Gap down and dropped into the 42.00 area, where at 9:41am I covered all 1000 shares of TNA held from yesterday at $42.11. Gain $321.79. My sense was that a reversal was taking place so I got out. Just as well, considering the reversal was real and price then leaped to cover the open gap.
I am still holding my 250 shares of TZA. Markets are down from the gap fill but are showing some strength, sure feels like they don't really want to break. SPY refuses to dip below yesterday's open to fill the gap up that occurred at the start of yesterday's session. As I surmised yesterday, the markets haven't officially rolled over until the buyers are cleared out from yesterday's open. Markets are making that drop now at 10:12 am
10:16 am Exit 250 shares TZA at 37.85; loss $217.35 Yesterday's open gap essentially closed on this market dip, cutting my losses to step back and evaluate. TZA reversing downward from here, at least in the short term.
10:21 Market now dropping again so I may have exited TZA early.
10:22 Market (SPY) bouncing up now off support at 158. Keeps trying to break down through but buyers fighting back. This is a significant area for the S & P. Will it crack and go down today?
10:26 Short term consolidation here in TZA, but it hasn't broken below the 7 ema yet so I wouldn't say it is transitioned to weakness. SPY and QQQ still below their respective 7 ema's as well.
10:32 I have to say that I expected the markets to break down more than this, considering the run they made and the macro data here and abroad. Dow is still up today and SPY still down only .28% .
10:36 SPY holding its 158 support for the 3rd time today out of the last four candles. Buyers are defending that level and as such, SPY consolidates here. 7 EMA still represents resistance however.
10:41 SPY up and now testing resistance but recoiling strongly off it. Looks like sellers are strong there and we are down in the consolidation area that is using 158.10 as a central level.
10:44 TNA trading in what is essentially a 30 cent channel. That's fun to trade, he said facetiously; chop chop chop.
11:02 TNA defending 42 support with intensity, as if traders' lives were at stake. If and when it finally breaks, it should go down with authority. In this market environment though, who knows how far down it will go. Seems like there are buyers galore. Maybe Ben Bernanke is now also the chairman of the PPT?! :-)
11:07 Lower highs on TNA while support holds today; wedge forming nicely and very clearly seen on the 15 min chart.
11:13 So badly I want to get short for a ride down to $41. on TNA. But I am a bit gun-shy of getting short after the way $42. is being defended.
11:17 TNA rising and some volume building. Perhaps a Range Day in the making instead of trend day down? Much like the first three hours on Wednesday, there is a fight going on; close to but not the exact price level. More a battle for direction.
11:29 Good place for scalpers to make some cash off mean reversion here as TNA goes back and forth over the 7 EMA.
Weakness now (11:31) in TNA, might push downward...
11:32 A place to get fooled in a short, expecting breakdown. I've been faked out of my shoes with reversals SO MANY TIMES, including yesterday in TZA. The time to get short for this breakdown was back near the top of the 11:15 or 11:25 candles.
11:37 There's the crack and break!
11:40 Support holding on SPY, which has stopped TNA's drop for now.
11:42 SPY still clinging to 158 support. TNA showing a bit of green, though not convincingly.
12:14 Watching this unfold with no money at work. I'm looking to buy TNA near the 41.40 level, if it gets there.
12:23 Nice doji on the TNA 15 min chart, a reliable sign of a reversal. However, I think long here is premature... I'm fighting the urge to buy. I'm still feeling the 41.40 is an important area, based on the fact that it was close to the resistance level for the wedge 2 days ago (10-12:30 timeframe). It seems like that is a 'neighborhood' that will be defended.
An important question one would ask is why am I not short at this moment, feeling as I do about the current momentum?
1:22 Ahhh, the smell of missed opportunity. TNA is now up to 42 and that shows the problem with trading off specific levels instead of following momentum. I was so focused on the 41.40 that i did not use common reversal signals to go long. I watched, believing that it would break down more... especially around the 12:35 and 12:40 area. I did actually get long at 41.72, but didn't like the fact that I was going against my original idea and got out flat (loss $1.95). Then it promptly went up, reinforcing that my instinct to go long was correct even if it contradicted my preconceived idea. I was in and ready for what would have been a 30 cent trade; up to $75 for 250 shares. The answer: setting a stop and not getting out without it being hit.
