll get better, providing I manage risk well.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
________
12:09 Short 500 shares TNA at 38.83
12:23 covered 250 shares even (Gain .43 cents) I don't like how price is hanging here for almost 15 minutes. Leaving 250 shares to test for the drop I expected before this. Big volume on the indices but not TNA... suspect TNA might jump while indices consolidate.
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12:35 TNA did jump about 20 points but is holding my entry level as an S/R line... for now. I hate being stuck in consolidation. But it's better than being left behind as a stock moves against me. Lets see... TNA is showing relative strength to QQQ and that isn't encouraging. Until they break down, TNA will threaten to break out.
_________
12:39 pm There's the TNA pop. Darn it.
_________
12:44 pm Holding
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12:45 Potential reversal candle on the 5-Min SPY after hitting an s/r level.
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1:02pm Indices coming down from the reversal candle, but TNA standing firm... Hmmmm, dislike.
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1:11pm On the historical charts, TNA has lagged the SPY in relation to the bounce off SPY's 50 day moving ave the other day. Maybe it wants to make up the ground here? TNA still showing relative strength to the indices.
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1:16pm TNA showing signs of dying. My trade perhaps getting some life. Indices sitting and staying on their 17 ema's. If they crack, I will go positive. My goodness, there is some solid support at this level: 68.60 on the QQQ's, 155.70 on the SPY!
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1:33pm Big volume spike in SPY but not much price change... watching closely for what happens next. No corresponding spike on QQQ or TNA, though TNA is moving up.
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1:37 QQQ rising on dead volume. Smells like a fake popup to me, but who knows...
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1:46 QQQ volume came in big and markets jumped TNA big up candle at 1:40pm.
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1:49 SPY retreating slightly from a double top. TNA down only 10 cents on same move to this point.
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1:52 TNA pulling back from the major s/r area at $39.30. Might crack here as it is now entering the time of day where stocks often exhibit extra movement.
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2:04 More and more, I'm thinking this is a dangerous place to be short... It's just a feeling, but S & P seems to want to move north. It isn't holding to any reversal pattern I recognize.
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2:49pm I hate playing from behind. I am now short 1000 shares of TNA at 39.39.
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3:55pm Took half (500 shares) off at 3:18pm for a $12.81 Loss. Then held my remaining 500 shares. Scaled out 250 shares at $39.33 for $14.57 Gain. Then covered remaining 250 shares at $39.24 at 3:53pm for a Gain $37.32. Good thing I got out there, price has rebounded from that point and is not headed up with 1:30 left in the day.
I have no damn idea what was holding this market up. Plunge protection team at work. Tons of buying in TNA at 39.38. Just look at the chart of SPY between 2:45 and 3:30pm. I mean, what the heck?
Gain of $124.88 for the day.
------------
I drew a line on the chart saying, "That's where price is going, short-term." And, it did. I was not short as this move down took place, choosing instead to let the Hotshot Traders trade the opening 15 minutes. Too bad, I had 1.30 per share available to me had I taken the trade. I did however, go long as the price reversed. Long 250 shares TNA at $37.73 at 9:51; two cents off the short-term bottom. Exited all shares just a minute later, safely but too quickly at $37.89. Gain $37.71.
Price now diving again and back to the low of the day (LOD).
-------------
10:55am At 10:11am, I went long again, 250 shares of TNA at $37.44. It dropped a little to $37.23 then moved up, leaving a reversal candle with huge corresponding volume. Good entry. Mrs BCT and I watched price climb to $37.76 in the 10:20 candle... I wanted to get out and take the quick cash there but my wife said, "Hold, hold, you always get out too early." Price began to pullback and I defied her wishes and exited with a $47.66 Gain. Price pulled back some more but never threatened my original entry price. Then it climbed and has kept climbing. Women are so often correct. I'd have a potential gain of $200 instead of less than $50 had I listened to her; price is at $38.20 now and consolidating, 80 cents above my entry. So much opportunity for me but left on the table.
--------------
Right now, my goal isn't to be a perfect, Hotshot Trader. My goal is to be profitable and to pay our monthly bills as I continue to learn. And I'm only three weeks into full time live trading with my official trading account. Excellence will come as long as I properly manage risk.
More money can come two ways: More shares but maintain my 'safe' early exits. Or, maintain my low 'safe' number of shares (250 shares = one-quarter of a 1000 share position) but learn to hold them longer. With a full 1000 share trade, I'd now be up $340... which if annualized over 250 trading days in a year is $85,000 per year before taxes. That's in the top 10% of income earners in the United States.
As months and years go on, I hope to master both. Right now, I'm up over $85 on two successful trades and no losses. I'm miles from perfect, but I'm profitable. I'm also not satisfied with trading this way, which is why I know I'll get better, providing I manage risk well.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
________
12:09 Short 500 shares TNA at 38.83
12:23 covered 250 shares even (Gain .43 cents) I don't like how price is hanging here for almost 15 minutes. Leaving 250 shares to test for the drop I expected before this. Big volume on the indices but not TNA... suspect TNA might jump while indices consolidate.
________
12:35 TNA did jump about 20 points but is holding my entry level as an S/R line... for now. I hate being stuck in consolidation. But it's better than being left behind as a stock moves against me. Lets see... TNA is showing relative strength to QQQ and that isn't encouraging. Until they break down, TNA will threaten to break out.
_________
12:39 pm There's the TNA pop. Darn it.
_________
12:44 pm Holding
_________
12:45 Potential reversal candle on the 5-Min SPY after hitting an s/r level.
_________
1:02pm Indices coming down from the reversal candle, but TNA standing firm... Hmmmm, dislike.
_________
1:11pm On the historical charts, TNA has lagged the SPY in relation to the bounce off SPY's 50 day moving ave the other day. Maybe it wants to make up the ground here? TNA still showing relative strength to the indices.
_________
1:16pm TNA showing signs of dying. My trade perhaps getting some life. Indices sitting and staying on their 17 ema's. If they crack, I will go positive. My goodness, there is some solid support at this level: 68.60 on the QQQ's, 155.70 on the SPY!
_________
1:33pm Big volume spike in SPY but not much price change... watching closely for what happens next. No corresponding spike on QQQ or TNA, though TNA is moving up.
_________
1:37 QQQ rising on dead volume. Smells like a fake popup to me, but who knows...
_________
1:46 QQQ volume came in big and markets jumped TNA big up candle at 1:40pm.
_________
1:49 SPY retreating slightly from a double top. TNA down only 10 cents on same move to this point.
_________
1:52 TNA pulling back from the major s/r area at $39.30. Might crack here as it is now entering the time of day where stocks often exhibit extra movement.
_________
2:04 More and more, I'm thinking this is a dangerous place to be short... It's just a feeling, but S & P seems to want to move north. It isn't holding to any reversal pattern I recognize.
________
2:49pm I hate playing from behind. I am now short 1000 shares of TNA at 39.39.
________
3:55pm Took half (500 shares) off at 3:18pm for a $12.81 Loss. Then held my remaining 500 shares. Scaled out 250 shares at $39.33 for $14.57 Gain. Then covered remaining 250 shares at $39.24 at 3:53pm for a Gain $37.32. Good thing I got out there, price has rebounded from that point and is not headed up with 1:30 left in the day.
I have no damn idea what was holding this market up. Plunge protection team at work. Tons of buying in TNA at 39.38. Just look at the chart of SPY between 2:45 and 3:30pm. I mean, what the heck?
