This morning when I pulled up my charting program, I noticed on the Raw Data feed/Time & Sales window for TNA that a serious amount of volume transacted between 4:01 pm and 6:27pm. Exponentially more volume than I've seen on the raw data feed for TNA since I've been monitoring it (3 months).
There were 410 trades of 22,295,253 shares equaling 9.141 billion shares of TNA. Dollar value of same is over $515 Billion! With 410 trades, it is difficult to quickly pin down the average share price... I used $57.80 after glancing at the entire transaction.
That is some SERIOUS weight... I wonder what that means for the market overall? Clearly a big player thinks we are at a turning point and is putting money where their mouth is. Remember that TNA is a 3x mover, so with that 300% multiplier effect coupled with half a trillion dollars... Need I write any more?
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Dr. Menaker's Site is a Gold Mine
I am a fan of Dr. Menaker's ideas and the clarity in which he presents them at his blog www.andrewmenaker.com. If you are like me and have a grasp of the technical/chart analysis portion of trading but just can't reach the "brass ring" of succesful trading, you will find his site a treasure chest of concepts related to the emotional and psychological aspects of working the markets.
This post really made me ponder... I read it three times and so closely identified with it that I had to repost it here. I am most certainly a perfectionist. I absolutely want to do things right the first time and strive for it. I am uncomfortable with failure, which has led me to the following behaviors through much of my life, often to my detriment: over-competitiveness, self-critical thoughts when I do not win, failure to honor effort but instead focusing on achievement/outcome, to name a few. Quite frankly, I don't like the feeling of failure and it manifests itself in negative behaviors both in my private life and in my attempts to trade. It has become clear through my study of human behavior and trading psychology that this is at the root of much of my struggle to trade. I think the fear of criticism and embarassment is likely to blame, and I have always thought that doing things right will prevent it. I see it in other parts of my life: discomfort with public speaking in front of groups of my peers is the one that comes to mind first. I have worked over the past few years to face this down. Back when I still owned my business, I took part in a marketing group of about 20 of my peers that required a brief weekly stand-up synopsis of my business and also a lengthy presentation a few times per year. I also volunteer as an instructor for firearms education and safety, in front of a class of 15-25 students. These have helped tremendously, putting me in positions where I have to confront my insecurities related to public embarasment or criticism; bringing my perfectionism into the light of day. It is important to face emotional walls by repeatedly trying to scale them. The walls become smaller and easier to hurdle by continually meeting them head-on. But how do I transition to doing the same for trading? Unlike acting as an instructor where I make a commitment that I cannot dodge, trading is just me and the computer with nothing other than personal willpower to make me face the challenge. If I run from a commitment that involves other people, the embarassment or criticism is greater than that which comes from the actual public speaking. That same sort of motivation is not present here alone in my office when facing the markets. And that is why I think learning to trade from home is so incredibly difficult.
Here is the blog post and it is followed by a link to the original at his site.
A Question You Need to Ask
May 31st, 2011 Leave a comment Go to comments
Taking a pre-defined loss is part of the business. Exiting a winning trade and watching it continue to work without you is part of the business. Missing an opportunity is part of the business. Many traders cannot accept these realities of the trading business because they have a need for perfection and a need to be right.
Consider the following: You aren’t sure if you should scale your last unit at your target because you notice that momentum has increased and it looks like it could keep going beyond your target – do you hold it? Flatten at your target?
To know what to do, you need to answer the following questions for yourself. First, which is more painful to you…..exiting at your target and watching it run further? Or not exiting at your target and watching it come back in? You also need to know what your default action is when you experience different types of discomfort. Is that typical response of yours adaptive or is it emotionally reactive? Only you know the answer to this question; and it behooves you to know.
