I've been busy this morning with TNA and TZA, my favorite trading vehicles. Five trades and a gain thus far of $53.31. Three Gains $37.80, $45.10, $74.96. One loss of $104.50. One breakeven.
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Price dipped at the open and then rallied into the 9:45am candle. I went long on that ride up and got caught as it fell steeply into 10:00am... that was the $104.50 loss. The breakeven was a TZA trade that I used as a hedge. Gains were a long as the rally from the 10:00am bottom up to the 38.70 area, then a short at the top of the 10:55am. I am particularly disappointed in my execution on that one as I got out far too early after a perfect entry at a textbook reversal point; that move down is still in the works as I write this at 11:30am.
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Still shopping for high probability entries.
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11:55am: I had to step away from the computer for 20-25 mins and missed the downtrend that is still testing its lows. Darn...
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Yesterday I thought a recovery and move up was in the bag, so to speak. However, my prediction must wait... the S & P is struggling to stay above its 50 day moving average., just completing its 4th try at breaking down in the past two days. The most recent one 15 mins ago was a higher low so that is a bullish sign (for now). Up or down, I only try to"Rent" stocks now, I don't "Own" them in the traditional sense.
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12:45pm A lot of long lower wicks on the TNA 15 min chart... traders are buying the dips. A move up seems highly likely.
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1:42pm Family member stopped in unexpectedly and took me away from the computer for nearly an hour. Just sitting back down now to get my bearings. To this point it appears that 38.00 is TNA's center point of consolidation since late morning yesterday and around which it is coiling presently.
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1:53pm QQQ's are threatening their recent lows from April 5th. If they break, it might drag everything else down, depending on relative weakness. TNA has broken down below todays lower trend line, but hanging just below it.
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2:00pm Two o'clock time frame, a part of the day when markets often make trade-able moves. TNA sitting on a S/R line and just made doji for the 1:55 candle.
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3:16 I sat patiently and watched TNA drop and drop, measuring it to see when momo had stopped; feeling for the end of the drop. (Hotshot trader that I am not, I wasn't in it as it dropped) Then it felt right and I went long 250 shares of TNA $37.22 at 2:58. It retested my mettle in the next two candles as it came down and tested the low tick. I was in 4 cents from the bottom. And I sat on it and waited for it to rise. And rise it did, ending at $37 62. I exited a bit before that however; $37.48 at 3:15pm. Gain $62.98
Fairly well executed and I don't mind patting myself on the back because I frequently deride my performance, especially lately. I was definitely in a zone on this one start to exit. Truly, I'm not sure I've ever been that focused in the years I've been trying to learn this art. I took the first half of the eventual move up into the close, but I got nearly all of the first leg before the 3:15 - 3:20 pullback. I was mentally tired and had to visit the bathroom (TMI ?) so I disengaged for the second leg of the move up to 37.75. No matter, with yesterday and today I've recovered my loss from Monday plus $33.
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Thursday, April 18, 2013
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
April 17 (Gain $101.49)
10:03am: Short 250 shares TNA at 39.05, covered all at 38.95. Gain $22.72. Got what I believe is the last of this particular move down. On a larger scale, I think price will sink down to test yesterday's lows $38.45 area.
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10:09 Price kept dropping for another 15 cents and is now inching up. The primary direction of the day is still down and that needs respect until one gets highly trustworthy indications to the contrary.
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10:20 Price dropping nicely albeit without me still in; now at 38.50. Trading is about trusting what you know... eventually I will. Until I do, I'll be scalping pennies off moves I believe, and actually do occur with an acceptable rate of success.
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10:22 Long at 38.50, 250 shares TNA
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11:49 Much has happened in TNA since I went long. And I held my small trade without adding anything to it, a suckers play here. TNA touched its late February bottom price and is up slightly; very high volume in the 11:15am candle. I am making a prediction here... If TNA and the markets in general don't break down substantially from here today, we have put in a bottom of this particular trend down from the April 11 market high. The charts look very favorable for a move back up from here. That's why I'm sitting on this 250 share long trade. If it goes green, I will consider adding to it. I might even be able to convince myself to keep it for a swing trade; I'm that confident of a move in the general markets back up into the consolidation area formed on SPY between $154 area and the $157 area.
Of course, if support breaks, then it is a big move down to follow in TNA because we are right at the important support of $37.
At this time, TNA is roughly 17% down from its most recent highs of $44.73.
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2:40pm: Held TNA and used its inverse, TZA, as a hedge in case TNA decided to dive below support. TNA stayed positive and I Lost $73.62 total for three different insurance trades.
Later shorted TZA to take advantage of the climbing market between 1:35pm and 1:45pm. Short 250 sh TZA at 42.23 and covered all 41.83. Gain $97.60
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TNA popped really well into the 3:15 candle so I exited at the top of that candle. Exit all TNA at 38.59, gain $20.20.
Promptly shorted on that big run-up... Shorted 250 sh TNA at 38.60 and covered all 3 mins later at $38.47 for $29.43 gain.
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3:40pm: Absolutely should have held that last TNA short; has dropped to $38.13 thus far. Left up to 34 cents on the table ($85).
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3:49pm: TNA spiked to 38.47 so I shorted it right there at $38.46 in hopes of it dropping back away from S/R to the mean. It simply hung there into the 3:50 candle, so I covered even (Gain $5.15). From there it moved up a little to 38.53 and basically stayed at S/R into the close.