Gain of $124.88 for the day.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Weekly Gain $256.90
Too many trades this week to fit on a screen shot, so no visual record.
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The week was mostly dominated by my sloppy undisciplined trading on Monday and Tuesday, scrambling to be profitable because I chose to fade moves too soon and then didn't stop them out.
Took a loss on Tuesday and barely squeezed out a gain on Monday; a day in which I should have cleaned up.
-
Also playing into this week's trading was a commitment to consistently trade small share amounts until Friday where my final trade of the day was a 1000 share short near the day's price peak and scaling out in 250 share increments as the trend moved down.
Successful/experienced traders recognize when they have asymmetric risk advantage and increase initial size for those trades as well as adding to trades that are working. I have a great deal to learn in this department.
Friday, April 19 (Gain $203.33)
Decided not to do a play by play of Friday's trading. Five trades, five wins. Gain $203.33.
Execution was much better but far from perfect this day.
Made money on Trade 1 by shorting the first pullback, then Trades 2-5 from a short taken near the daily top at 11:30am; taking gains by scaling out as it dropped from 12:00pm to 1:10pm.
Execution was much better but far from perfect this day.
Made money on Trade 1 by shorting the first pullback, then Trades 2-5 from a short taken near the daily top at 11:30am; taking gains by scaling out as it dropped from 12:00pm to 1:10pm.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
April 18 (Gain $116.29)
I've been busy this morning with TNA and TZA, my favorite trading vehicles. Five trades and a gain thus far of $53.31. Three Gains $37.80, $45.10, $74.96. One loss of $104.50. One breakeven.
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Price dipped at the open and then rallied into the 9:45am candle. I went long on that ride up and got caught as it fell steeply into 10:00am... that was the $104.50 loss. The breakeven was a TZA trade that I used as a hedge. Gains were a long as the rally from the 10:00am bottom up to the 38.70 area, then a short at the top of the 10:55am. I am particularly disappointed in my execution on that one as I got out far too early after a perfect entry at a textbook reversal point; that move down is still in the works as I write this at 11:30am.
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Still shopping for high probability entries.
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11:55am: I had to step away from the computer for 20-25 mins and missed the downtrend that is still testing its lows. Darn...
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Yesterday I thought a recovery and move up was in the bag, so to speak. However, my prediction must wait... the S & P is struggling to stay above its 50 day moving average., just completing its 4th try at breaking down in the past two days. The most recent one 15 mins ago was a higher low so that is a bullish sign (for now). Up or down, I only try to"Rent" stocks now, I don't "Own" them in the traditional sense.
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12:45pm A lot of long lower wicks on the TNA 15 min chart... traders are buying the dips. A move up seems highly likely.
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1:42pm Family member stopped in unexpectedly and took me away from the computer for nearly an hour. Just sitting back down now to get my bearings. To this point it appears that 38.00 is TNA's center point of consolidation since late morning yesterday and around which it is coiling presently.
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1:53pm QQQ's are threatening their recent lows from April 5th. If they break, it might drag everything else down, depending on relative weakness. TNA has broken down below todays lower trend line, but hanging just below it.
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2:00pm Two o'clock time frame, a part of the day when markets often make trade-able moves. TNA sitting on a S/R line and just made doji for the 1:55 candle.
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3:16 I sat patiently and watched TNA drop and drop, measuring it to see when momo had stopped; feeling for the end of the drop. (Hotshot trader that I am not, I wasn't in it as it dropped) Then it felt right and I went long 250 shares of TNA $37.22 at 2:58. It retested my mettle in the next two candles as it came down and tested the low tick. I was in 4 cents from the bottom. And I sat on it and waited for it to rise. And rise it did, ending at $37 62. I exited a bit before that however; $37.48 at 3:15pm. Gain $62.98
Fairly well executed and I don't mind patting myself on the back because I frequently deride my performance, especially lately. I was definitely in a zone on this one start to exit. Truly, I'm not sure I've ever been that focused in the years I've been trying to learn this art. I took the first half of the eventual move up into the close, but I got nearly all of the first leg before the 3:15 - 3:20 pullback. I was mentally tired and had to visit the bathroom (TMI ?) so I disengaged for the second leg of the move up to 37.75. No matter, with yesterday and today I've recovered my loss from Monday plus $33.
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Price dipped at the open and then rallied into the 9:45am candle. I went long on that ride up and got caught as it fell steeply into 10:00am... that was the $104.50 loss. The breakeven was a TZA trade that I used as a hedge. Gains were a long as the rally from the 10:00am bottom up to the 38.70 area, then a short at the top of the 10:55am. I am particularly disappointed in my execution on that one as I got out far too early after a perfect entry at a textbook reversal point; that move down is still in the works as I write this at 11:30am.
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Still shopping for high probability entries.
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11:55am: I had to step away from the computer for 20-25 mins and missed the downtrend that is still testing its lows. Darn...
------------------
Yesterday I thought a recovery and move up was in the bag, so to speak. However, my prediction must wait... the S & P is struggling to stay above its 50 day moving average., just completing its 4th try at breaking down in the past two days. The most recent one 15 mins ago was a higher low so that is a bullish sign (for now). Up or down, I only try to"Rent" stocks now, I don't "Own" them in the traditional sense.
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12:45pm A lot of long lower wicks on the TNA 15 min chart... traders are buying the dips. A move up seems highly likely.
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1:42pm Family member stopped in unexpectedly and took me away from the computer for nearly an hour. Just sitting back down now to get my bearings. To this point it appears that 38.00 is TNA's center point of consolidation since late morning yesterday and around which it is coiling presently.
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1:53pm QQQ's are threatening their recent lows from April 5th. If they break, it might drag everything else down, depending on relative weakness. TNA has broken down below todays lower trend line, but hanging just below it.
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2:00pm Two o'clock time frame, a part of the day when markets often make trade-able moves. TNA sitting on a S/R line and just made doji for the 1:55 candle.
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3:16 I sat patiently and watched TNA drop and drop, measuring it to see when momo had stopped; feeling for the end of the drop. (Hotshot trader that I am not, I wasn't in it as it dropped) Then it felt right and I went long 250 shares of TNA $37.22 at 2:58. It retested my mettle in the next two candles as it came down and tested the low tick. I was in 4 cents from the bottom. And I sat on it and waited for it to rise. And rise it did, ending at $37 62. I exited a bit before that however; $37.48 at 3:15pm. Gain $62.98
Fairly well executed and I don't mind patting myself on the back because I frequently deride my performance, especially lately. I was definitely in a zone on this one start to exit. Truly, I'm not sure I've ever been that focused in the years I've been trying to learn this art. I took the first half of the eventual move up into the close, but I got nearly all of the first leg before the 3:15 - 3:20 pullback. I was mentally tired and had to visit the bathroom (TMI ?) so I disengaged for the second leg of the move up to 37.75. No matter, with yesterday and today I've recovered my loss from Monday plus $33.
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Wednesday, April 17, 2013
April 17 (Gain $101.49)
10:03am: Short 250 shares TNA at 39.05, covered all at 38.95. Gain $22.72. Got what I believe is the last of this particular move down. On a larger scale, I think price will sink down to test yesterday's lows $38.45 area.
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10:09 Price kept dropping for another 15 cents and is now inching up. The primary direction of the day is still down and that needs respect until one gets highly trustworthy indications to the contrary.
