11:12 am : Holding my TNA and TZA trades. This market is so heavily over bought and has run steeply enough that I'll take my chances on this swing trade becoming a profitable one.
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-My prices per share are in the upper third or higher of this trend move, even after today's big pop.
-Because of the opening gap up, TNA is further above its 12-day exponential moving average than at any point since 2011.
-Three out of the last four trading days have been unfilled gaps up.
-We have had two straight gaps up on the weekly charts; both unfilled. One gap up week is unusual and when it does happen, it has historically been filled fairly quickly. Reiterate: we've had two unfilled weekly gaps up in a row.
-The vertical line of the run-up since June is as steep as any in the past couple years.
-And from this morning's post containing information and a chart from ZeroHedge.com: Every time in the past 20 years that the S & P 500 has been this far above its 200-day moving average, it has reversed to a point where price breaks down through the average. Every Time In 20 years.
- This commentary from another post late today at one of my favorite websites, ZeroHedge.com:
"The last 12 days have seen the S&P 500 surge 7.5% - this is the fastest run since the co-ordinated global intervention that started Thanksgiving 2011. The overnight gap open never looked like being tested and volume remained average at best all day (until the 1400ET vert-ramp took us instantaneously above the previous all-time high close - running stops on the way - and pushing volume well 'below' average). Interestingly, the sectors did not enjoy the smash higher that the indices did and all pretty much trod water from open to close (with builders best all day)."
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I took a new swing trade in TZA in the retirement account this morning in the 10:15 am timeframe. Long 750 shares at $26.70. At this time, I intend to hold this one for a while, though that may change at any time. This account is not eligible for margin, so I am severely limited in the shares available to trade, otherwise I would have entered with 2000 shares.
Things are overbought, but that doesn't mean they can't advance more... this is what I'm finding too. This is an unusual move in the Russell 2000 and therefore its etf products. Statistically, it is a good play. In practice it has been a major faux pas on my part. Early is the same as wrong.
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