To answer my question from just above, this is why I was not short looking for the drop to 41.40... uncertainty but fixated on an idea. It is quite possible that we could see 41.40 later on today, but that was not my original thought and not what was motivating me around noon time. I was inflexible and not attentive to momentum.
1:30 Earlier very strong support, TNA just used 42 as resistance, dropping back from it though not with any vigor.
1:42 Dropped back 12 cents or so from the 42 but holding support at the 7 ema. SPY showing strength off its 7 ema; causing TNA to test the 42 once again. There was so much activity there earlier that I would guess it would take extra effort to move away from this range... expecting some consolidation here.
1:47 Nice push up after busting through 42. Resistance at 42.20 area, with volume spike.
1:58 TNA seems frozen in place at 42.02, more or less.
2:05 42 level holds again.
2:10 Three near dojis in a row on TNA. $42 is a powerful level. I believe this is the Big Rollover Decision here. This is the battlefield.
2:13 I have been wondering for two days why TNA and the markets generally are this high. My bias is down. But I could easily make a case for TNA reaching the 42.50 area today. That's why I'm watching and not trading it!
2:17 Momo is nonexistent. Just guessing.
2:27 Chop and churn.
2:51 More of the same. Going nowhere slowly. Not straying from 42.
Access to a live streaming HOD/LOD scanner would be awesome on days like today. I have so many avenues of advancement yet to travel.
3:04 Volume spike and nice green candle. What is up with this? Something to short scalp back into the channel? Break out?
Over an hour, all but one candle has crossed over the 7 ema.
3:32 Pressing up toward 42.25 now. Looks like buyers were in charge for most of the day. And, it looks like the big noon time doji on the TNA 15 min chart was the reversal indicator that it often is. I was so attached to a price level below it that I didn't trust the common signals. And i gave up gains as a result. Another 10 cents and TNA will be flat for the day. That is the most surprising thing to me. This market is maintaining its strong showing of late. it doesn't seem real that it is, but it is.
4:01 Market closed. I didn't make any moves after my quick buy/sell at 1:09 pm.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Thursday, April 25, 2013
April 25 ($0 )
9:41 Markets up up and away in the early-going. Pendulums swing in one direction.
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9:51 SPY below opening level, Small caps racing ahead; TNA pushing a new hod.
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10:02 Short 750 additional shares TNA at $43.03, bringing my total shares short to 1000; a full posisition. Average price is short at $42.44; TNA could reach 43.40 before reversal. My thoughts from last night were that TNA could pop in the morning but that once a certain level was reached, it would come back. I believe we are at or very near that level, that's why I added size.
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10:43 SPY and QQQ soaring still; vertical leap! TNA not following and remains in consolidation... in the short term, that is a sign that this is nearly played out. Again, I think that TNA could get to 43.40 but not much beyond. Doji at 43.10 suggests that this is an important area and might consolidate here at length.
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10:54 SPY still rising, has not dropped enough to even touch its 7 EMA in over an hour, let alone drop below it. A lot of buying pressure in the overall markets. Market goes up minimally on bad news and soars on good news. mind boggling.
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11:04 SPY still has not slowed its climb enough to touch the 7 ema. Impressive run given how far it has come over the prior days. TNA touched 43.30 in the 11:00 candle.
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11:18 SPY closed below its 7 ema for the first time today but quickly rose back above it, fighting and appearing that it will close above that moving average now. TNA holding in consolidation.
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11:26 The S & P shows no sign of retreat, only rest. So, TNA is consolidating as well and not dropping back. PPT really earning their wages yesterday and today.
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11:36 I really like my price here at 42.44, not to say that price won't climb though. TNA still putting in higher lows so far despite repeatedly bumping into and falling from resistance. And both moving averages are going higher.