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10:20 Price dropping nicely albeit without me still in; now at 38.50. Trading is about trusting what you know... eventually I will. Until I do, I'll be scalping pennies off moves I believe, and actually do occur with an acceptable rate of success.
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10:22 Long at 38.50, 250 shares TNA
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11:49 Much has happened in TNA since I went long. And I held my small trade without adding anything to it, a suckers play here. TNA touched its late February bottom price and is up slightly; very high volume in the 11:15am candle. I am making a prediction here... If TNA and the markets in general don't break down substantially from here today, we have put in a bottom of this particular trend down from the April 11 market high. The charts look very favorable for a move back up from here. That's why I'm sitting on this 250 share long trade. If it goes green, I will consider adding to it. I might even be able to convince myself to keep it for a swing trade; I'm that confident of a move in the general markets back up into the consolidation area formed on SPY between $154 area and the $157 area.
Of course, if support breaks, then it is a big move down to follow in TNA because we are right at the important support of $37.
At this time, TNA is roughly 17% down from its most recent highs of $44.73.
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2:40pm: Held TNA and used its inverse, TZA, as a hedge in case TNA decided to dive below support. TNA stayed positive and I Lost $73.62 total for three different insurance trades.
Later shorted TZA to take advantage of the climbing market between 1:35pm and 1:45pm. Short 250 sh TZA at 42.23 and covered all 41.83. Gain $97.60
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TNA popped really well into the 3:15 candle so I exited at the top of that candle. Exit all TNA at 38.59, gain $20.20.
Promptly shorted on that big run-up... Shorted 250 sh TNA at 38.60 and covered all 3 mins later at $38.47 for $29.43 gain.
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3:40pm: Absolutely should have held that last TNA short; has dropped to $38.13 thus far. Left up to 34 cents on the table ($85).
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3:49pm: TNA spiked to 38.47 so I shorted it right there at $38.46 in hopes of it dropping back away from S/R to the mean. It simply hung there into the 3:50 candle, so I covered even (Gain $5.15). From there it moved up a little to 38.53 and basically stayed at S/R into the close.
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Once again, a day of acceptable reads but lackluster execution. A lot of opportunity left behind and a lot of work for a $101.49 total today. If there is anything good about these days, it is that i pay very close attention and learn a lot more than when I am performing well.
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10:09 Price kept dropping for another 15 cents and is now inching up. The primary direction of the day is still down and that needs respect until one gets highly trustworthy indications to the contrary.
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10:20 Price dropping nicely albeit without me still in; now at 38.50. Trading is about trusting what you know... eventually I will. Until I do, I'll be scalping pennies off moves I believe, and actually do occur with an acceptable rate of success.
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10:22 Long at 38.50, 250 shares TNA
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11:49 Much has happened in TNA since I went long. And I held my small trade without adding anything to it, a suckers play here. TNA touched its late February bottom price and is up slightly; very high volume in the 11:15am candle. I am making a prediction here... If TNA and the markets in general don't break down substantially from here today, we have put in a bottom of this particular trend down from the April 11 market high. The charts look very favorable for a move back up from here. That's why I'm sitting on this 250 share long trade. If it goes green, I will consider adding to it. I might even be able to convince myself to keep it for a swing trade; I'm that confident of a move in the general markets back up into the consolidation area formed on SPY between $154 area and the $157 area.
Of course, if support breaks, then it is a big move down to follow in TNA because we are right at the important support of $37.
At this time, TNA is roughly 17% down from its most recent highs of $44.73.
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2:40pm: Held TNA and used its inverse, TZA, as a hedge in case TNA decided to dive below support. TNA stayed positive and I Lost $73.62 total for three different insurance trades.
Later shorted TZA to take advantage of the climbing market between 1:35pm and 1:45pm. Short 250 sh TZA at 42.23 and covered all 41.83. Gain $97.60
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TNA popped really well into the 3:15 candle so I exited at the top of that candle. Exit all TNA at 38.59, gain $20.20.
Promptly shorted on that big run-up... Shorted 250 sh TNA at 38.60 and covered all 3 mins later at $38.47 for $29.43 gain.
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3:40pm: Absolutely should have held that last TNA short; has dropped to $38.13 thus far. Left up to 34 cents on the table ($85).
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3:49pm: TNA spiked to 38.47 so I shorted it right there at $38.46 in hopes of it dropping back away from S/R to the mean. It simply hung there into the 3:50 candle, so I covered even (Gain $5.15). From there it moved up a little to 38.53 and basically stayed at S/R into the close.
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Once again, a day of acceptable reads but lackluster execution. A lot of opportunity left behind and a lot of work for a $101.49 total today. If there is anything good about these days, it is that i pay very close attention and learn a lot more than when I am performing well.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Reverse Head & Shoulder
1:25pm: Sure seems like TNA is well on its way to a classic H & S pattern, though I am not a chart pattern expert and don't know exactly how to get the 'measured move' portion of the pattern from it. TNA just moving above it's mini trendline... some upside to go perhaps as it currently rides tightly to the 7 ema?
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1:34pm: TNA at new HOD by one cent, (40.35) but stalled there. SPY and Q's showing reversal-type 1:30pm candles with elevated volume as they continue oscillating above and below S/R. TNA still in a tight channel at 40.22. No big volume candles shown yet, however. Could be the 11:45 and 11:50am candle volumes are what passes for the end of the run? Not sure...
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1:42pm: TNA showing some volume building and going red... indices showing red and touching their 17 ema's but on virtually no volume. What dynamic at work here, I wonder? A fake move down to generate some liquidity for the ones who want to move it higher? A tired market moving down with little conviction? Around 2:00 - 2:30pm there usually is movement started in the markets, so let us see what is revealed.
I really have to get to my taxes though... so I'm now done narrating the market for my future edification. Maybe a recap at the close.
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4:12pm: TNA zoomed up in the last half-hour of today's session. The 2:00pm typical movement was to the downside, taking it to a re-test of the 39.81 support before trending nicely into the close. It hit and moved through my $40.40 to $40.50 target area. The volume surge hit at 3:35pm to lift it up out of the consolidation area resistance level of 40.27.
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1:34pm: TNA at new HOD by one cent, (40.35) but stalled there. SPY and Q's showing reversal-type 1:30pm candles with elevated volume as they continue oscillating above and below S/R. TNA still in a tight channel at 40.22. No big volume candles shown yet, however. Could be the 11:45 and 11:50am candle volumes are what passes for the end of the run? Not sure...
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1:42pm: TNA showing some volume building and going red... indices showing red and touching their 17 ema's but on virtually no volume. What dynamic at work here, I wonder? A fake move down to generate some liquidity for the ones who want to move it higher? A tired market moving down with little conviction? Around 2:00 - 2:30pm there usually is movement started in the markets, so let us see what is revealed.
I really have to get to my taxes though... so I'm now done narrating the market for my future edification. Maybe a recap at the close.
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4:12pm: TNA zoomed up in the last half-hour of today's session. The 2:00pm typical movement was to the downside, taking it to a re-test of the 39.81 support before trending nicely into the close. It hit and moved through my $40.40 to $40.50 target area. The volume surge hit at 3:35pm to lift it up out of the consolidation area resistance level of 40.27.
Long Again TNA
Long again in TNA 250 shares at $40 at 11:42am, Exited when it appeared to stall at $40.09.
