VOTE

"The Constitution is not an instrument for the government to restrain the people, it is an instrument for the people to restrain the government -- lest it come to dominate our lives and interests." -- Patrick Henry


IF YOU CROSS THE NORTH KOREAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU GET
12 YEARS HARD LABOR

IF YOU CROSS THE IRANIAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU ARE
DETAINED INDEFINITELY.

IF YOU CROSS THE AFGHAN BORDER ILLEGALLY, YOU GET SHOT.

IF YOU CROSS THE SAUDI ARABIAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU
WILL BE JAILED.

IF YOU CROSS THE CHINESE BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU MAY
NEVER BE HEARD FROM AGAIN.

IF YOU CROSS THE VENEZUELAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE
BRANDED A SPY AND YOUR FATE WILL BE SEALED.

IF YOU CROSS THE CUBAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE
THROWN INTO POLITICAL PRISON TO ROT.

IF YOU CROSS THE MEXICAN BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU WILL BE ARRESTED, SHAKEN DOWN, AND UNCEREMONIOUSOY THROWN OUT.

BUT,IF YOU CROSS THE U.S. BORDER ILLEGALLY YOU GET :

1 - A JOB,
2 - A DRIVERS LICENSE,
3 - SOCIAL SECURITY CARD,
4 - WELFARE,
5 - FOOD STAMPS,
6 - CREDIT CARDS,
7 - SUBSIDIZED RENT OR A LOAN TO BUY A HOUSE,
8 - FREE EDUCATION,
9 - FREE HEALTH CARE,
10 - A LOBBYIST IN WASHINGTON
11 - BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS PRINTED
IN YOUR LANGUAGE AND THE RIGHT TO CARRY YOUR COUNTRY'S FLAG WHILE YOU PROTEST THAT YOU DON'T GET ENOUGH RESPECT

I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE I HAD A FIRM GRASP
OF THE SITUATION BEFORE I VOTE ON TUESDAY...

October 28

I had limited time to sit in with the mkts today.

However, I took a two position practice-trade in MCP long near the final consolidation phase of the day; also near the lod. My thought was that it felt like the reversal of the big drop was waiting, mainly because there was so little profit-taking all day, relatively speaking. Unrealized Gains of this magnitude today by the shorts would have to be booked, if the trader had any good sense at all.

And that is where the reversal trader pounces.

October 27th

Here is the buy-to-cover of my CMG practice swing-trade from last week. More drop coming? Yeah, I think so. Am I greedy enough to hold a stock that has some gains sitting there? No.
It appears that I picked a good time to cover, in the short-term. While I write this commentary, price is continuing to rise after my exit. It now sits very close to what was my average share price.

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It's more about being correct in my read of the stock price; reinforcement of the notion that what goes up, must come down (at least to some degree).

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*** UPDATE: It's end of day and it looks like I got the bottom candle of the day on my exit and the full breakdown didn't occur. Perhaps over the next week or two? I'm out and moving on to other stocks, but this one bears watching...

October 22

I was able to watch the markets for a bit yesterday, though very distracted while doing so. I took a paper-trade short in TNA and was able to take a winner out of it, though I gave up some gains by missing the bottom and covering during the start of the retracement of the move I was playing. I consider this approach a positive one... I normally would just cover and run much earlier than I did but I consciously decided to hold. I actually started to feel the momentum shift into a reversal and exited. Much is to be learned by staying in my practice-trades during the reversals of trend instead of anticipating the reversal and getting out prior to it. Patience derived from confidence that my momentum reads are accurate is just one more step on my journey. Let's see if this develops into habit.

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I found CMG through a reading of Scott F.'s post and decided to take a 250 share (25% of my standard trade of 1000 shares) swing-trade short to capture the profit-taking move that at some point will accompany the monster run-up. Recent price surges on substantial volume (April 22, June 3, and July 23 were followed by price retracements. The most recent surge on September 1 did not, however, so maybe the longs are getting cocky!?) Let's see what happens going forward. I am willing to wait for this one to crack and fall. With one-quarter of my traditional investment, I will consider averaging for a better price in 250 share (25 %) increments if it moves substantially against me. I will add more aggressively to the short when it goes into the black, if I haven't yet accumulated 1000 shares (one full position) when the breakdown takes place.

