9:41 Markets up up and away in the early-going. Pendulums swing in one direction.
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9:51 SPY below opening level, Small caps racing ahead; TNA pushing a new hod.
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10:02 Short 750 additional shares TNA at $43.03, bringing my total shares short to 1000; a full posisition. Average price is short at $42.44; TNA could reach 43.40 before reversal. My thoughts from last night were that TNA could pop in the morning but that once a certain level was reached, it would come back. I believe we are at or very near that level, that's why I added size.
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10:43 SPY and QQQ soaring still; vertical leap! TNA not following and remains in consolidation... in the short term, that is a sign that this is nearly played out. Again, I think that TNA could get to 43.40 but not much beyond. Doji at 43.10 suggests that this is an important area and might consolidate here at length.
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10:54 SPY still rising, has not dropped enough to even touch its 7 EMA in over an hour, let alone drop below it. A lot of buying pressure in the overall markets. Market goes up minimally on bad news and soars on good news. mind boggling.
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11:04 SPY still has not slowed its climb enough to touch the 7 ema. Impressive run given how far it has come over the prior days. TNA touched 43.30 in the 11:00 candle.
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11:18 SPY closed below its 7 ema for the first time today but quickly rose back above it, fighting and appearing that it will close above that moving average now. TNA holding in consolidation.
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11:26 The S & P shows no sign of retreat, only rest. So, TNA is consolidating as well and not dropping back. PPT really earning their wages yesterday and today.
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11:36 I really like my price here at 42.44, not to say that price won't climb though. TNA still putting in higher lows so far despite repeatedly bumping into and falling from resistance. And both moving averages are going higher.
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11:44 TNA in an hour and a half consolidation. Looking at the 15 min chart now is as odd as it was yesterday for the final hour and 45 mins at yesterday's close.
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11:50 Showing sign of weakness in TNA. First run of three consecutive red candles since noontime yesterday. SPY flirting with a close below the 17 ema for the first time today. QQQ already closed below 17 ema last candle.
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12:13 This is what passes for a 'breakdown' in TNA after the huge run that it has made; 30 cents? TNA back up and in consolidation channel. Noting that the green candles moving it up are on stronger volume than the ones that took it down. Not a good sign for my trade short term. The question is: Is this pop a retest before coming down?
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12:21 Checking my favorite blogs led me to this, and why perhaps the market is "out of its mind" and detached from what has historically guided it. Sickening, if you are a free-market type like me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
The goal: Squeeze all but the most well-funded shorts out of the market through pure manipulation and not prudent fiscally and monetarily sound policies. Pure artificial con job. Smoke and mirrors. Bullshit. S&P up almost 4% in 6 trading days with Dow Jones components reporting marginal earnings outlooks and European countries in the toilet. wtf? Time to just buy the major indices and then go to the beach for a few years.
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1:18 It has gone without saying because it has been obvious, at least to me. Why am I short and not long during this powerful run up? Good question? Failure to set a stop.
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1:31 TNA has reached my targeted 43.40 area. Problem is, it is not bouncing away from it, it's hanging just under it.
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2:29 SPY pulling back slightly but I won't be convinced until it gets below 158.75 with lower intent. TNA actually making a move below the moving averages, but I won't be convinced until it has dipped below 42.90 on big volume. Moving there only to rest on that level is not compelling, given the behavior of this stock over the past day and a half.
2:44 Some price volatility in TNA during this 2:40 candle. Volume rising, and a potential reversal candle formed; red with long upper wick.
2:46 Price showing red but held up at 43.13 support. Through support by a few pennies but won't break recent low point easily. Testing that low now. 9 ema on the 15 minute chart is tipped downward for the first time since Tuesday. Ok, buyer (s) not letting it drop below the recent lows, even on what is frequently a nice reversal candle. Every dip is aggressively bought. When this ends, and it surely will eventually, there are a LOT of longs who will be taken by surprise.