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11:44 TNA in an hour and a half consolidation. Looking at the 15 min chart now is as odd as it was yesterday for the final hour and 45 mins at yesterday's close.
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11:50 Showing sign of weakness in TNA. First run of three consecutive red candles since noontime yesterday. SPY flirting with a close below the 17 ema for the first time today. QQQ already closed below 17 ema last candle.
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12:13 This is what passes for a 'breakdown' in TNA after the huge run that it has made; 30 cents? TNA back up and in consolidation channel. Noting that the green candles moving it up are on stronger volume than the ones that took it down. Not a good sign for my trade short term. The question is: Is this pop a retest before coming down?
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12:21 Checking my favorite blogs led me to this, and why perhaps the market is "out of its mind" and detached from what has historically guided it. Sickening, if you are a free-market type like me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
The goal: Squeeze all but the most well-funded shorts out of the market through pure manipulation and not prudent fiscally and monetarily sound policies. Pure artificial con job. Smoke and mirrors. Bullshit. S&P up almost 4% in 6 trading days with Dow Jones components reporting marginal earnings outlooks and European countries in the toilet. wtf? Time to just buy the major indices and then go to the beach for a few years.
-------------------------------
1:18 It has gone without saying because it has been obvious, at least to me. Why am I short and not long during this powerful run up? Good question? Failure to set a stop.
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1:31 TNA has reached my targeted 43.40 area. Problem is, it is not bouncing away from it, it's hanging just under it.
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2:29 SPY pulling back slightly but I won't be convinced until it gets below 158.75 with lower intent. TNA actually making a move below the moving averages, but I won't be convinced until it has dipped below 42.90 on big volume. Moving there only to rest on that level is not compelling, given the behavior of this stock over the past day and a half.
2:44 Some price volatility in TNA during this 2:40 candle. Volume rising, and a potential reversal candle formed; red with long upper wick.
2:46 Price showing red but held up at 43.13 support. Through support by a few pennies but won't break recent low point easily. Testing that low now. 9 ema on the 15 minute chart is tipped downward for the first time since Tuesday. Ok, buyer (s) not letting it drop below the recent lows, even on what is frequently a nice reversal candle. Every dip is aggressively bought. When this ends, and it surely will eventually, there are a LOT of longs who will be taken by surprise.
2:51 Price has again slumped down to test the firmness of 43.15 area support. Trying to break below but buyers keep stepping in... volume light to the downside and price has broken recent lows but another significant short-term support area is at 43.03; not coincidentally where I shorted my 750 shares earlier.
2:54 SPY testing 158.80 support now. Breaking this makes a big difference in how the final hour will go. TNA has dipped below 43.03 but has held the 43.00 so far.
2:56 SPY has dropped to big support at 158.67 and bounced up... TNA not bouncing. Looks like down is the current direction. TNA encounters good support here at 42.90; corresponds witht he SPY support at 158.67. Seems to be holding this area, bouncing with volume.
2:58 TNA red again with 1:10 left in this candle. Badly wants to rise... who's in charge, buyers? Sellers?
3:00 That is a big red candle on SPY. Often indicates reversal. If not and it goes down, that is a bearish sign... all that volume and still heading down.
3:01 TNA stubborn, doesn't want to break 42.89 support. There it goes below the level...
3:04 I don't consider this a rollover until we test and break today's open. Doubtful we get that low today. I say that because we have to get through the buyers at the 42.40 area (see the near doji candle at 9:45) who like me, are aching to get out what has been a difficult day! Fear and greed, baby; fear and greed!
3:09 Looks like 42.73 support for TNA is holding, buyers coming in there and pushing price up 20 cents. New candle now and it is holding... nice amount of volume in this downturn from 2:40 to now.
3:11 TNA testing that 42.73 support again, even after what is often a reversal candle (3:05). This might be it for the downturn as SPY has bumped into support at 158.30 area... lots volume in SPY. QQQ has tested open price and held it, getting a nice bounce from that 69.62 spot.