Gain $21. Now price is climbing... still hard to trust my instincts... price is at $41.16 now and holding. This thing might just make a run to $40.40 where a great deal of volume from yesterday is concentrated. I think there might be some selling there... all that volume meant that there were buyers who may be looking to exit.
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BTW, I was one of those traders who was looking to sell his big overnight position as soon as it got near break-even. I too k my relatively small loss a bit earlier, and looked to regroup with smaller size. had I held, I'd have a very nice gain right now. THAT is the market at work! Fear and relief motivating activity. Anyone who says this isn't a mentally driven exercise is absolutely wrong. I can personally attest to it.
Price in TNA still climbing, $40.33 but now pulling back slightly. This is going higher... I can feel it. But I will wait for a potential reverse area, if one presents itself. Of course, that is what started my trouble yesterday... fading trend.
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12:13pm: Stepped away from the computer as TNA continued to pull back slowly. Taking a practice trade long here to see if TNA will climb another 30 cents or so to 40.40 - 40.50 area. Indices are not showing much sign of continued energy so I'm not putting real money to work for this idea yet, if at all.
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I still have to finish my taxes, due today for Maine and Massachussets because of yesterday's Patriot's Day holiday. I will likely have lunch then focus on meeting my IRS obligation and glance over to the screens for the most glaring opportunities.
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12:37pm: Lunch at the desk. SPY just tested its HOD yet TNA said 'meh' and stayed middle of consolidation; relative weakness to the indices. Says to me that TNA is going to pull back. If the Indices pull back, TNA will likely accelerate to the downside. If SPY makes an up-move, TNA will likely lag that move based on what traders are doing with it right now.
--------------
12:41pm: TNA has pulled down to the 17 ema while SPY remains at the 7ema mid-consolidation area. Isn't it "interesting" that TNA's current support is the exact price where I had gone long yesterday? That's the market at work... areas of purchase and sale tend to be the same across the market in a particular stock. Why? Because people are basically the same... Thats why markets have patterns that repeat over the years and decades. People respond to fear and greed, etc. And the patterns repeat because so many people respond to the emotional aspects of trading... that's also why the reports say that up to 90% of people fail at trading. The 10% who win have mastered their human impulses to act out of emotion. That's the simple explanation, in my relatively inexperienced opinion. Of course, other things are at work... big players manipulating the markets, etc. But I believe those manipulations are designed to trigger trades by instilling fear and greed in others in the markets. Basically, they do it to prod the weaker positions to expose themselves and react. The bigger the player forcing the markets in one way or another, the bigger the player from whom they can force a liquidation. The market is a construct designed to separate the foolish, arrogant, careless, cocky, fearful, character-weak players from their money. See? All the normal human emotions are the leverage by which a market participant loses to others who are forcing them into a position where they have to make decisions about whether or not to sell or cover.
It just so happens that this jousting produces the most important mechanism on which a capitalist economy rests.
---------------
12:57pm: TNA pushing up to its hod as SPY is running well above its HOD to 157.21 S/R line. TNA still relatively weak to the Q's and SPY, though it is in a playable move. I am not engaged right now and just watching. My 'practice trade' from earlier is working nicely though :-) It isn't paying me anything but informs me about my chart reading skills.
SPY is up substantially from yesterday's close. Even with the huge drop yesterday, I'd say odds favor the end of today's climb in SPY... or very near the end. It's at 157.19 and holding. The only caveat: There hasn't been the BIG RUSH of volume that often accompanies a primary intraday reversal. Let's see what happens...
---------------
1:16pm: TNA just ran up a little but didn't make a new high, rather it held a trendline that started at the 12:55pm candle (HOD). I still think this MIGHT be a top for the remainder of the day (excepting an eod popup). Looks right now like TNA won't challenge the $40.40 to $40.50 area that I had targeted as a resistance line; only got to $40.34.
----------------
1:19pm: TNA showing some life as SPY and Q's do the 'To and Fro' with their respective resistance areas. Maybe TNA will hit my target? There still hasn't been the big volume flush that accompanies many ends of trend.
--------------
Gain $21. Now price is climbing... still hard to trust my instincts... price is at $41.16 now and holding. This thing might just make a run to $40.40 where a great deal of volume from yesterday is concentrated. I think there might be some selling there... all that volume meant that there were buyers who may be looking to exit.
------------
BTW, I was one of those traders who was looking to sell his big overnight position as soon as it got near break-even. I too k my relatively small loss a bit earlier, and looked to regroup with smaller size. had I held, I'd have a very nice gain right now. THAT is the market at work! Fear and relief motivating activity. Anyone who says this isn't a mentally driven exercise is absolutely wrong. I can personally attest to it.
Price in TNA still climbing, $40.33 but now pulling back slightly. This is going higher... I can feel it. But I will wait for a potential reverse area, if one presents itself. Of course, that is what started my trouble yesterday... fading trend.
-------------
12:13pm: Stepped away from the computer as TNA continued to pull back slowly. Taking a practice trade long here to see if TNA will climb another 30 cents or so to 40.40 - 40.50 area. Indices are not showing much sign of continued energy so I'm not putting real money to work for this idea yet, if at all.
-------------
I still have to finish my taxes, due today for Maine and Massachussets because of yesterday's Patriot's Day holiday. I will likely have lunch then focus on meeting my IRS obligation and glance over to the screens for the most glaring opportunities.
--------------
12:37pm: Lunch at the desk. SPY just tested its HOD yet TNA said 'meh' and stayed middle of consolidation; relative weakness to the indices. Says to me that TNA is going to pull back. If the Indices pull back, TNA will likely accelerate to the downside. If SPY makes an up-move, TNA will likely lag that move based on what traders are doing with it right now.
--------------
12:41pm: TNA has pulled down to the 17 ema while SPY remains at the 7ema mid-consolidation area. Isn't it "interesting" that TNA's current support is the exact price where I had gone long yesterday? That's the market at work... areas of purchase and sale tend to be the same across the market in a particular stock. Why? Because people are basically the same... Thats why markets have patterns that repeat over the years and decades. People respond to fear and greed, etc. And the patterns repeat because so many people respond to the emotional aspects of trading... that's also why the reports say that up to 90% of people fail at trading. The 10% who win have mastered their human impulses to act out of emotion. That's the simple explanation, in my relatively inexperienced opinion. Of course, other things are at work... big players manipulating the markets, etc. But I believe those manipulations are designed to trigger trades by instilling fear and greed in others in the markets. Basically, they do it to prod the weaker positions to expose themselves and react. The bigger the player forcing the markets in one way or another, the bigger the player from whom they can force a liquidation. The market is a construct designed to separate the foolish, arrogant, careless, cocky, fearful, character-weak players from their money. See? All the normal human emotions are the leverage by which a market participant loses to others who are forcing them into a position where they have to make decisions about whether or not to sell or cover.
It just so happens that this jousting produces the most important mechanism on which a capitalist economy rests.
---------------
12:57pm: TNA pushing up to its hod as SPY is running well above its HOD to 157.21 S/R line. TNA still relatively weak to the Q's and SPY, though it is in a playable move. I am not engaged right now and just watching. My 'practice trade' from earlier is working nicely though :-) It isn't paying me anything but informs me about my chart reading skills.
SPY is up substantially from yesterday's close. Even with the huge drop yesterday, I'd say odds favor the end of today's climb in SPY... or very near the end. It's at 157.19 and holding. The only caveat: There hasn't been the BIG RUSH of volume that often accompanies a primary intraday reversal. Let's see what happens...
