"A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits."

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

July 9 ( $0 )

Down more as the markets climbed and TNA followed.  Sure that this extended run was going to break so I added to my TZA long trade.  Bought 1000 TZA at $27.79 and 1000 at $27.98.  Digging a hole to possibly drown in but my review of daily charts finds that the odds of a breakdown are increasing a great deal.  Not today however...
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Also took long trade in TZA in the retirement account and am holding it overnight; 1000 shares at $27.78

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More TNA chart research:

This 8-day run has one of the steepest climbs in the past few years; meaning very little pullback.

Two consecutive days of gap ups without filling.

Stochastic Oscillator on the daily historical chart using the 0 - 100 scale was over 98 in the pre-market and was at 96- 97 all day.  Only twice since 2010 has TNA not resulted in a downturn allowing for a winner within 90 days when that level was reached.  Most downturns gave opportunities for winners within two to four weeks.

Weekly charts shows two consecutive weeks of gap ups without filling.  I looked back a few years at the weeklies and discovered that two consecutive weeks gapping up hasn't happened.  And of the SINGLE weekly gap-ups that did happen, all but one have filled; including gaps in both up and down trends.  The run up since June 24th is very rare in terms of raw momentum.

If Monday's daily chart gap-up is filled and I choose to hold my current position until then, I'll have a decent net gain from TNA and TZA.

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