3:14 SPY and QQQ are in a bounce, showing long tails and some green in this candle. TNA holding though, not convinced yet that the fall is done.
3:15 TNA long tails in two successive red candles, both touching 42.73 support. I really started to get the feeling that it might break... the next intra-day support would have been my breakeven area at 42.43. Ordinarily, I'd try to be long off the support at 42.73.
3:18 TNA aggressively testing the support it just bounced off in two prior candles; just broke through. My guess is it will push down hard but reverse once it gets near my price. Some who got long at the support just above is stopping out and those sales are moving it lower now.
3:20 Bounce off 42.55 but not big bounce. Still showing red even after all this volume. SPY hanging in the 58.45 area.
3:22 My gut tells me SPY wants down to 158.25 before end of day. If so, I should hit my average price.
3:24 TNA still showing red, though SPY just hit 158.27 support without taking TNA down with it; a bad sign for my trade going green today.
3:27 I need serious weakness in the S & P during the final half-hour to take TNA down. Like SPY getting to that 158.20 or test of LOD. Some weakness in TNA now, testing the recent low. 42.55 has plenty of buyers, this level holding for now.
3:30 First green candle after nine red ones in TNA, though nearly a doji so sellers are still battling. My gut tells me we have seen the low of the day. Depends on how much energy TNA can muster as it reaches the 7 ema and tries to get back above it.
3:36 TNA holding just below resistance of 42.73, testing it as it rises now.
3:40 Not excited to carry a full position overnight, might take off half for a loss. Ordinarily I'd think it would break down more tomorrow, but in light of recent days' movement, I have no idea what to expect... ha!
3:44 42.73 holding as support now, for the entire 3:40 candle as it has now changed to 3:45.
3:46 SPY gave us a doji on the 3:40 candle (5 min chart) so this is a level of at least short-term significance, if not longer.
3:50 TNA testing and cracking down below support with some volume behind it. Maybe we'll hit my price? Unlikely, but never know.
4:00 I'm holding all. Taking the risk. I had a chance to take off half my TNA with a $65 loss during the last candle but it is not enough of a breakdown yet, based on the big run the markets have had. This is a tough time of the year to hold overnight, given the market surprises that come with earnings announcements, but my sense is it will open gap-down tomorrow. I always suspect the charts lead the news...
--------------------------------------
Wow, rough day for the Options traders with the CBOE an absolute mess all day. My goodness...
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9:51 SPY below opening level, Small caps racing ahead; TNA pushing a new hod.
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10:02 Short 750 additional shares TNA at $43.03, bringing my total shares short to 1000; a full posisition. Average price is short at $42.44; TNA could reach 43.40 before reversal. My thoughts from last night were that TNA could pop in the morning but that once a certain level was reached, it would come back. I believe we are at or very near that level, that's why I added size.
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10:43 SPY and QQQ soaring still; vertical leap! TNA not following and remains in consolidation... in the short term, that is a sign that this is nearly played out. Again, I think that TNA could get to 43.40 but not much beyond. Doji at 43.10 suggests that this is an important area and might consolidate here at length.
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10:54 SPY still rising, has not dropped enough to even touch its 7 EMA in over an hour, let alone drop below it. A lot of buying pressure in the overall markets. Market goes up minimally on bad news and soars on good news. mind boggling.
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11:04 SPY still has not slowed its climb enough to touch the 7 ema. Impressive run given how far it has come over the prior days. TNA touched 43.30 in the 11:00 candle.
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11:18 SPY closed below its 7 ema for the first time today but quickly rose back above it, fighting and appearing that it will close above that moving average now. TNA holding in consolidation.
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11:26 The S & P shows no sign of retreat, only rest. So, TNA is consolidating as well and not dropping back. PPT really earning their wages yesterday and today.
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11:36 I really like my price here at 42.44, not to say that price won't climb though. TNA still putting in higher lows so far despite repeatedly bumping into and falling from resistance. And both moving averages are going higher.
