"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

first trade since my losing streak earlier




After watching the market for the second half of the trading session, I took this long in BIDU when I thought the market might make a little late day pop. I had a 40 cent winner in BIDU but because it was only 3:40 pm and I still needed 5 mins before I could exit a trade without stopping it out, I couldn't take the gain. While writing this, price has dropped down and I had to stop it out inside my window of opportunity; it was stopped out at 3:45:40 seconds. Bummer, the pop ended just before I could take the money and run. Doesn't matter, I picked a good spot to go long with the direction of a short-term trend, had an acceptable gain, and kept faithful to my exit rules even though it was so close. The only one I would have hurt by cashing it in early would have been me, so all stop out losses today but ending on what I consider a positive note.

Done and just watching

My natural reaction, for some reason, is to look for the reversal and play for mean reversion. It has been so since I started practice trading. Riding the prevailing trend is not what comes to mind when I see movement. This is unfortunate on days like today. I have been really punished, expecting a turn when the market is uni-directional. Makes for a frustrating day. On any of those trades against trend, I could have waited until price hit the 7 EMA and entered short on the next candle as it started to go down and I would have been in on a spectacular winner trade. After all, my trading rules would keep me from taking early gains. Terrific on a day like today. But that requires a mental lightness and flexibility that eludes me today.
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A couple weeks ago, when I first started committing to my strict exit rules, I was finally in a mental state that allowed me to go with trend. In addition to the elation from stopping out consistently and not taking profits far too early after nice entries, I was going with trend instead of this old habit. I am clearly back to entrenched, "safe & comfortable" thinking. But safe is not successful.
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As I write this, price has popped after bottoming seven cents below my last stop out. But, any one of the losses could have been "the bottom" before the reversal. After all, with so many of them, I was bound to find the bottom eventually!
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On the bright side of the road, I hit every stop out, without hesitation. I did get one really lousy fill, but that is the market talking its language. On a day like today though, I wonder how I would have reacted if it was real money? That is where my uncertainty lies now. The fact that the last two put a twinge in my gut tells me that I am taking them seriously. But, until real cash is on the line, I won't know for sure.
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Now I must think again, like I began to do a couple weeks ago, to trade against my habit and go WITH trend.

stopped again



This one stings, even though I am trying hard to manage emotions. Also feels like a "head fake" or punked move. I think the big move up I've been trying for is very close, just

because of how sharp that down move was and how volume was ramping at what might likely be the end of the trend.

long and added to the winner



Long again, and added when it looked strong. Only adding to winners... of course chances are it will be a stop-loss because I can only exit on stop out or EOD.

stopped again



stopped out for the fourth time trying to trade against a prominent trend. Way past the time to stop and watch...

Another bite at the apple. Long again



Am I revenge trading? Not sure, it doesn't feel that way. I just believe that what moves in one direction must also move the other way eventually. It's all about timing... on all three stopouts so far, I have been very close to a momo change. It's just that when movement is all in one direction during a day, those reversal moves turn out to be small pullbacks lacking commitment by buyers (in this case of a dropping market).

Third time's a charm? Long again.








Long again, then stopped out... again!




One of these days I learn to reverse direction.

stopped out



stopped out again, price going down. It's frustrating that I tend to favor reversal plays even if the trend is strongly in one direction.

Long again, against the major trend




Long again, maybe in choppy consolidation. Time will tell if I'm trading in choppy conditions here. My gut tells me I might be in the Suckers' Channel, where I will get stopped out on progressively lower channel boundary pushes up and down until stops are tripped, weak hands are forced out, and new money and big money can dictate the terms.

just a pullback?



It appears at the moment that the momo shift I tried to capitalize on

earlier might have only been a pullback. price is dipping again.

stopped out







stopped out, but on the lookout for it happening very near the bottom of this trend. my sense is a reversal of some sort is near at hand...



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second screen shot shows the pop I was waiting for but I was typing this post and missed it. stopped out 5 cents from the bottom. Darn, and I knew it was coming. As I have observed often, it takes great tactical skills once one can feel momentum changes are coming...

First of the day



I'm long here, though I might be a bit early for any reversal. We'll see soon. As I write this and wait for the screenshot to load, price is down and almost touching my stopline.