---------------
1:16pm: TNA just ran up a little but didn't make a new high, rather it held a trendline that started at the 12:55pm candle (HOD). I still think this MIGHT be a top for the remainder of the day (excepting an eod popup). Looks right now like TNA won't challenge the $40.40 to $40.50 area that I had targeted as a resistance line; only got to $40.34.
----------------
1:19pm: TNA showing some life as SPY and Q's do the 'To and Fro' with their respective resistance areas. Maybe TNA will hit my target? There still hasn't been the big volume flush that accompanies many ends of trend.
--------------
still cont'd
Price is holding support to my surprise.
Now Long 250 shares TNA at 39.98. SPY struggling to break above 156.70 resistance. I'm out of TNA even (26 cent gain). Price could make another run at resistance, but I'm out and watching.
----------
Ultimately, I like TNA to move up to the $40.35 area, perhaps to $41.40 if the market is feeling spirited.
Now Long 250 shares TNA at 39.98. SPY struggling to break above 156.70 resistance. I'm out of TNA even (26 cent gain). Price could make another run at resistance, but I'm out and watching.
----------
Ultimately, I like TNA to move up to the $40.35 area, perhaps to $41.40 if the market is feeling spirited.
Still consolidating
Still consolidating at 10:36am. 7 & 17 EMA still pointed north for TNA. This thing wants to rise, it just needs to be untethered from the market... but that will never happen. They tend to be closely correlated.
SPY now dropping at 10:38, retesting 156.16 support. QQQ retesting support at 68.96. TNA is dead in the water until they make up its mind.
10:40am: TNA dropping as it channels. Now below the 7 EMA and struggling to get back above it.
Minimal volume in all three Issues.
-------------
10:43am: SPY just ticked to LOD. Sure seems to me that SPY is being driven down to test the close from yesterday; lower highs and lower lows. Now QQQ has cracked the LOD. TNA is following. Volume pop may have indicated some buy-stops triggered in TNA? Volumes increasing in all three. Real drop or fake out?
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10:49am: SPY making new lows tick by tick but TNA still showing relative strength... hasn't yet made a new low since 10:00 am.
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QQQ's back toward the middle of consolidation but SPY still weak and holding below moving averages. TNA beginning to show some weakness at 10:52. Not good for now.
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10:57am: SPY making a run at 156.16 s/r and has recoiled after hitting it. TNA made a corresponding run up in sympathy. The markets have to break resistance here for anything to get going. The next hurdle will be a higher high on the 5-minute candles.
-------------
Getting some volume in all three: Q's, SPY and TNA. TNA making a run at the hod.
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11:02am: SPY hung up at 156.30 resistance, which corresponds to trendline resistance. Same with Q's. TNA stalled at 39.54 as a result.
--------------
11:06am: Indices trendlines held for now, price dropped away from them. TNA responds by dropping back into consolidation to the 7EMA. No new highs yet. Can the Q's and SPY hold a higher low? That would be some encouragement... perhaps move into a coiling pattern from the current lower lows and lower highs.
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11:09am: price pop on the indices to above their 7 EMA's leaving long lower wicks. Great sign. TNA responds with slightly higher price but hasn't 'taken off' yet. TNA volume rush as it challenges hod. New hod in TNA but indices still struggling to break trendline resistance.
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11:12am: Q's and SPY struggling as sellers continue to get out and not enough buyers to take over... trendlines still holding. TNA holding resistance at high- 39.60's. The good thing is there hasn't been a big volume spike in any of them to indicate a major reversal...
--------------
11:18am: Price made a big run and now the big volume spikes are coming in. I exited half my TNA for a $124 loss. Exited my TDAmeritrade long in TNA at $39.82; a trade that I hadn't made notes of here on the blog. Gain there of $180.
11:21am: Exited the remaining 1000 shares of TNA after big volume spike in the 11:15 candle. Loss of $81 on that. Price pulled back from there but may run higher after the market digests this move. Yesterday was such a huge move down that there is a lot of built up energy to the upside once the selling clears. TNA holding 39.81 support.
Total loss of $205 on this trade, offset by a $180 gain in the TDA retirement account. Net loss of $25 on this fiasco.
SPY now dropping at 10:38, retesting 156.16 support. QQQ retesting support at 68.96. TNA is dead in the water until they make up its mind.
10:40am: TNA dropping as it channels. Now below the 7 EMA and struggling to get back above it.
Minimal volume in all three Issues.
-------------
10:43am: SPY just ticked to LOD. Sure seems to me that SPY is being driven down to test the close from yesterday; lower highs and lower lows. Now QQQ has cracked the LOD. TNA is following. Volume pop may have indicated some buy-stops triggered in TNA? Volumes increasing in all three. Real drop or fake out?
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10:49am: SPY making new lows tick by tick but TNA still showing relative strength... hasn't yet made a new low since 10:00 am.
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QQQ's back toward the middle of consolidation but SPY still weak and holding below moving averages. TNA beginning to show some weakness at 10:52. Not good for now.
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10:57am: SPY making a run at 156.16 s/r and has recoiled after hitting it. TNA made a corresponding run up in sympathy. The markets have to break resistance here for anything to get going. The next hurdle will be a higher high on the 5-minute candles.
-------------
Getting some volume in all three: Q's, SPY and TNA. TNA making a run at the hod.
--------------
11:02am: SPY hung up at 156.30 resistance, which corresponds to trendline resistance. Same with Q's. TNA stalled at 39.54 as a result.
--------------
11:06am: Indices trendlines held for now, price dropped away from them. TNA responds by dropping back into consolidation to the 7EMA. No new highs yet. Can the Q's and SPY hold a higher low? That would be some encouragement... perhaps move into a coiling pattern from the current lower lows and lower highs.
--------------
11:09am: price pop on the indices to above their 7 EMA's leaving long lower wicks. Great sign. TNA responds with slightly higher price but hasn't 'taken off' yet. TNA volume rush as it challenges hod. New hod in TNA but indices still struggling to break trendline resistance.
--------------
11:12am: Q's and SPY struggling as sellers continue to get out and not enough buyers to take over... trendlines still holding. TNA holding resistance at high- 39.60's. The good thing is there hasn't been a big volume spike in any of them to indicate a major reversal...
--------------
11:18am: Price made a big run and now the big volume spikes are coming in. I exited half my TNA for a $124 loss. Exited my TDAmeritrade long in TNA at $39.82; a trade that I hadn't made notes of here on the blog. Gain there of $180.
11:21am: Exited the remaining 1000 shares of TNA after big volume spike in the 11:15 candle. Loss of $81 on that. Price pulled back from there but may run higher after the market digests this move. Yesterday was such a huge move down that there is a lot of built up energy to the upside once the selling clears. TNA holding 39.81 support.
Total loss of $205 on this trade, offset by a $180 gain in the TDA retirement account. Net loss of $25 on this fiasco.
cont'd
Selling pressure on the SPY causing it to hang in consolidation. TNA not moving as a result. Have to clear the frightened sellers out of the way. TNA at 39.50... looks like it wants to really take off if the market lets it.
SPY still struggling to get out of consolidation, now drooping at 10:13am... TNA stuck and selling down a little. EMA's of both stocks are still pointed up.
I'd really like to see a higher high in TNA!
