Ouch

I originally put this on today's post but decided to separate it out.  BlueCollarTrader is as much diary as it is a 'Blog'... it's a web log of my thoughts and activities related to the markets and my interaction with them.  So, here it is:

6:36 pm:    I just got in from working out in the yard and switched on CNBC.  This is bad... I logged in to the brokerage account and find myself down a lot according to the futures... they're up 11 points in after hours.  It appears I've horribly miscalculated and it has put me down over $4,000 as of right now.  That really hurts... this is what I was thinking could happen but the odds were against it according to the charts.  But, as I wrote earlier, world events and The Federal Reserve were the wild cards.  And one of those cards has been played and has stung me.  $4,000 is about 3% of my account so it isn't a crushing blow if I take that sort of loss.  But, in contrast with my gains, it is a lot.  And the fact that I could REALLY use the money now.  In fact, we need trading to start paying us... providing an income.  And this is a long way from paying us.  In that context, it hurts a lot.  

So... on the bright side, I had a very good trade in the retirement account today. Nearly a $1000 gain on one trend move.  This is perhaps the worst part of this... I have the skills, the bankroll, and the will to be profitable.  What I don't have is the consistent SELF-DISCIPLINE to make those gains on a daily basis.  If I did, my current unrealized losses would represent a few days worth of winnings.  

I still believe that the charts indicate a pullback... but with Bernanke's 'dove-ish' comments, the markets are going to sail and if I sell, I'll be down thousands of dollars.  And the couple of times I've bailed out by "Throwing in the Towel," two or three days later the stock reverses and I would have been back to even or have made nice gains had I held.  

Do I have faith in my reading of the charts?  or, do I just "Throw in the Towel" and take a big loss in fear of even greater losses?  

I am truly shocked by this move, but when the TNA didn't break down today, my gut was telling me that something was not right.  But, I stuck to my thesis.  And here I am...