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11:44 TNA in an hour and a half consolidation. Looking at the 15 min chart now is as odd as it was yesterday for the final hour and 45 mins at yesterday's close.
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11:50 Showing sign of weakness in TNA. First run of three consecutive red candles since noontime yesterday. SPY flirting with a close below the 17 ema for the first time today. QQQ already closed below 17 ema last candle.
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12:13 This is what passes for a 'breakdown' in TNA after the huge run that it has made; 30 cents? TNA back up and in consolidation channel. Noting that the green candles moving it up are on stronger volume than the ones that took it down. Not a good sign for my trade short term. The question is: Is this pop a retest before coming down?
-------------------------------
12:21 Checking my favorite blogs led me to this, and why perhaps the market is "out of its mind" and detached from what has historically guided it. Sickening, if you are a free-market type like me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
The goal: Squeeze all but the most well-funded shorts out of the market through pure manipulation and not prudent fiscally and monetarily sound policies. Pure artificial con job. Smoke and mirrors. Bullshit. S&P up almost 4% in 6 trading days with Dow Jones components reporting marginal earnings outlooks and European countries in the toilet. wtf? Time to just buy the major indices and then go to the beach for a few years.
-------------------------------
1:18 It has gone without saying because it has been obvious, at least to me. Why am I short and not long during this powerful run up? Good question? Failure to set a stop.
-------------------------------
1:31 TNA has reached my targeted 43.40 area. Problem is, it is not bouncing away from it, it's hanging just under it.
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2:29 SPY pulling back slightly but I won't be convinced until it gets below 158.75 with lower intent. TNA actually making a move below the moving averages, but I won't be convinced until it has dipped below 42.90 on big volume. Moving there only to rest on that level is not compelling, given the behavior of this stock over the past day and a half.
2:44 Some price volatility in TNA during this 2:40 candle. Volume rising, and a potential reversal candle formed; red with long upper wick.
2:46 Price showing red but held up at 43.13 support. Through support by a few pennies but won't break recent low point easily. Testing that low now. 9 ema on the 15 minute chart is tipped downward for the first time since Tuesday. Ok, buyer (s) not letting it drop below the recent lows, even on what is frequently a nice reversal candle. Every dip is aggressively bought. When this ends, and it surely will eventually, there are a LOT of longs who will be taken by surprise.
2:51 Price has again slumped down to test the firmness of 43.15 area support. Trying to break below but buyers keep stepping in... volume light to the downside and price has broken recent lows but another significant short-term support area is at 43.03; not coincidentally where I shorted my 750 shares earlier.
2:54 SPY testing 158.80 support now. Breaking this makes a big difference in how the final hour will go. TNA has dipped below 43.03 but has held the 43.00 so far.
2:56 SPY has dropped to big support at 158.67 and bounced up... TNA not bouncing. Looks like down is the current direction. TNA encounters good support here at 42.90; corresponds witht he SPY support at 158.67. Seems to be holding this area, bouncing with volume.
2:58 TNA red again with 1:10 left in this candle. Badly wants to rise... who's in charge, buyers? Sellers?
3:00 That is a big red candle on SPY. Often indicates reversal. If not and it goes down, that is a bearish sign... all that volume and still heading down.
3:01 TNA stubborn, doesn't want to break 42.89 support. There it goes below the level...
3:04 I don't consider this a rollover until we test and break today's open. Doubtful we get that low today. I say that because we have to get through the buyers at the 42.40 area (see the near doji candle at 9:45) who like me, are aching to get out what has been a difficult day! Fear and greed, baby; fear and greed!
3:09 Looks like 42.73 support for TNA is holding, buyers coming in there and pushing price up 20 cents. New candle now and it is holding... nice amount of volume in this downturn from 2:40 to now.
3:11 TNA testing that 42.73 support again, even after what is often a reversal candle (3:05). This might be it for the downturn as SPY has bumped into support at 158.30 area... lots volume in SPY. QQQ has tested open price and held it, getting a nice bounce from that 69.62 spot.