October 19th

I was back at the office briefly to swap service vehicles for the day-job, so I stayed a couple minutes to sign into the markets before heading back out.

I paper-traded some retracements during a big down move. Nothing much to elaborate on, I simply tried to feel changes in momentum for scalping.

Yesterday and today

No practice-trading yesterday... I got to the computer with 9 minutes left in the session.
Unlikely I'll be able to do anything today, either, given my work schedule.

October 15th

I was tuned into the markets afer 1:45 pm and had a couple hours to watch TNA. I took a paper-trade long at what turned out to be a good spot. I definitely exited far too soon. On the second and final practice-trade of the day, I was a bit early on the reversal from down to up and had to sit through some consolidation chop. I sold when the bid hit 53.09 and just as I hit the mouse button, the price plunged as if it had been shot. So, I got a bad fill and managed just a 6-7 cent winner. No matter... I liked the action today and was reasonably satisfied with my performance, though I'd have to only give myself a B- for a grade. Getting caught up in that consolidation zone on the second trade was a sign of impatience. If I'm using 5-min candles to read the market, I have to wait for 5-min candles to emerge and allow patterns to develop more before acting. The odds are better that way.

October 13th

I arrived at the computer around 3:15 pm and caught some nice EOD action in the market. TNA was making some nice runs so I took one paper-trade short, covering in the same candle for a gain. I really love it when price moves smoothly away from entry in my favor... that is a great feeling. I look forward to the day when I've done it so much that it becomes "no big deal." The fact that I get excited by it tells me that there is still too much emotion in my trading.

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I watched to learn for the rest of the day.

October 12th

TNA all the way today... I was able to watch the market for much of the afternoon, though I only took three practice-trades, looking for retracements in a bullish day. I missed a great short for the last 10 mins of the day... the signs were there for a EOD move down.

October 11th

After dumping my CRM from last week, I did two winning paper-trades in MON before having to attend to a family emergency. The orange line at 1:15pm is where I felt the big drop in MON was going to happen, just as I was signing off to go to the hospital. As it turns out, my timing was early (wrong) but my strong feeling that a drop was going to take place did come to pass less than an hour later. I was pegging the drop to reach the Magenta line which would have been a full closing of the morning gap up. It stopped its plunge about 23 cents short of that point.

Maybe tomorrow?

Sitting on a bad trade...

I had this practice-trade work against me at the end of last week and sat on it, waiting for it to break in my favor. Today was the day, and I closed it out. I had a number of chances to add more to it to average a better price and doing so would have given me many opportunities to get out sooner with a gain. But, I didn't add... and so I waited. this was a lousy entry, and lousy execution. No stop on a fast mover that I shouldn't have been involved in to begin with.

Anyway, live and hopefully learn.

Weekend Thought.

HEAVEN AND HELL

While walking down the street one day a Corrupt Senator was tragically
hit by a car and died.

His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

"Welcome to heaven," says St. Peter. "Before you settle in, it seems there
is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see,
so we're not sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," says the Senator..

"Well, I'd like to, but I have orders from the higher ups. What we'll do
is have you spend one day in hell and one in heaven. Then you can choose
where to spend eternity."

"Really?, I've made up my mind. I want to be in heaven," says the Senator.

"I'm sorry, but we have our rules."

And with that, St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down,
down, down to hell.

The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course.
In the distance is a clubhouse and standing in front of it are all his
friends and other politicians who had worked with him.

Everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, shake
his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich
at the expense of the people.
They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster, caviar and
the finest champagne.

Also present is the devil, who really is a very friendly guy who is
having a good time dancing and telling jokes.

They are all having such a good time that before the Senator realizes it,
it is time to go.

Everyone gives him a hearty farewell and waves while the elevator
rises...

