This market is ridiculous. I have no freaking idea what is making it go up today, yesterday for that matter. It is crawling up, tightly hugging the 7 EMA on SPY, QQQ, and TNA. What or who the hell is pushing this thing up? I see three doji's on the 15 minute TNA chart which is frequently a reversal sign, but up it goes. Doji on the SPY 15 min and no breakdown. Gap-up but no fill.
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I am short 250 shares TNA at $40.69, and waiting...
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12:30pm Still in tight consolidation. I haven't seen TNA do this, to my best recollection, in the 3-4 years I've been watching it. A 3x mover derived of the small caps which are the most volatile of the indices. This is just weird.
The SPY is at what I consider a notable resistance area, and TNA hasn't closed below the 17 EMA since before noon yesterday (except the last two candles of yesterday's session, and then didn't go far below. There must be a lot of juice under this market to make it continue up without any significant pullbacks.
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12:37 Noticed a doji in the 12:30 QQQ 5-minute candle... another common turn signal.
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12:46 I am shocked... QQQ actually dropped to the 17 EMA after the doji. SPY still up and TNA still up. 'd like to know who has the bid under this market. This seems like such an unbelievably ripe spot to short and with size... yet my unfamiliarity with what is going on here keeps me from doing it. Everything tells me this thing is coming down like crazy... yet it grinds up.
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12:49 TNA just closed below 17 EMA for the first candle today and only the third candle in about 8.5 hours of trading. Dropping a bit more now.
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12:54 Lame excuse for a pullback. TNA still holding in the price channel begun around 11:00am today. Just closed the second candle below the 17 EMA, but holding tight to it. This is not a drop one would expect.
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1:14 Well, the dam just broke and we got a pile driver drop. I got out with a Gain of $75.52 as it was moving down. Just as strong a reversal back up, which took me by surprise... I was not in long. Back near where the price broke down, I shorted 750 shares of TNA at $40.78 and now waiting for price to head back down. Still hanging up above the 17 EMA though... this is SO strange! A lot of shorts must have been buying to cover to send it back up like that... although some natural buying could be behind it. It's that I don't know why!
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1:22 Price simply hanging there now at 40.99! As if the 1:05 - 1:10pm timeframe never happened! Huh? What is up with that?
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1:47 Price went down and I scaled out 500 of my 750 shares as price went down. Gains $22.69, $40.18. Kept my remaining 250 shares waiting for the big breakdown, but price is rebounding and headed up... left $56 on the table by not taking my gains on the final portion of shares. Looking for it to come down again. Still positive at 1:50pm... we'll see what happens. The 1:40 pm turn up for TNA happened on very little volume, so it seems odd that it wouldn't drop more. But, maybe all the volume exited in the big flush...?
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2:02 Wow, just learned about why the market tumbled a while ago! A threat at the White House from a hacked Twitter account? What the hell is wrong with people? Wish I had sold all my shares considering that news... it was a one-time headline and not the market going down on it's own. That's why the market seems to be holding up now, using my entry price of 40.78 as resistance.
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2:18 Exit my final 250 shares of TNA at 40.51. Gain $67.72
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4:01 An early small loss of $24.70 figures into today's mix.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Monday, April 22, 2013
Monday April 22 ( Gain $124.88 )
At the computer at the open with Mrs BlueCollar sitting beside me.
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I drew a line on the chart saying, "That's where price is going, short-term." And, it did. I was not short as this move down took place, choosing instead to let the Hotshot Traders trade the opening 15 minutes. Too bad, I had 1.30 per share available to me had I taken the trade. I did however, go long as the price reversed. Long 250 shares TNA at $37.73 at 9:51; two cents off the short-term bottom. Exited all shares just a minute later, safely but too quickly at $37.89. Gain $37.71.
Price now diving again and back to the low of the day (LOD).
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10:55am At 10:11am, I went long again, 250 shares of TNA at $37.44. It dropped a little to $37.23 then moved up, leaving a reversal candle with huge corresponding volume. Good entry. Mrs BCT and I watched price climb to $37.76 in the 10:20 candle... I wanted to get out and take the quick cash there but my wife said, "Hold, hold, you always get out too early." Price began to pullback and I defied her wishes and exited with a $47.66 Gain. Price pulled back some more but never threatened my original entry price. Then it climbed and has kept climbing. Women are so often correct. I'd have a potential gain of $200 instead of less than $50 had I listened to her; price is at $38.20 now and consolidating, 80 cents above my entry. So much opportunity for me but left on the table.