3:14 SPY and QQQ are in a bounce, showing long tails and some green in this candle. TNA holding though, not convinced yet that the fall is done.
3:15 TNA long tails in two successive red candles, both touching 42.73 support. I really started to get the feeling that it might break... the next intra-day support would have been my breakeven area at 42.43. Ordinarily, I'd try to be long off the support at 42.73.
3:18 TNA aggressively testing the support it just bounced off in two prior candles; just broke through. My guess is it will push down hard but reverse once it gets near my price. Some who got long at the support just above is stopping out and those sales are moving it lower now.
3:20 Bounce off 42.55 but not big bounce. Still showing red even after all this volume. SPY hanging in the 58.45 area.
3:22 My gut tells me SPY wants down to 158.25 before end of day. If so, I should hit my average price.
3:24 TNA still showing red, though SPY just hit 158.27 support without taking TNA down with it; a bad sign for my trade going green today.
3:27 I need serious weakness in the S & P during the final half-hour to take TNA down. Like SPY getting to that 158.20 or test of LOD. Some weakness in TNA now, testing the recent low. 42.55 has plenty of buyers, this level holding for now.
3:30 First green candle after nine red ones in TNA, though nearly a doji so sellers are still battling. My gut tells me we have seen the low of the day. Depends on how much energy TNA can muster as it reaches the 7 ema and tries to get back above it.
3:36 TNA holding just below resistance of 42.73, testing it as it rises now.
3:40 Not excited to carry a full position overnight, might take off half for a loss. Ordinarily I'd think it would break down more tomorrow, but in light of recent days' movement, I have no idea what to expect... ha!
3:44 42.73 holding as support now, for the entire 3:40 candle as it has now changed to 3:45.
3:46 SPY gave us a doji on the 3:40 candle (5 min chart) so this is a level of at least short-term significance, if not longer.
3:50 TNA testing and cracking down below support with some volume behind it. Maybe we'll hit my price? Unlikely, but never know.
4:00 I'm holding all. Taking the risk. I had a chance to take off half my TNA with a $65 loss during the last candle but it is not enough of a breakdown yet, based on the big run the markets have had. This is a tough time of the year to hold overnight, given the market surprises that come with earnings announcements, but my sense is it will open gap-down tomorrow. I always suspect the charts lead the news...
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Wow, rough day for the Options traders with the CBOE an absolute mess all day. My goodness...
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
April 24 ( $0 )
What the **** is holding this market up? Tons of bad economic news, here and abroad... and it keeps going up.
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12:35 The way the small caps keep rising is the biggest shock to me... based on the chart and my multi-year study of TNA, they should be pulled back by now. And the major indices, Dow and S&P? My goodness! Is this the "Late Money" from the average Jane and Joe on the street, who follows nothing but the 'markets at all-time highs"headlines, getting money to work in her/his retirement account? Who is buying?
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1:51 More double-doji's on the 5-min TNA chart. This is weird.
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2:05 Looks like TNA might try for the 42.10 area, if it can successfully break through 41.70 area resistance.
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2:13 Volume coming into TNA here at 41.75 resistance. Up? Down? Ordinarily I'd vote down from here, but these markets are outside my understanding.
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2:46 This market just sucks. every time price breaks down where it normally would, there's an instant buy executed. On the other hand, a market is a market and traders must adapt.
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3:14 QQQ and SPY dropping and TNA staying up. I don't get it.
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3:25 SPY 3:20 candle is red with big volume. TNA moves about 5 cents down. There must be some very big players wanting the small caps higher. When SPY moves up by a few cents, TNA jumps out of its skin higher.
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3:58 SPY has dropped over 65% from its high today and TNA is still within 25 cents of its hod. ???
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Market closed now... This is definitely a learning experience for me over the past couple days. Classes of stocks can decouple, that's for sure. Small caps are not trading with the major indices, they're roaring and seem overdue for a pullback. But the market will decide when that occurs...
