"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Monday, April 30, 2012

Friday's last trade and today...










Isn't it interesting that on Friday, my last move of the day was to short TNA for an expected breakdown, but closed it essentially even before the day ended. Going to the text of one of my early posts on Friday, I noted that I was expecting TNA to break down to the $60.10 to 60.20 area or even down to $59.65. Well, as I write this, TNA is below both those levels, indicating my short choice at EOD Friday was a good read and my level of $59.65 was relevant... that is where price rebounded to after the opening drive today. The lower orange line on the chart was another level I was looking at Friday, though I didn't think it would be hit that day. Well, if you note the lower, more recent chart, it was just hit and price bounced off it; with a high level of trader participation at that spot (volume spike).


It would appear that my two levels are the channel boundaries inside which TNA is travelling for the time being.


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As to my short at the end of day Friday, my original stop line would have held and allowed me to stay in for the drop. My revised stop line would not have. Had I not closed the trade willingly, it would have stopped out on a "punked out" candle at 3:55 though again, my orginal stop would have held up; note the long upper wick on the 3:55 pm candle just before the drop that extended into today. I continue to be encouraged by my instincts and my overall reading of the charts. I definitely need a lot of work on execution. Of course, I would not have held over night and certainly not over the weekend. But it is enough to know that I was on the right track.


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I am still keeping an eye on that level that I referenced from Friday... the one at which I had thought about entering long for the eventual move up. I marked it with the magenta colored line at $60.31. I am making no predictions, but I think it will show some relevance, if only for a brief time period. Releveance meaning that some activity may take place there. Anyone who got short at that level and was suffering as the stock climbed away from them on Friday afternoon was rewarded with a nice gain this morning when TNA dropped below their entry spot. So maybe the "hope and pray" traders got out and activity will be minimal at the magenta line. We'll see what happens when or if price retests that spot. I'm still learning about this stuff ; watching these levels that my experience has shown as often significant is just another bend on the upward sloping learning curve.

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