March 2nd

Well, it was a rough day in the end but each tough day is a chance to learn when you are trading, paper-money or not.

It seems that I am destined to repeat the same errors over and over. In the case of today, I was not waiting for the best set-ups; high probability setups. And for the life of me, I cannot help the BAD habit of playing for reversals. This has been a constant issue since I started trading in October. I am always looking for the turn instead of jumping on the move and riding the Momo. This fascination/fixation with picking the end of a move is incredibly frustrating. I don't know if it is the great thrill of catching the beginning of a new move (the satisfaction of "Being Right"), or concern over jumping on momo with the fear that the move is going to end, or some other mental dysfunction. This is something of which I'm aware. It is a pattern. Therefore, with enough attention, I am confident I will correct it someday. It just doesn't look like it will be right away! The whole point of this method of trading is to ride momentum, to hop on the train instead of trying to turn it around (an impossible feat).

I think I'll get the point eventually. I am only about month and a half into playing high-ADR ETF's and not full-time trading. Only a fool would believe 30 days is enough time to master a skill as difficult as this. Some traders speak of 6 months, 1 year, and longer. Scott of Fear & Greed wrote of watching and studying for 2 years before jumping in.

I'll just keep plugging away and trying to improve.

25 Trades for net loss of $1.97 per share. 60% win rate.

Feb 27th

Well, it was another day with much to do other than follow the market. I was on for about 45 minutes, roughly 11:30 to 12:15. The first thing I noticed was that IB had no shares to short of my favorite trading vehicle, the SKF! This was a first for me and I still don't know if it was some sort og glitch or not. The ETF has so much liquidity that it seems unreal that no shorting was possible. Anyway, I was looking at the SRS, GS, and UYG also. GS seemed to be moving enough to give a good chance at gains but I favor the SKF and decided to focus on it although from the long side only.

I went long at 168.25 and picked up 39.5 cents. I had been watching for a continuation move from the prior two candles (1-min) to confirm the reversal of the down leg between 11:57 and 12:01pm. While long, volume was shrinking so I knew this brief covering rally I was a part of was ending. I decided to clear out with the very modest 39.5 cent gain in anticipation of another drop. That drop soon materialized because the very next candle was a $1.62 move down.

Like yesteday, I'll take my one trade gain and prepare for my day-job duties; this one an appointment at 2:00pm.

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1 for 1, 100%. Gain of 1.23 per share.

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February Recap - Added on May 8th, to bring the whole blog into the same format:

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74 for 108 in February, a 68.5% success rate.

(Approximately! Two bad days on the 24th and 25th didn't list any trades out of frustration so I haven't done the research in IB Statements to determine the actual activity. I'll count the losses for now and not the individual trade activity.)

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Monthly Loss of -$6.19 per share.

Days traded: 11

Days with a gain: 8; 72.7% success rate.

Days with a loss: 3; 27.3%. three losing days really killed me, -2.53, -8.00, and -4.50 per share

Feb 26th

This was a quick day for me trading. I watched the SKF during pre-mkt, saw the move down in the 9:33 am candle (on a 1-min timeframe) and shorted 1000 shares at 151.46once I thought it would soundly crack the $151.50 area. Boom, there was the breakdown and I rode through the candle and into the next one as SKF collapsed. I covered at 150.23 for a $1.23 gain per share. I forced myself to sit through the inter-candle chop... I really wanted to bail, truly had the feeling that I should cover when the wick rolled up to the $152.50 range but I bit the bullet, trusted my gut that this was a breakdown in the making and rode it. Now, I still think I got out too early. I covered into the 9:34 am candle at $150.23 but the price dropped fully to about $149. So, that "get out, get out" with short gain mentality is still in my head. Also, the reversal was right around the corner and would have made a nice long play starting with the 9:35 candle (1-min time) through the 9:39 candle if you could have sat still during the 9:38 red profit-taking candle. On a more big-picture view, long at the 9:35 reversal upward would have yielded a stronger gain if you could hold into the 9:49 am candle. It would have taken some fortitude though to sit through the 9:40-9:48 candles... that looks like an uncomfortable waiting period. As I write this, SKF is in the 10:01 candle and is tanking big time. 9:57 -10:01 candles...what a solid move down- 5 straight red candles on a 1-min timeframe!
I'm done and am watching, however! After the past two days, I'm going to take my $1.23 and run. I'm going to try to post today's screen shot onto the blog (thanks to Yngvai's hints on how to do it). We'll see how this goes. Plus, I've got a lot of tax stuff to do today and then volunteer teaching tonight to prep for.
Good luck all.
Green line on the chart indicates "go," my entry point short. Red is "stop," my point of exit.
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1 for 1; 100% winners. Gain of +1.23 per share.