July 10 ( $ 0 )

Mid day and still holding my TNA and TZA.  market is down slightly and still showing lots of demand on dips.

No shares added or reduced today in the trading account.

More evaluation of TNA:

The vertical distance between the 12-day moving average and the high of the day yesterday on the daily chart is the second largest since November of 2011.  (There were a number of instances of this prior in 2011 because of the deep drop in the overall markets during August that year and the resulting volatility).  The other instance was just two weeks ago on June 24th, just prior to this steep run!  In both of these, November 2011 and two weeks ago, a notable reversal soon followed.

The stochastics still register over 96 on the 0 - 100 scale so far today.

What does this mean put together with my other research notes from my prior blog post?  It means that there is a high liklihood of a winning trade as I have it presently constructed.  Is it a sure-winner?  No way.  Am I nervous about this much money on the line without a stop in place? ... I am.  My concern is that there will be earnings or Federal Reserve news that will cause the markets to soar before the pullback takes place.  I am uneasy because of the large number of shares that were traded between 10:10 and 10:30 am this morning... my concern being that this was buying as the price dropped.  There is not a lot of volume in the move back up since 11:25 am so that is favorable to my trade, I believe.

From the June 24th low of this trend to today's high, my TNA price is exactly at the Fibonacci 23.6 % reversal line, for those who watch Fib lines.

I occasionally watch the CNBC show Fast Money.  I tune out the blah blah blah that fills most of the show but tune in for the trader comments about their own moves.  Joe Terranova stated on last night's show that he had taken off an S&P long trade earlier in the day in anticipation of a pullback today related to an expected negative Chinese data release overnight.  he did say he wouldn't get short here though.  The data was not good as he expected.  The market is pulling back some today but not dramatically as I had hoped.

2:20 pm:   Not happy to see the FED Minutes release result in a market spike.  My unrealized losses are at the highest they've been.  Especially frustrating is the fact that at 11:30 am I could have exited my TZA portion of the trade at break-even.

2:40 pm:    TNA price now down to the center of the daily range... approximately $53.65 and the FED spike has abated.

2:55pm:     Price dropped aggressively to the 53.35 level where buying was equally aggressive, as it has been over the past day.   e.g. 2:45 pm, 12:25 pm, 12:00 pm, 11:00 through 11:25 am, 10:30 am today and  yesterday at 3:50 pm and 11:20 am
This is a critical level that must be broken for my trade to move toward profitability.  I am concerned how this level is providing strong support like $52.31 did on Monday afternoon.  It was a solid base and a springboard for both yesterday's and today's new highs.  I am surely hoping that $53.35 doesn't replicate that pattern.

3:25 pm:    TNA at the highs of the day.  This is not what I expected today, based on my interpretation of multi-day charts.  The odd thing is, the SPY is at the middle of its daily range.  This reminds me of how TNA behaved in relation to the general markets during the March and April/May move up.   It was unusually exuberant to the upside compared to SPY.

3:40 pm:    TNA holding its perch just under the HOD, presumably to make a jump.  My morning optimism has waned greatly, but the TNA and SPY daily charts still say the same things to me.  A pullback is imminent.  In fact, there is a doji on the SPY as I write this at 3:42pm.  It also retreated from $166 resistance earlier in the day.

4:04 pm:    TNA finished the day above both moving averages and in the top one-third of the daily range.  Not at all what I was  expecting.  SPY actually broke out of the doji formation and ended the day slightly green but certainly off its high of the day ( HOD ).


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I did add 2000 shares of TZA to the retirement account trade; 2000 shares at $27.64 in the 9:55 candle timeframe.  This brings my average cost of 3000 total shares to $27.78.
Sold these 3000 shares at $28.02 in the 11:25 am timeframe.  Gain of $960.  Nice entry on these 2000 shares and nearly a perfect exit.  I believe this is my largest single position gain ever.