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SPY just made a quick dip down to the 17 EMA and popped back up to the 7 EMA while TNA didn't move. That is a bullish short term signal for TNA: it is showing relative strength to the market at this moment.
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SPY and QQQ just dove down in 10:15 candle, but TNA didn't crash in concert with it. TNA maintaining its relative strength. I think because many of the panicked 2:45pm longs from yesterday have cleared in TNA and those in SPY and QQQ have not? Not sure...
My gut has now entertained the idea that the markets want to drop to pick up the stranded shorts from yesterday's close... that would not be a good development for me.
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For pattern traders, it appears that the markets and TNA are making a reverse head/shoulders pattern. 12:30 to 2:30pm yesterday as the left shoulder, the close pricing is the head, and now the right shoulder is forming through consolidation.
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10:29: Still a lot of selling in SPY, but I like the look of the TNA chart. It looks right now like it wants to go up from here... still above the 7 EMA but can' break free.
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10:32am: SPY trying to run up but selling came in at 156.40 and drove it down. It wants to pop but so many people got caught long before the final dip into yesterday's close. They're holding the market down with their exits. TNA holding... not moving more than a few pennies at a time.
SPY still struggling to get out of consolidation, now drooping at 10:13am... TNA stuck and selling down a little. EMA's of both stocks are still pointed up.
I'd really like to see a higher high in TNA!
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SPY just made a quick dip down to the 17 EMA and popped back up to the 7 EMA while TNA didn't move. That is a bullish short term signal for TNA: it is showing relative strength to the market at this moment.
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SPY and QQQ just dove down in 10:15 candle, but TNA didn't crash in concert with it. TNA maintaining its relative strength. I think because many of the panicked 2:45pm longs from yesterday have cleared in TNA and those in SPY and QQQ have not? Not sure...
My gut has now entertained the idea that the markets want to drop to pick up the stranded shorts from yesterday's close... that would not be a good development for me.
-------------
For pattern traders, it appears that the markets and TNA are making a reverse head/shoulders pattern. 12:30 to 2:30pm yesterday as the left shoulder, the close pricing is the head, and now the right shoulder is forming through consolidation.
--------------
10:29: Still a lot of selling in SPY, but I like the look of the TNA chart. It looks right now like it wants to go up from here... still above the 7 EMA but can' break free.
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10:32am: SPY trying to run up but selling came in at 156.40 and drove it down. It wants to pop but so many people got caught long before the final dip into yesterday's close. They're holding the market down with their exits. TNA holding... not moving more than a few pennies at a time.
S & P in charge?
At times, TNA is relatively strong or weak compared to how SPY moves. Right now, TNA seems to be in lockstep with the market. The SPY will be a clue as to how TNA moves.
SPY moving up and TNA side by side; $39.30
I expect as SPY gets up to 156.70, the wave of traders who got long the market at 2:45 pm yesterday will begin selling, further dampening any move up. We'll see how TNA responds. TNA has already risen to that corresponding resistance area at the open and experienced the selling at that level.
SPY moving up and TNA side by side; $39.30
I expect as SPY gets up to 156.70, the wave of traders who got long the market at 2:45 pm yesterday will begin selling, further dampening any move up. We'll see how TNA responds. TNA has already risen to that corresponding resistance area at the open and experienced the selling at that level.
April 16 (Loss $184)
S & P Futures spent all night recovering from yesterday's major drop. Lots of speculation that one or two major financial players got slapped with margin calls and had to liquidate positions in equities and gold to meet the requirement. Grey swan event? Further, a number of good earnings releases this morning has boosted the markets.
--------
TNA is still down from my entry price of $40.05 but at least at the open it appears that price is close to recovery. Not sure now as TNA is dropping perhaps to fill the gap. As soon as price opened and climbed to the $39.75 area, all those traders who got long at 2:45 yesterday and during the consolidation area beforehand, are selling as their trades get close to or meet their breakeven. My play is that once that selling pressure has abated, price will continue to climb. As price climbs above the $39.75 area, there will be continued selling pressure until the sleepless traders have flattened their positions and can breathe again. Then price will rise until the next wave of freaked-out traders who didn't stop out come in to sell... and on and on. This is the market at work.
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At least that's my opinion. I could very easily be wrong. Right now price is holding $39.20 and not showing signs of rising.
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TNA is still down from my entry price of $40.05 but at least at the open it appears that price is close to recovery. Not sure now as TNA is dropping perhaps to fill the gap. As soon as price opened and climbed to the $39.75 area, all those traders who got long at 2:45 yesterday and during the consolidation area beforehand, are selling as their trades get close to or meet their breakeven. My play is that once that selling pressure has abated, price will continue to climb. As price climbs above the $39.75 area, there will be continued selling pressure until the sleepless traders have flattened their positions and can breathe again. Then price will rise until the next wave of freaked-out traders who didn't stop out come in to sell... and on and on. This is the market at work.
--------
At least that's my opinion. I could very easily be wrong. Right now price is holding $39.20 and not showing signs of rising.
Monday, April 15, 2013
April 15 - Sad Day... (Gain $20.40)
So sad to hear of the horrific events in Boston. Awful doesn't begin to describe.
-----------------------------
It is trivial in comparison but I have to mention that my market activities were a disaster today.
It was the largest daily move in TNA since last August, and I chose a point to go long with many more shares than normal. I had a good spot to go long after watching the market drop considerably. I got in and TNA went down in a pattern I had seen many times, so I waited for the pop. Price went up to within 10 cents of my entry, then dropped. I liked my price because had I waited to enter after the second leg down on substantial relative volume and a large total price drop from last night's close, so I decided to hold.
The market kept dropping but there appeared to be a nice recovery started 2:35 pm into 3:00pm; price cleared both 7 & 17 ema's... then the bombing... after that, there was no chance of an EOD pop. Perhaps there was no pop coming anyway. I am of the suspicion that the moves in the market are somewhat pre-ordained... I have heard this phrase and believe it myself: The Charts Lead The News.
-----------------------------
When one trades without stops, one is often at or very close to a pivot area. That is where I am now. Sadly, I got sloppy and overconfident. Carelessness and arrogance are not good traits and especially bad when trading; these types of days happen: major news events like China's bad economic numbers and terrorist acts.
-----------------------------
With the huge single day drop, I'm hoping for a pop tomorrow so I can get out without too much loss; perhaps the consolidation area at $39.80 where many traders are trapped long and waiting for "rescue." Market and stocks don't go straight up nor do they go straight down. TNA has gone straight down since last Thursday, as I had predicted right here on the blog. What I was doing fading a big down move that I had expected is something I must ponder over the coming days and weeks.
As I mentioned on Friday, so much of trading is trusting the things one has learned and sticking with them. BTW, I was short TNA at $41.31 just as it was starting to break down from the 10:00-11:00am consolidation. It wasn't moving for me so I got out with a tiny gain $20.40 ... in hindsight, it was literally a perfect entry on a monster move down.
-----------------------------
Technically, I have a good feel for the charts and my reading of direction has improved markedly over the last 6 months. But I still struggle with the mental aspects of trading and I have become cocky because i feel so comfortable with the market and charts.
And today on a monster move, I am reaping what I have sown.
-----------------------------
It is trivial in comparison but I have to mention that my market activities were a disaster today.