http://www.andrewmenaker.com/a-question-you-need-to-ask/
This post really made me ponder... I read it three times and so closely identified with it that I had to repost it here. I am most certainly a perfectionist. I absolutely want to do things right the first time and strive for it. I am uncomfortable with failure, which has led me to the following behaviors through much of my life, often to my detriment: over-competitiveness, self-critical thoughts when I do not win, failure to honor effort but instead focusing on achievement/outcome, to name a few. Quite frankly, I don't like the feeling of failure and it manifests itself in negative behaviors both in my private life and in my attempts to trade. It has become clear through my study of human behavior and trading psychology that this is at the root of much of my struggle to trade. I think the fear of criticism and embarassment is likely to blame, and I have always thought that doing things right will prevent it. I see it in other parts of my life: discomfort with public speaking in front of groups of my peers is the one that comes to mind first. I have worked over the past few years to face this down. Back when I still owned my business, I took part in a marketing group of about 20 of my peers that required a brief weekly stand-up synopsis of my business and also a lengthy presentation a few times per year. I also volunteer as an instructor for firearms education and safety, in front of a class of 15-25 students. These have helped tremendously, putting me in positions where I have to confront my insecurities related to public embarasment or criticism; bringing my perfectionism into the light of day. It is important to face emotional walls by repeatedly trying to scale them. The walls become smaller and easier to hurdle by continually meeting them head-on. But how do I transition to doing the same for trading? Unlike acting as an instructor where I make a commitment that I cannot dodge, trading is just me and the computer with nothing other than personal willpower to make me face the challenge. If I run from a commitment that involves other people, the embarassment or criticism is greater than that which comes from the actual public speaking. That same sort of motivation is not present here alone in my office when facing the markets. And that is why I think learning to trade from home is so incredibly difficult.
Here is the blog post and it is followed by a link to the original at his site.
A Question You Need to Ask
May 31st, 2011 Leave a comment Go to comments
Taking a pre-defined loss is part of the business. Exiting a winning trade and watching it continue to work without you is part of the business. Missing an opportunity is part of the business. Many traders cannot accept these realities of the trading business because they have a need for perfection and a need to be right.
Consider the following: You aren’t sure if you should scale your last unit at your target because you notice that momentum has increased and it looks like it could keep going beyond your target – do you hold it? Flatten at your target?
To know what to do, you need to answer the following questions for yourself. First, which is more painful to you…..exiting at your target and watching it run further? Or not exiting at your target and watching it come back in? You also need to know what your default action is when you experience different types of discomfort. Is that typical response of yours adaptive or is it emotionally reactive? Only you know the answer to this question; and it behooves you to know.
http://www.andrewmenaker.com/a-question-you-need-to-ask/
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Saw it, Liked it, Reposting it here.
Abnornal Returns has a great new piece and I've provided a link here:
http://abnormalreturns.com/there-has-never-been-a-better-time-to-be-an-individual-investor/
In addition, I picked out a paragraph and a half that dovetails nicely with some of the stuff I have been writing about recently. Namely, the emotional/psychological side of trading. Take the time to read the whole blog post by clicking on the link... it's an individual investing macro viewpoint that you won't regret seeing.
"However this example points out the double-edged sword that is today’s markets. Now we do have access to all manner of investment and trading vehicles. However like any tool these vehicles need to be used responsibly. The vast majority of investors should likely take a pass.
The reason is that despite the much technological advancement we have seen in investing our brains are still largely hardwired for an age of scarcity. That is why so many of our innate behavioral biases work against us when investing. That is why we consistently buy high and sell low, i.e. the behavior gap. That is why we often only seek out (and recognize) that information that conforms to our long held beliefs, i.e. confirmation bias. In the end the most difficult hurdle to investment success is not the market environment or the range of investment vehicles, it is us."
http://abnormalreturns.com/there-has-never-been-a-better-time-to-be-an-individual-investor/
In addition, I picked out a paragraph and a half that dovetails nicely with some of the stuff I have been writing about recently. Namely, the emotional/psychological side of trading. Take the time to read the whole blog post by clicking on the link... it's an individual investing macro viewpoint that you won't regret seeing.
"However this example points out the double-edged sword that is today’s markets. Now we do have access to all manner of investment and trading vehicles. However like any tool these vehicles need to be used responsibly. The vast majority of investors should likely take a pass.
The reason is that despite the much technological advancement we have seen in investing our brains are still largely hardwired for an age of scarcity. That is why so many of our innate behavioral biases work against us when investing. That is why we consistently buy high and sell low, i.e. the behavior gap. That is why we often only seek out (and recognize) that information that conforms to our long held beliefs, i.e. confirmation bias. In the end the most difficult hurdle to investment success is not the market environment or the range of investment vehicles, it is us."
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