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Right now, my goal isn't to be a perfect, Hotshot Trader. My goal is to be profitable and to pay our monthly bills as I continue to learn. And I'm only three weeks into full time live trading with my official trading account. Excellence will come as long as I properly manage risk.
More money can come two ways: More shares but maintain my 'safe' early exits. Or, maintain my low 'safe' number of shares (250 shares = one-quarter of a 1000 share position) but learn to hold them longer. With a full 1000 share trade, I'd now be up $340... which if annualized over 250 trading days in a year is $85,000 per year before taxes. That's in the top 10% of income earners in the United States.
As months and years go on, I hope to master both. Right now, I'm up over $85 on two successful trades and no losses. I'm miles from perfect, but I'm profitable. I'm also not satisfied with trading this way, which is why I know I'll get better, providing I manage risk well.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
________
12:09 Short 500 shares TNA at 38.83
12:23 covered 250 shares even (Gain .43 cents) I don't like how price is hanging here for almost 15 minutes. Leaving 250 shares to test for the drop I expected before this. Big volume on the indices but not TNA... suspect TNA might jump while indices consolidate.
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12:35 TNA did jump about 20 points but is holding my entry level as an S/R line... for now. I hate being stuck in consolidation. But it's better than being left behind as a stock moves against me. Lets see... TNA is showing relative strength to QQQ and that isn't encouraging. Until they break down, TNA will threaten to break out.
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12:39 pm There's the TNA pop. Darn it.
_________
12:44 pm Holding
_________
12:45 Potential reversal candle on the 5-Min SPY after hitting an s/r level.
_________
1:02pm Indices coming down from the reversal candle, but TNA standing firm... Hmmmm, dislike.
_________
1:11pm On the historical charts, TNA has lagged the SPY in relation to the bounce off SPY's 50 day moving ave the other day. Maybe it wants to make up the ground here? TNA still showing relative strength to the indices.
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1:16pm TNA showing signs of dying. My trade perhaps getting some life. Indices sitting and staying on their 17 ema's. If they crack, I will go positive. My goodness, there is some solid support at this level: 68.60 on the QQQ's, 155.70 on the SPY!
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1:33pm Big volume spike in SPY but not much price change... watching closely for what happens next. No corresponding spike on QQQ or TNA, though TNA is moving up.
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1:37 QQQ rising on dead volume. Smells like a fake popup to me, but who knows...
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1:46 QQQ volume came in big and markets jumped TNA big up candle at 1:40pm.
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1:49 SPY retreating slightly from a double top. TNA down only 10 cents on same move to this point.
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1:52 TNA pulling back from the major s/r area at $39.30. Might crack here as it is now entering the time of day where stocks often exhibit extra movement.
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2:04 More and more, I'm thinking this is a dangerous place to be short... It's just a feeling, but S & P seems to want to move north. It isn't holding to any reversal pattern I recognize.
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2:49pm I hate playing from behind. I am now short 1000 shares of TNA at 39.39.
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3:55pm Took half (500 shares) off at 3:18pm for a $12.81 Loss. Then held my remaining 500 shares. Scaled out 250 shares at $39.33 for $14.57 Gain. Then covered remaining 250 shares at $39.24 at 3:53pm for a Gain $37.32. Good thing I got out there, price has rebounded from that point and is not headed up with 1:30 left in the day.
I have no damn idea what was holding this market up. Plunge protection team at work. Tons of buying in TNA at 39.38. Just look at the chart of SPY between 2:45 and 3:30pm. I mean, what the heck?
Gain of $124.88 for the day.
------------
I drew a line on the chart saying, "That's where price is going, short-term." And, it did. I was not short as this move down took place, choosing instead to let the Hotshot Traders trade the opening 15 minutes. Too bad, I had 1.30 per share available to me had I taken the trade. I did however, go long as the price reversed. Long 250 shares TNA at $37.73 at 9:51; two cents off the short-term bottom. Exited all shares just a minute later, safely but too quickly at $37.89. Gain $37.71.
Price now diving again and back to the low of the day (LOD).
-------------
10:55am At 10:11am, I went long again, 250 shares of TNA at $37.44. It dropped a little to $37.23 then moved up, leaving a reversal candle with huge corresponding volume. Good entry. Mrs BCT and I watched price climb to $37.76 in the 10:20 candle... I wanted to get out and take the quick cash there but my wife said, "Hold, hold, you always get out too early." Price began to pullback and I defied her wishes and exited with a $47.66 Gain. Price pulled back some more but never threatened my original entry price. Then it climbed and has kept climbing. Women are so often correct. I'd have a potential gain of $200 instead of less than $50 had I listened to her; price is at $38.20 now and consolidating, 80 cents above my entry. So much opportunity for me but left on the table.