It was the largest daily move in TNA since last August, and I chose a point to go long with many more shares than normal. I had a good spot to go long after watching the market drop considerably. I got in and TNA went down in a pattern I had seen many times, so I waited for the pop. Price went up to within 10 cents of my entry, then dropped. I liked my price because had I waited to enter after the second leg down on substantial relative volume and a large total price drop from last night's close, so I decided to hold.
The market kept dropping but there appeared to be a nice recovery started 2:35 pm into 3:00pm; price cleared both 7 & 17 ema's... then the bombing... after that, there was no chance of an EOD pop. Perhaps there was no pop coming anyway. I am of the suspicion that the moves in the market are somewhat pre-ordained... I have heard this phrase and believe it myself: The Charts Lead The News.
-----------------------------
When one trades without stops, one is often at or very close to a pivot area. That is where I am now. Sadly, I got sloppy and overconfident. Carelessness and arrogance are not good traits and especially bad when trading; these types of days happen: major news events like China's bad economic numbers and terrorist acts.
-----------------------------
With the huge single day drop, I'm hoping for a pop tomorrow so I can get out without too much loss; perhaps the consolidation area at $39.80 where many traders are trapped long and waiting for "rescue." Market and stocks don't go straight up nor do they go straight down. TNA has gone straight down since last Thursday, as I had predicted right here on the blog. What I was doing fading a big down move that I had expected is something I must ponder over the coming days and weeks.
As I mentioned on Friday, so much of trading is trusting the things one has learned and sticking with them. BTW, I was short TNA at $41.31 just as it was starting to break down from the 10:00-11:00am consolidation. It wasn't moving for me so I got out with a tiny gain $20.40 ... in hindsight, it was literally a perfect entry on a monster move down.
-----------------------------
Technically, I have a good feel for the charts and my reading of direction has improved markedly over the last 6 months. But I still struggle with the mental aspects of trading and I have become cocky because i feel so comfortable with the market and charts.
And today on a monster move, I am reaping what I have sown.
Friday, April 12, 2013
Weekly Gain $679.41
This does not include the $800 trading gain I had in the TD Ameritrade account this week. I have decided to not include them in the total.
Here is last week's results for Tuesday through Friday. Monday isn't included because IB only gives me the prior 6 days, not 7.
Here is last week's results for Tuesday through Friday. Monday isn't included because IB only gives me the prior 6 days, not 7.
Friday ( Gain: $190.42 )
My overnight short idea was a good one and TNA opened 43.47 but then went straight up. I held thinking it would reverse pretty quickly and it didn't. It started back down again and I exited. Now it is plummeting; hitting 43.35. I left real money on the table because I didn't trust my analysis. Patience and faith are big parts of trading. Exited with a $58 gain at $43.69.
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10:02: Price now down to 43.17.... missed a lot of opportunity as a result of my early exit.
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10:24: Shorted 250 sh TNA, covered 10:37am Gain of $33.
I entered into the middle of a consolidation area which is undisciplined and uncertain (chickenshit) trading in my opinion. And I did it... and it paid me which does not make it ideal. Looking for a high-vol flush to the downside before I choose to go long.
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10:47: Long 750 sh TNA @ 42.85
11:28: Sold 250 shares at 42.87; Gain 4.59 (breakeven). Lessen my risk by 1/3.
--------------------
11.32: Sold 250 sh at 42.91; Gain 14.64. Lessen my remaining risk by 1/2.
--------------------
11:51 Sold 250 sh at 43.08; Gain 56.94. All out.
This day so far is an example of sloppy, unfocused trading. I'm stopping to evaluate.
I may do some practice trading to get my head right.
-------------------
1:15 After lunch and some walking around to reset my mind, I am back at the computer. TNA is consolidating around 43.20 (note the 12:05 doji) I suspect it will settle in this area for awhile as traders sort out the movement today.
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3:01 Saw a long trade that fit my edge so I took 250 shares long TNA at 43.20. Exited all at $43.30 at 3:12pm. Gain $22.93.
3:18 Price just reached 43.40 I left 10 cents on the table; double my gain.
-------------------
Thoughts:
Price dipped at 11:05 am to 42.40; wrote last night that I thought it would get to an even $42 before bouncing. I can't help thinking it still will though the odds are that it won't be today. In fact, on the upside, it could run to the $43.90 area.
The DOW has recovered a bit but the S & P is comparatively weaker on the day. I am not in the market prediction business and I am often wrong with my targets. A market veteran who once had a blog I closely followed would write that one should never set targets at all; it colors one's judgement. Perhaps that is where I will end up!
I am getting better at recognizing market extremes and trading them. Mean reversion trading is my preferred style and always has been my predilection. This type of trading is less profitable and often riskier than trading trends outward from the mean. It is my goal to be comfortable trading any direction so I do have room for improvement. To my credit, I recognize my weaknesses, I want to improve, and I recognize when and why I am performing below par.
To enhance my opportunities, I am beginning to take advantage of the fractal nature of markets; to scan multiple time frames for entry points. For instance, I was willing to absorb risk by shorting yesterday into today knowing I might be down at the open but recognizing the multi-day trend was too extended and a market drop was the higher percentage play.
-
I am going to sit and watch rest of day and perhaps take a trade if a price extreme presents itself. I will not be in the market over the weekend no matter what situation presents itself. Stops will be respected.
-
Reviewing the SPY historical chart tells a story... it says EXTENDED. This run up is very nearly played out I'd guess, if not on its way down from here. The chart has not shown us a big volume surge that often presents just prior to big reversal, however, so Mrs. BlueCollar and I are remaining net long the market in some position investments that do not trade; mutual fund stuff. The old saying that bulls make money and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered is always milling around my mind as markets extend themselves. I will likely be scaling back on those soon... always ready to recommit when I am wrong.
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10:02: Price now down to 43.17.... missed a lot of opportunity as a result of my early exit.
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10:24: Shorted 250 sh TNA, covered 10:37am Gain of $33.
I entered into the middle of a consolidation area which is undisciplined and uncertain (chickenshit) trading in my opinion. And I did it... and it paid me which does not make it ideal. Looking for a high-vol flush to the downside before I choose to go long.
---------------------
10:47: Long 750 sh TNA @ 42.85
11:28: Sold 250 shares at 42.87; Gain 4.59 (breakeven). Lessen my risk by 1/3.
--------------------
11.32: Sold 250 sh at 42.91; Gain 14.64. Lessen my remaining risk by 1/2.
--------------------
11:51 Sold 250 sh at 43.08; Gain 56.94. All out.
This day so far is an example of sloppy, unfocused trading. I'm stopping to evaluate.
I may do some practice trading to get my head right.
-------------------
1:15 After lunch and some walking around to reset my mind, I am back at the computer. TNA is consolidating around 43.20 (note the 12:05 doji) I suspect it will settle in this area for awhile as traders sort out the movement today.
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3:01 Saw a long trade that fit my edge so I took 250 shares long TNA at 43.20. Exited all at $43.30 at 3:12pm. Gain $22.93.
3:18 Price just reached 43.40 I left 10 cents on the table; double my gain.
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Thoughts:
Price dipped at 11:05 am to 42.40; wrote last night that I thought it would get to an even $42 before bouncing. I can't help thinking it still will though the odds are that it won't be today. In fact, on the upside, it could run to the $43.90 area.
The DOW has recovered a bit but the S & P is comparatively weaker on the day. I am not in the market prediction business and I am often wrong with my targets. A market veteran who once had a blog I closely followed would write that one should never set targets at all; it colors one's judgement. Perhaps that is where I will end up!