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Once again, a day of acceptable reads but lackluster execution. A lot of opportunity left behind and a lot of work for a $101.49 total today. If there is anything good about these days, it is that i pay very close attention and learn a lot more than when I am performing well.
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10:09 Price kept dropping for another 15 cents and is now inching up. The primary direction of the day is still down and that needs respect until one gets highly trustworthy indications to the contrary.
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10:20 Price dropping nicely albeit without me still in; now at 38.50. Trading is about trusting what you know... eventually I will. Until I do, I'll be scalping pennies off moves I believe, and actually do occur with an acceptable rate of success.
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10:22 Long at 38.50, 250 shares TNA
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11:49 Much has happened in TNA since I went long. And I held my small trade without adding anything to it, a suckers play here. TNA touched its late February bottom price and is up slightly; very high volume in the 11:15am candle. I am making a prediction here... If TNA and the markets in general don't break down substantially from here today, we have put in a bottom of this particular trend down from the April 11 market high. The charts look very favorable for a move back up from here. That's why I'm sitting on this 250 share long trade. If it goes green, I will consider adding to it. I might even be able to convince myself to keep it for a swing trade; I'm that confident of a move in the general markets back up into the consolidation area formed on SPY between $154 area and the $157 area.
Of course, if support breaks, then it is a big move down to follow in TNA because we are right at the important support of $37.
At this time, TNA is roughly 17% down from its most recent highs of $44.73.
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2:40pm: Held TNA and used its inverse, TZA, as a hedge in case TNA decided to dive below support. TNA stayed positive and I Lost $73.62 total for three different insurance trades.
Later shorted TZA to take advantage of the climbing market between 1:35pm and 1:45pm. Short 250 sh TZA at 42.23 and covered all 41.83. Gain $97.60
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TNA popped really well into the 3:15 candle so I exited at the top of that candle. Exit all TNA at 38.59, gain $20.20.
Promptly shorted on that big run-up... Shorted 250 sh TNA at 38.60 and covered all 3 mins later at $38.47 for $29.43 gain.
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3:40pm: Absolutely should have held that last TNA short; has dropped to $38.13 thus far. Left up to 34 cents on the table ($85).
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3:49pm: TNA spiked to 38.47 so I shorted it right there at $38.46 in hopes of it dropping back away from S/R to the mean. It simply hung there into the 3:50 candle, so I covered even (Gain $5.15). From there it moved up a little to 38.53 and basically stayed at S/R into the close.
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Once again, a day of acceptable reads but lackluster execution. A lot of opportunity left behind and a lot of work for a $101.49 total today. If there is anything good about these days, it is that i pay very close attention and learn a lot more than when I am performing well.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Reverse Head & Shoulder
1:25pm: Sure seems like TNA is well on its way to a classic H & S pattern, though I am not a chart pattern expert and don't know exactly how to get the 'measured move' portion of the pattern from it. TNA just moving above it's mini trendline... some upside to go perhaps as it currently rides tightly to the 7 ema?
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1:34pm: TNA at new HOD by one cent, (40.35) but stalled there. SPY and Q's showing reversal-type 1:30pm candles with elevated volume as they continue oscillating above and below S/R. TNA still in a tight channel at 40.22. No big volume candles shown yet, however. Could be the 11:45 and 11:50am candle volumes are what passes for the end of the run? Not sure...
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1:42pm: TNA showing some volume building and going red... indices showing red and touching their 17 ema's but on virtually no volume. What dynamic at work here, I wonder? A fake move down to generate some liquidity for the ones who want to move it higher? A tired market moving down with little conviction? Around 2:00 - 2:30pm there usually is movement started in the markets, so let us see what is revealed.
I really have to get to my taxes though... so I'm now done narrating the market for my future edification. Maybe a recap at the close.
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4:12pm: TNA zoomed up in the last half-hour of today's session. The 2:00pm typical movement was to the downside, taking it to a re-test of the 39.81 support before trending nicely into the close. It hit and moved through my $40.40 to $40.50 target area. The volume surge hit at 3:35pm to lift it up out of the consolidation area resistance level of 40.27.
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1:34pm: TNA at new HOD by one cent, (40.35) but stalled there. SPY and Q's showing reversal-type 1:30pm candles with elevated volume as they continue oscillating above and below S/R. TNA still in a tight channel at 40.22. No big volume candles shown yet, however. Could be the 11:45 and 11:50am candle volumes are what passes for the end of the run? Not sure...
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1:42pm: TNA showing some volume building and going red... indices showing red and touching their 17 ema's but on virtually no volume. What dynamic at work here, I wonder? A fake move down to generate some liquidity for the ones who want to move it higher? A tired market moving down with little conviction? Around 2:00 - 2:30pm there usually is movement started in the markets, so let us see what is revealed.
I really have to get to my taxes though... so I'm now done narrating the market for my future edification. Maybe a recap at the close.
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4:12pm: TNA zoomed up in the last half-hour of today's session. The 2:00pm typical movement was to the downside, taking it to a re-test of the 39.81 support before trending nicely into the close. It hit and moved through my $40.40 to $40.50 target area. The volume surge hit at 3:35pm to lift it up out of the consolidation area resistance level of 40.27.
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