2:51 Price has again slumped down to test the firmness of 43.15 area support. Trying to break below but buyers keep stepping in... volume light to the downside and price has broken recent lows but another significant short-term support area is at 43.03; not coincidentally where I shorted my 750 shares earlier.
2:54 SPY testing 158.80 support now. Breaking this makes a big difference in how the final hour will go. TNA has dipped below 43.03 but has held the 43.00 so far.
2:56 SPY has dropped to big support at 158.67 and bounced up... TNA not bouncing. Looks like down is the current direction. TNA encounters good support here at 42.90; corresponds witht he SPY support at 158.67. Seems to be holding this area, bouncing with volume.
2:58 TNA red again with 1:10 left in this candle. Badly wants to rise... who's in charge, buyers? Sellers?
3:00 That is a big red candle on SPY. Often indicates reversal. If not and it goes down, that is a bearish sign... all that volume and still heading down.
3:01 TNA stubborn, doesn't want to break 42.89 support. There it goes below the level...
3:04 I don't consider this a rollover until we test and break today's open. Doubtful we get that low today. I say that because we have to get through the buyers at the 42.40 area (see the near doji candle at 9:45) who like me, are aching to get out what has been a difficult day! Fear and greed, baby; fear and greed!
3:09 Looks like 42.73 support for TNA is holding, buyers coming in there and pushing price up 20 cents. New candle now and it is holding... nice amount of volume in this downturn from 2:40 to now.
3:11 TNA testing that 42.73 support again, even after what is often a reversal candle (3:05). This might be it for the downturn as SPY has bumped into support at 158.30 area... lots volume in SPY. QQQ has tested open price and held it, getting a nice bounce from that 69.62 spot.
3:14 SPY and QQQ are in a bounce, showing long tails and some green in this candle. TNA holding though, not convinced yet that the fall is done.
3:15 TNA long tails in two successive red candles, both touching 42.73 support. I really started to get the feeling that it might break... the next intra-day support would have been my breakeven area at 42.43. Ordinarily, I'd try to be long off the support at 42.73.
3:18 TNA aggressively testing the support it just bounced off in two prior candles; just broke through. My guess is it will push down hard but reverse once it gets near my price. Some who got long at the support just above is stopping out and those sales are moving it lower now.
3:20 Bounce off 42.55 but not big bounce. Still showing red even after all this volume. SPY hanging in the 58.45 area.
3:22 My gut tells me SPY wants down to 158.25 before end of day. If so, I should hit my average price.
3:24 TNA still showing red, though SPY just hit 158.27 support without taking TNA down with it; a bad sign for my trade going green today.
3:27 I need serious weakness in the S & P during the final half-hour to take TNA down. Like SPY getting to that 158.20 or test of LOD. Some weakness in TNA now, testing the recent low. 42.55 has plenty of buyers, this level holding for now.
3:30 First green candle after nine red ones in TNA, though nearly a doji so sellers are still battling. My gut tells me we have seen the low of the day. Depends on how much energy TNA can muster as it reaches the 7 ema and tries to get back above it.
3:36 TNA holding just below resistance of 42.73, testing it as it rises now.
3:40 Not excited to carry a full position overnight, might take off half for a loss. Ordinarily I'd think it would break down more tomorrow, but in light of recent days' movement, I have no idea what to expect... ha!
3:44 42.73 holding as support now, for the entire 3:40 candle as it has now changed to 3:45.
3:46 SPY gave us a doji on the 3:40 candle (5 min chart) so this is a level of at least short-term significance, if not longer.
3:50 TNA testing and cracking down below support with some volume behind it. Maybe we'll hit my price? Unlikely, but never know.
4:00 I'm holding all. Taking the risk. I had a chance to take off half my TNA with a $65 loss during the last candle but it is not enough of a breakdown yet, based on the big run the markets have had. This is a tough time of the year to hold overnight, given the market surprises that come with earnings announcements, but my sense is it will open gap-down tomorrow. I always suspect the charts lead the news...
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Wow, rough day for the Options traders with the CBOE an absolute mess all day. My goodness...