--------------
Right now, my goal isn't to be a perfect, Hotshot Trader. My goal is to be profitable and to pay our monthly bills as I continue to learn. And I'm only three weeks into full time live trading with my official trading account. Excellence will come as long as I properly manage risk.
More money can come two ways: More shares but maintain my 'safe' early exits. Or, maintain my low 'safe' number of shares (250 shares = one-quarter of a 1000 share position) but learn to hold them longer. With a full 1000 share trade, I'd now be up $340... which if annualized over 250 trading days in a year is $85,000 per year before taxes. That's in the top 10% of income earners in the United States.
As months and years go on, I hope to master both. Right now, I'm up over $85 on two successful trades and no losses. I'm miles from perfect, but I'm profitable. I'm also not satisfied with trading this way, which is why I know I'll get better, providing I manage risk well.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
It ALL hinges on correct risk management.
________
12:09 Short 500 shares TNA at 38.83
12:23 covered 250 shares even (Gain .43 cents) I don't like how price is hanging here for almost 15 minutes. Leaving 250 shares to test for the drop I expected before this. Big volume on the indices but not TNA... suspect TNA might jump while indices consolidate.
________
12:35 TNA did jump about 20 points but is holding my entry level as an S/R line... for now. I hate being stuck in consolidation. But it's better than being left behind as a stock moves against me. Lets see... TNA is showing relative strength to QQQ and that isn't encouraging. Until they break down, TNA will threaten to break out.
_________
12:39 pm There's the TNA pop. Darn it.
_________
12:44 pm Holding
_________
12:45 Potential reversal candle on the 5-Min SPY after hitting an s/r level.
_________
1:02pm Indices coming down from the reversal candle, but TNA standing firm... Hmmmm, dislike.
_________
1:11pm On the historical charts, TNA has lagged the SPY in relation to the bounce off SPY's 50 day moving ave the other day. Maybe it wants to make up the ground here? TNA still showing relative strength to the indices.
_________
1:16pm TNA showing signs of dying. My trade perhaps getting some life. Indices sitting and staying on their 17 ema's. If they crack, I will go positive. My goodness, there is some solid support at this level: 68.60 on the QQQ's, 155.70 on the SPY!
_________
1:33pm Big volume spike in SPY but not much price change... watching closely for what happens next. No corresponding spike on QQQ or TNA, though TNA is moving up.
_________
1:37 QQQ rising on dead volume. Smells like a fake popup to me, but who knows...
_________
1:46 QQQ volume came in big and markets jumped TNA big up candle at 1:40pm.
_________
1:49 SPY retreating slightly from a double top. TNA down only 10 cents on same move to this point.
_________
1:52 TNA pulling back from the major s/r area at $39.30. Might crack here as it is now entering the time of day where stocks often exhibit extra movement.
_________
2:04 More and more, I'm thinking this is a dangerous place to be short... It's just a feeling, but S & P seems to want to move north. It isn't holding to any reversal pattern I recognize.
________
2:49pm I hate playing from behind. I am now short 1000 shares of TNA at 39.39.
________
3:55pm Took half (500 shares) off at 3:18pm for a $12.81 Loss. Then held my remaining 500 shares. Scaled out 250 shares at $39.33 for $14.57 Gain. Then covered remaining 250 shares at $39.24 at 3:53pm for a Gain $37.32. Good thing I got out there, price has rebounded from that point and is not headed up with 1:30 left in the day.
I have no damn idea what was holding this market up. Plunge protection team at work. Tons of buying in TNA at 39.38. Just look at the chart of SPY between 2:45 and 3:30pm. I mean, what the heck?
Gain of $124.88 for the day.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Weekly Gain $256.90
Too many trades this week to fit on a screen shot, so no visual record.
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The week was mostly dominated by my sloppy undisciplined trading on Monday and Tuesday, scrambling to be profitable because I chose to fade moves too soon and then didn't stop them out.
Took a loss on Tuesday and barely squeezed out a gain on Monday; a day in which I should have cleaned up.
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Also playing into this week's trading was a commitment to consistently trade small share amounts until Friday where my final trade of the day was a 1000 share short near the day's price peak and scaling out in 250 share increments as the trend moved down.
Successful/experienced traders recognize when they have asymmetric risk advantage and increase initial size for those trades as well as adding to trades that are working. I have a great deal to learn in this department.
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