I remain short TNA at $40.65, long TZA at $38.71. Based on looking at the chart, I would guess this has to break back down for a retest of the $40.50 area of TNA and as I was thinking yesterday, at least fill yesterday's opening gap at $39.60.
No exits today.
=========================================
ADDENDUM:
What the heck happened to TNA closing volume? There was none!
TNA volume today was 6,420,000 shares, the lowest since the slightly higher total of April 11th; a day with a doji-top and short-term reversal.
Today was the lowest volume day since the 5,064,400 December 24th, 2012, just before the huge January to mid-March ramp up.
Today was the second lowest volume day since December 29, 2009 had 4,915,000 shares traded!!!
Today was the fourth lowest volume trading day in TNA since December, 26, 2008 in the depths of the market crash.
TNA close to a $42.20 s/r area. My gut is telling me it might ramp a bit tomorrow (?) then go down... unless it just goes down without the ceremony of moving up. Always prepared for being wrong, though.
=========================================
At 3:40 pm today, I moved mutual fund stock market assets to money market (this is a non-trade account). It is the first time I've touched that money since the deep crash of 2008-2009.
Something is up with these markets and my uncertainty bothers me. They could bust out and make a run up from here, who knows. But this is a time and chart area where I don't want to be guessing.
=========================================
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12:35 The way the small caps keep rising is the biggest shock to me... based on the chart and my multi-year study of TNA, they should be pulled back by now. And the major indices, Dow and S&P? My goodness! Is this the "Late Money" from the average Jane and Joe on the street, who follows nothing but the 'markets at all-time highs"headlines, getting money to work in her/his retirement account? Who is buying?
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1:51 More double-doji's on the 5-min TNA chart. This is weird.
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2:05 Looks like TNA might try for the 42.10 area, if it can successfully break through 41.70 area resistance.
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2:13 Volume coming into TNA here at 41.75 resistance. Up? Down? Ordinarily I'd vote down from here, but these markets are outside my understanding.
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2:46 This market just sucks. every time price breaks down where it normally would, there's an instant buy executed. On the other hand, a market is a market and traders must adapt.
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3:14 QQQ and SPY dropping and TNA staying up. I don't get it.
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3:25 SPY 3:20 candle is red with big volume. TNA moves about 5 cents down. There must be some very big players wanting the small caps higher. When SPY moves up by a few cents, TNA jumps out of its skin higher.
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3:58 SPY has dropped over 65% from its high today and TNA is still within 25 cents of its hod. ???
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Market closed now... This is definitely a learning experience for me over the past couple days. Classes of stocks can decouple, that's for sure. Small caps are not trading with the major indices, they're roaring and seem overdue for a pullback. But the market will decide when that occurs...
I remain short TNA at $40.65, long TZA at $38.71. Based on looking at the chart, I would guess this has to break back down for a retest of the $40.50 area of TNA and as I was thinking yesterday, at least fill yesterday's opening gap at $39.60.
No exits today.
=========================================
ADDENDUM:
What the heck happened to TNA closing volume? There was none!
TNA volume today was 6,420,000 shares, the lowest since the slightly higher total of April 11th; a day with a doji-top and short-term reversal.
Today was the lowest volume day since the 5,064,400 December 24th, 2012, just before the huge January to mid-March ramp up.
Today was the second lowest volume day since December 29, 2009 had 4,915,000 shares traded!!!
Today was the fourth lowest volume trading day in TNA since December, 26, 2008 in the depths of the market crash.
TNA close to a $42.20 s/r area. My gut is telling me it might ramp a bit tomorrow (?) then go down... unless it just goes down without the ceremony of moving up. Always prepared for being wrong, though.
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At 3:40 pm today, I moved mutual fund stock market assets to money market (this is a non-trade account). It is the first time I've touched that money since the deep crash of 2008-2009.
Something is up with these markets and my uncertainty bothers me. They could bust out and make a run up from here, who knows. But this is a time and chart area where I don't want to be guessing.
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