The elevator goes up, up, up and the door reopens in heaven where St.
Peter is waiting for him, "Now it's time to visit heaven.."

So, 24 hours passed with the Senator joining a group of contented souls
moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good
time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter
returns.

"Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose
your eternity."

The Senator reflects for a minute, then he answers: "Well, I would never
have said it before, I mean heaven has been delightful, but I think I
would be better off in hell."

So St. Peter escorts him to the elevator and he goes down, down, down to
hell..

Now the doors of the elevator open and he's in the middle of a barren land
covered with waste and garbage. He sees all his friends, dressed in rags,
picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash falls
from above.

The devil comes over to him and puts his arm around his shoulders.

"I don't understand," stammers the Senator. "Yesterday I was here and
there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar,
drank champagne, and danced and had a great time. Now there's just a
wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?"

The devil smiles at him and says,
"Yesterday we were campaigning, Today, you voted.."

October 5th - Tuesday

As it turns out, I wasn't able to sign on to the computer until after 3:30 pm so my time with the markets was limited. TNA is the chart which comes up when I log into QuoteTracker so I usually just focus on that. The markets had a nice trend day so I was looking to capitalize on a drop at the EOD. In the last 5 minutes of the trading session, I felt a small breakdown was in the making so I took a paper-trade short with about 4 minutes remaining. Price dropped away from my entry spot nicely but wasn't moving fast enough for my liking, with only three minutes or so before the close. Bid/Ask was really "squirrely" and I didn't get the best fill price when I covered, yielding only $40 paper-bucks. With two and a half minutes left, I watched the chart to see if my "gut" feeling was correct about a break in price. I was happy to see that my reading of the price action was a good one when price dropped continuously into the close.

A one-minute chart shows that buying increased as price dropped during the 3:58 and 3:59 timeframes, indicated by candles with open/close price in the top half of each candle and long lower wicks. The last minute of the day was different though... sellers ate up the buyers and price dropped with more conviction into the closing bell.

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Recently, I have been trying to think of price movement in terms of what buyers and sellers are doing and thinking rather than as just spots on a chart or candle. I don't know if I am correct in my analysis as I'm doing it but I believe it is going to be helpful in the long run. Don Miller does this, thinking about "who is stuck" at certain price levels in the day. If a stock chart is just a picture of human behavior expressed as prices in a stock, then I think this approach will pay dividends down the road.

October 4th - Monday

I didn't get to put this chart and paper-trade record on the blog last night after market close. Between day-job appointments, I had about 20 minutes at the office around lunch time to look at the markets. I found TNA near the bottom of a long move down and decided to take a long trade where I thought appropriate. I held through a slight drop in the following candle, saw some movement in a positive direction in the next candle, then a pop up. Shortly after the trade went positive for me, I added to it. A slowing of momo in conjunction with having to be at my next day-job appointment at noon suggested that I should exit. I scaled out for two winners.

Because of day-job, I might not get to practice-trade today. I'll see how the schedule breaks down as the day goes on.

October 1st

Today was a real treat for me as I had a chance to watch the markets from 10:00 am until the close. This used to happen a lot in 2009 but not so much anymore. I loved it... At times I just made marks on the charts where I thought things would move along with thoughts about where the market might go.

I paper-traded with TNA looking to take advantage of consolidation breaks as well as paying special attention to S/R levels. Also, used the high likelihood of markets to close gaps in my early evaluation of the markets; something I've paid closer attention to since discovering http://www.coiledmarkets.com/ .

Also, I have found that Adam's blog at SMB Trading ( http://www.smbtraining.com/ ) has been very helpful in understanding technical analysis as it is put in practice. More specifically, this post was interesting and I saved it to my favorites list:

http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/one-of-my-favorite-plays

And of course, no day is complete without reviewing Scott Farnham's many posts at http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/ .

On days like today, it feels to me like the shades are parting and the light is beginning to shine in. I have faith that it will continue, with the proper effort and attention. When, I don't know? But it will. Without faith, we have nothing.