March 31st

Well, it was a day of ups and downs; good news and bad news. First, the downs...the bad news: two of the 19 trades (same trade but a double-down made it two) represented a horrible loss of $5.73 per share on SKF !! It was just ugly on so many levels. In reviewing the trade, I noted the following: I went long while neglecting the fact that SKF was pushing down hard on resistance after having already dropped $3.00 per share from the open and $5.75 per share from its early morning highs. That was a key sign that this was to be a down day. Secondly, I noticed in hindsight that the volume activity was not the usual level I look for for a good solid reversal. I've made trades with this volume level before and it usually goes my way. So much of this game is probabilities and this time, I was stung. Thirdly, I doubled down on the trade out of over-confidence. This was the dagger in the heart. I was so sure that I was in a good reversal that I got cocky and added to the trade when the signs pointed to not doing it. So, all the signs were there, but I was not paying attention to details, as I had intended to do from yesterdays post. Very frustrating. But, earlier in the month and in February, I was doing this much more often. The primary lesson is to cut losers short...but it is a double-edged sword! I've bailed on so many trades for losses that ended up successful that I've taught myself to just have guts, stay in, and fight! Well, today I paid for it. Perhaps, In the end, I must suffer a few of these as part of the cost of doing business in this manner I've chosen to trade.
The ups, also known as the good news, are that without the bad trade, I was 13 for 17, a 76% win rate; a $1.52 per share gain. Of that, I was 7 of 9 for a gain of 89 cents per share AFTER the trade from hell. So, that was a good way to finish the day. But. all in all, I'd like to have finished the month on a winning note, but it was not to be. I will re-cap the month on a separate post once I run the tape on it.
13 for 19, a 68% win rate; -$4.19 cents per share loss.