I am getting better at recognizing market extremes and trading them. Mean reversion trading is my preferred style and always has been my predilection. This type of trading is less profitable and often riskier than trading trends outward from the mean. It is my goal to be comfortable trading any direction so I do have room for improvement. To my credit, I recognize my weaknesses, I want to improve, and I recognize when and why I am performing below par.
To enhance my opportunities, I am beginning to take advantage of the fractal nature of markets; to scan multiple time frames for entry points. For instance, I was willing to absorb risk by shorting yesterday into today knowing I might be down at the open but recognizing the multi-day trend was too extended and a market drop was the higher percentage play.
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I am going to sit and watch rest of day and perhaps take a trade if a price extreme presents itself. I will not be in the market over the weekend no matter what situation presents itself. Stops will be respected.
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Reviewing the SPY historical chart tells a story... it says EXTENDED. This run up is very nearly played out I'd guess, if not on its way down from here. The chart has not shown us a big volume surge that often presents just prior to big reversal, however, so Mrs. BlueCollar and I are remaining net long the market in some position investments that do not trade; mutual fund stuff. The old saying that bulls make money and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered is always milling around my mind as markets extend themselves. I will likely be scaling back on those soon... always ready to recommit when I am wrong.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Here's why my TNA / TZA trades are struggling to come to fruition...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/short-squeeze-continues
"The 'most shorted' names in the Russell 3000 are up a remarkable 1.4% today compared to 0.45% in the index itself. The short-squeeze off the NFP gap-down lows is impressive indeed. From the open last Friday, the 'most short' names are up 6.6% against the index up only 3.5% as the dash for trash continues in the face of increasingly dismal data. The last 2 times that the 'most short' index was this squeezed relative to the index was late-December (before the equity dip) and mid-Fed (before the equity dip). Just as we warned here and here, the inexorable flow of easy money means the dash-for-trash (as remarkably ridiculous as it seems - though as now know nothing is allowed to fail ever again) has been the winning trade; though as we note below, there is a limit to the 'squeezability' and we appear to be there in the short term.
"The 'most shorted' names in the Russell 3000 are up a remarkable 1.4% today compared to 0.45% in the index itself. The short-squeeze off the NFP gap-down lows is impressive indeed. From the open last Friday, the 'most short' names are up 6.6% against the index up only 3.5% as the dash for trash continues in the face of increasingly dismal data. The last 2 times that the 'most short' index was this squeezed relative to the index was late-December (before the equity dip) and mid-Fed (before the equity dip). Just as we warned here and here, the inexorable flow of easy money means the dash-for-trash (as remarkably ridiculous as it seems - though as now know nothing is allowed to fail ever again) has been the winning trade; though as we note below, there is a limit to the 'squeezability' and we appear to be there in the short term.
The 'most short' names have been smashed higher in the last few days with Tuesday and today being more epic squeezes..."
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Here's what has happened when it gets like this:
THIS IS WHY I'M HOLDING.
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Here's what has happened when it gets like this:
THIS IS WHY I'M HOLDING.
Today... ( Gain: $51.27 )
Still holding my TNA short but have shorted 750 more shares at 44.39 giving me a full position short at an average price of $44.11.
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Also preparing to go long TZA in our retirement account if a certain trigger is hit.
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11:13am: Long 2000 shares of TZA at $36.61 in my TDA account.
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12:01pm: Had a $550 gain in my TZA trade but I'm holding. Same with my TNA, holding. I think the market is going to give back all of today's run-up, if not more.
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1:41pm: QQQ and SPY rallying but TNA/TZA are not going for it. They are holding price while the markets pump. That relationship is a good sign for my trades.
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1:54pm: Exit both positions; TNA out at $44.08 and TZA out at $37.02.
Gain of $44 in TNA and $800 in TZA. Looking for a chance now to enter the other way.
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2:10pm; Went long TNA 250 shares but exited with a tiny gain of $7.27 when it just sat there and did nothing. Basically, I'm looking for a big volume flush on the downside in TNA before going long with any conviction. And, it is important to note that I exited far too soon on my overnight short of TNA and my long trade in TZA. I left 23 cents on the table in TNA; $230 that I didn't book. In TZA, I left $360 behind by getting out.
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2:23pm: Looks like that TNA long I put on at 2:05pm is getting some 'run;' up to $44.04. My guess is that it will pop to about $44.15 area.
______________________________________________________________________
2:36pm: And it has already hit $44.17... Left up to 22 cents per share on the table by exiting my 2:06pm trade too soon. So much of trading is trusting what one has learned.
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3:26pm: Some choppiness here in TNA, though the moves would pay if one could get in and out in a timely way. If this thing jumps with authority, I'm going to short (lightly) into it for overnight. We are still way too high on this 5 day move in the Small Caps, in my opinion.
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3:44pm: TNA has given up its gains from the morning rally, as I had suspected it might. Getting a little bump here in the last 15 minutes. We're not getting a serious pop in TNA such that I would short it overnight. I was looking for it to run up near the 44.45 area as a test of the 1:00pm peak.
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3:59pm: Shorted 250 shares of TNA at 43.93 for the overnight. My gut tells me this thing is coming down some more, even if it opens with gap up. Entering small and seeing what tomorrow brings. I think $42 is conceivable.
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Also preparing to go long TZA in our retirement account if a certain trigger is hit.
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11:13am: Long 2000 shares of TZA at $36.61 in my TDA account.
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12:01pm: Had a $550 gain in my TZA trade but I'm holding. Same with my TNA, holding. I think the market is going to give back all of today's run-up, if not more.
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1:41pm: QQQ and SPY rallying but TNA/TZA are not going for it. They are holding price while the markets pump. That relationship is a good sign for my trades.
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1:54pm: Exit both positions; TNA out at $44.08 and TZA out at $37.02.
Gain of $44 in TNA and $800 in TZA. Looking for a chance now to enter the other way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:10pm; Went long TNA 250 shares but exited with a tiny gain of $7.27 when it just sat there and did nothing. Basically, I'm looking for a big volume flush on the downside in TNA before going long with any conviction. And, it is important to note that I exited far too soon on my overnight short of TNA and my long trade in TZA. I left 23 cents on the table in TNA; $230 that I didn't book. In TZA, I left $360 behind by getting out.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:23pm: Looks like that TNA long I put on at 2:05pm is getting some 'run;' up to $44.04. My guess is that it will pop to about $44.15 area.
______________________________________________________________________
2:36pm: And it has already hit $44.17... Left up to 22 cents per share on the table by exiting my 2:06pm trade too soon. So much of trading is trusting what one has learned.
______________________________________________________________________
3:26pm: Some choppiness here in TNA, though the moves would pay if one could get in and out in a timely way. If this thing jumps with authority, I'm going to short (lightly) into it for overnight. We are still way too high on this 5 day move in the Small Caps, in my opinion.
______________________________________________________________________
3:44pm: TNA has given up its gains from the morning rally, as I had suspected it might. Getting a little bump here in the last 15 minutes. We're not getting a serious pop in TNA such that I would short it overnight. I was looking for it to run up near the 44.45 area as a test of the 1:00pm peak.
______________________________________________________________________
3:59pm: Shorted 250 shares of TNA at 43.93 for the overnight. My gut tells me this thing is coming down some more, even if it opens with gap up. Entering small and seeing what tomorrow brings. I think $42 is conceivable.
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