"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Three and done today



I took three trades today... the three I outlined in earlier posts. All three stop losses, but not one was ever in the money. These were dead stinkin' losers. Losers on a day that had tremendous opportunity if one could get onboard the trend. Once again, I was insisting the market reverse direction and the market said no. I need to reexamine my mental biases against trend trading. My first impulse this morning was to go with the trend, but I simply marked the chart with the orange line instead of clicking the mouse. I am not clear as to why... I'll be giving a lot of thought to why I look for mean reversion/reversals when I am under pressure/anxiety. It is a peculiar bias. If I had taken that first trade long instead of just marking the chart, I would have been in for a big ride on a winner because my rules of exit would have kept me in for the entire day; no stop-out and a +$2.00 gain. Anyway, it was not to be.



There's always tomorrow.

stopped out again




Took another short at a really bad place, looking for a breakdown as price dipped. This was the bottom of consolidation chop just as price was reversing up... a truly bush-league move. My head is not in this right now. The best way to tell if one is making bad decisions is when one takes a trade and gets caught going the wrong way as price turns and goes the other. That's what I did. I am taking the "obvious" trades, ones that are exploited by the experienced traders on the correct side of the action. Getting caught on the wrong foot this way is purely emotional, reactive trading. It doesn't fit with the amount of training I have done and my cahrt-reading abilities.
Quite frankly, I know what is causing this. Anxiety will wreak havoc with a person's trading senses and we have plenty in our lives right now. For a week I have been struggling with eating correctly, maintaining my exercise regimen, and retaining the confidence that I will be able to continue with learning to trade full-time. Financial pressures are building at home because Mrs. Bluecollar and her employer of 15 years parted ways a few months ago. They had treated her like garbage for years, as I have mentioned once or twice on this blog. Neither of us are working currently. Second shift jobs are rare around here, and that is what I need to keep my days free to trade. A lot of people depend on her and me, which makes it hard to make the substantial changes in lifestyle necessary to keep me learning to trade full time. This is incredibly frustrating, to be so close to success and not able to quite grasp it. I am on the right path, but not ready to trade live yet. With the need to be profitable always weighing on my mind, it is easy for me to force trades. And that is exactly what beginners do... which is why my decisions of late are akin to a beginner's. This is always a mental game.

shorted again, and stopped out




Shorted again and stopped out. momo has stalled with small candles and weak volume.


One interesting thing to note... I mentioned earlier in my first post today that the short orange line pointing to the 9:40 candle was my first reaction; I was thinking about going long. The thing to note is that the pullback from 9:55 through 10:20 am came back to that very level. Price retests the "obvious or impulse" decision areas. And those areas don't always show on a 5-minute chart. If you look at the 10:40 am candle now, you won't see the price action that caused the "impulse decions" of those traders. My guess is that a bunch of real-money traders got short at the price where I put that orange line. Like my first impulse, buyers were on the other side, the correct side of the trade and price moved up. Price came back down here, however; panicked shorts who didn't stop out gave a huge sigh of relief and covered, sending the price back up on this current leg of the uptrend.

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Trading is Gamesmanship.

coincidence? I say no...



The pullback did come slightly later than I expected, but isn't it interesting that the pullback came down to my short entry spot, then bounced up.

How do I know I am not ready for real money trading? Because I was part of the herd that impulsively went short at that 55.84 level. Price continued up then came back down to retest it, the shorts there at 55.84 who didn't stop out during the pop bought to cover and the price jumped as a result (see chart).

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Might get some consolidation here...

first of the day




stopped out on the first of the day. sure seems like momo has slowed though. expecting a pull back or drop here. Orange line pointing to the 9:40 candle indicates my first impulse: to go long with the trend... that would have been the smart play. I still must work on not going for reversal plays as a matter of habit. Price is climbing as I write this so the pull back is not imminent.