Seems like forever since I was able to sit in front of a live market.
After so much time I actually get a bit apprehensive; nervous energy flowing through me as I sign in. My results since the beginning of August have been mixed at best and ambivalence would be the best word for it.
Today though, I decided to try to ride the crazy train once I signed in around 3:20 pm: FAS, the 3x financial bull. It was consolidating after its big run from 2:20 to 2:25-ish and had hit a near doji at 3:20pm. I waited until the start of the 3:25 candle then went short, sensing that the market and FAS were going to break support and drop. Well, it didn't! It went the opposite and jumped while doing it. Man, it sure is hard to anticipate these moves. Afterward, they seem so easy to see why they happen. In this case, the near-doji was an indicator of reversal, as it often is. Why didn't I play it that way? I just had a hunch it would drop... I was guessing instead of reading the candles and playing the probabilities as I've outlined them for myself here many times. I stuck with the trade and was rewarded three candles later with the drop I had sensed was coming. However, I had let the stock go well beyond an acceptable stop... in fact, it went to HOD before reversing. Definitely a no-no. My gut told me there was weakness, but common sense still should have prevailed. Anyway, it is just practice... I've been out of the markets for most of a month and I jumped in on one of the most volatile big-cap runners out there. Today was just to get the feel back. Much is still crazy here in my real-life so my time will be limited for much of this month too. I'll try to get in as often as I can and post as much as possible. As I've mentioned before, I ignored my work so much over the past 8-9 months that I must get back on track by putting it first and stop treating stock trading as if it pays the bills. I believe it will one day but not in the forseeable future. I don't yet have the time required to properly learn it.
Mine is the life of a real person with responsibilities and daily matters to attend to, just like many of you. If anything, this blog is about all of us and the struggles we face every day to try to learn this frustrating and fickle craft.
Good trading to everyone this week!
At what point did you feel bad for going into the stock? If you remember, that should be your stop limit. I'm papertrading myself now while I apply for a prop trading firm, and I agree its hard to just exit, especially when things are moving fast (and I always want to be right). Even if you can spend 15 min a day trading, I think it's worth it as that way you can say you learned something new each day.
ReplyDeleteBecause I am not a practiced trader with the ability to peg great entries, I often let the stock travel outside the comfort "stop" area in orer to test my gut instincts of reversals of direction with a trade on. Unlike back in the spring and summer whenI was trading as if it were real money, now I am trading to develop a feel for movement and am less concerned with paper-dollars won and lost. It was exactly the opposite between February and July, when I spent a great deal of time calculating wins vs. losses and the value of each.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that one must spend a little time each day studying the charts and studying actual live movement of stocks when time allows. Right now, time does not allow me to view live movement, unfortunately. I am considering the forex markets because they trade 24 hours a day and would allow me some face-time watching actual trading while still allowing me to perform my day job.
I prefer the US stock markets, because that is what i am familiar with, though.
Best of luck to you. I think you have found as I did that one does not necessarily have to trade with real dollars to learn stock movement or to develop your edge. That is an important concept for new traders like you and me.
I haven't done much research on it, but I wonder if there is a simulator out there that has data from a full day of trading, which you can use at any time. Then you could feel real movements from a random trading day, but on your own time.
ReplyDeleteI'll look around and let you know if I see one, if there isn't one that may be an interesting opportunity.
I've wondered that very thing, CN. It's a lot of data to save, though... Maybe one stock out of a given day could be saved and followed during off-hours...
ReplyDelete