Feb 27th

Well, it was another day with much to do other than follow the market. I was on for about 45 minutes, roughly 11:30 to 12:15. The first thing I noticed was that IB had no shares to short of my favorite trading vehicle, the SKF! This was a first for me and I still don't know if it was some sort og glitch or not. The ETF has so much liquidity that it seems unreal that no shorting was possible. Anyway, I was looking at the SRS, GS, and UYG also. GS seemed to be moving enough to give a good chance at gains but I favor the SKF and decided to focus on it although from the long side only.

I went long at 168.25 and picked up 39.5 cents. I had been watching for a continuation move from the prior two candles (1-min) to confirm the reversal of the down leg between 11:57 and 12:01pm. While long, volume was shrinking so I knew this brief covering rally I was a part of was ending. I decided to clear out with the very modest 39.5 cent gain in anticipation of another drop. That drop soon materialized because the very next candle was a $1.62 move down.

Like yesteday, I'll take my one trade gain and prepare for my day-job duties; this one an appointment at 2:00pm.

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1 for 1, 100%. Gain of 1.23 per share.

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February Recap - Added on May 8th, to bring the whole blog into the same format:

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74 for 108 in February, a 68.5% success rate.

(Approximately! Two bad days on the 24th and 25th didn't list any trades out of frustration so I haven't done the research in IB Statements to determine the actual activity. I'll count the losses for now and not the individual trade activity.)

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Monthly Loss of -$6.19 per share.

Days traded: 11

Days with a gain: 8; 72.7% success rate.

Days with a loss: 3; 27.3%. three losing days really killed me, -2.53, -8.00, and -4.50 per share

Feb 26th

This was a quick day for me trading. I watched the SKF during pre-mkt, saw the move down in the 9:33 am candle (on a 1-min timeframe) and shorted 1000 shares at 151.46once I thought it would soundly crack the $151.50 area. Boom, there was the breakdown and I rode through the candle and into the next one as SKF collapsed. I covered at 150.23 for a $1.23 gain per share. I forced myself to sit through the inter-candle chop... I really wanted to bail, truly had the feeling that I should cover when the wick rolled up to the $152.50 range but I bit the bullet, trusted my gut that this was a breakdown in the making and rode it. Now, I still think I got out too early. I covered into the 9:34 am candle at $150.23 but the price dropped fully to about $149. So, that "get out, get out" with short gain mentality is still in my head. Also, the reversal was right around the corner and would have made a nice long play starting with the 9:35 candle (1-min time) through the 9:39 candle if you could have sat still during the 9:38 red profit-taking candle. On a more big-picture view, long at the 9:35 reversal upward would have yielded a stronger gain if you could hold into the 9:49 am candle. It would have taken some fortitude though to sit through the 9:40-9:48 candles... that looks like an uncomfortable waiting period. As I write this, SKF is in the 10:01 candle and is tanking big time. 9:57 -10:01 candles...what a solid move down- 5 straight red candles on a 1-min timeframe!
I'm done and am watching, however! After the past two days, I'm going to take my $1.23 and run. I'm going to try to post today's screen shot onto the blog (thanks to Yngvai's hints on how to do it). We'll see how this goes. Plus, I've got a lot of tax stuff to do today and then volunteer teaching tonight to prep for.
Good luck all.
Green line on the chart indicates "go," my entry point short. Red is "stop," my point of exit.
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1 for 1; 100% winners. Gain of +1.23 per share.

Feb 25th - Wednesday

Well, more of the same from yesterday, although things didn't get so out of control before I shut it down for the day. Lots of nice moves in the SKF to play today but I again chose to "buy and sell" so much that I was down about $4.50 per share on a leg down that turned out to be all red candles!! That is really frustrating...knowing all you had to do is short, hold, then sell for a substantial gain. The hard part to take is that I called this particular move, waited for it to break support, then shorted it. I made a quick gain and SOLD IT. When the move kept on going, I tried to get more of it but it would shake me out for a dollar per share loss on some intra-candle action, then continue down even more!
I seem to recognize some of the real opportunities... I've studied tech analysis enough to identify them. I need to think about why I cannot stick with my winners, why I can't ride the MOMO.
It's back to the drawing board. I reset my practice account even though I had much more fake $ reamaining. I want a clean start. The trading from now on will be focusing on trying to find a few moves based on sound technicals, sticking with them, and really trying to identify the real changes in direction... not just the little back and forth "noise" that goes on inside each 5-minute candle timeframe.
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unknown trades; loss of -$4.50 per share

Feb 24th - Tuesday

Well. What a horrible day this was. One thing is abundantly clear. I struggle with days where there is strong movement in one direction. The big drop in the SKF corresponding with the nice move up of the markets just punished me. It happened once in January, happened yesterday before the big drop bailed me out, and then today. I usually have had good luck trading the probablilities of reversals after big moves. Today, I would play a reversal, it would fake me out, and the momo would continue... with extreme prejudice. The back and forth wasn't here... it was biased downward and it took a toll on my practice account. Again, focusing on the trees and not the forest, I would scalp the 5 minute candles. Then, after I was done for the day, the leg down I was playing was ALL RED CANDLES, yet I managed to lose about $8.00 per share in the same time frame! This should have been one short sell, hold on, and cash out the move. Clearly, the scalping that was working for me in Jan and early Feb does not work on definitive move days. This is the same problem I was having when I was trying to learn the GOTS method last fall. I'd bail on my winners much too soon, grabbing partial profits out of fear, and sit on my losers waiting for the move back in my favor that never came!
Recently, I'd get a few winners and be up .50 cents - $1.00 per share. Yesterday and today, it is too volatile to do that. I really need to learn to READ these high ADR issues and look for the easy move of the day. Bank on one or two moves instead of being an over-trading fool! Instead of scalping each 5-minute candle, I must look for the real momo and try to ride it; the SKF $6, $8, and $10 moves in one direction. There seem to be a few of them in any given day lately. I don't mind saying this was a very frustrating day for me. I was up most of the night thinking about it.
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unknown trades; loss of -$8.00 per share

Help!

To those few who read this, thank you! Could you give me a basic idea about where to learn how to take a screen shot so that I may post it into the blog? It's probably as easy as cutting/copying and pasting but if anyone knows an easy way, I'd sure appreciate some direction! Thanks folks. I want to take a shot of the IB "Trades" screen at the end of the day and then just put it into the blog. I just don't have the time to type 47 trades and the accompanying details.

Feb 23rd

It was nice to get back on the computer and what a day to be active. I was definitely out of sync with the market, getting off to a horrible start with my first two trades; down $3.89 per share between 10:15 and 10:34 am. It is clear that time away from scalping softens the reflexes and the judgement.
I then went on a recovery streak of 13 for 15 winners; standing then at + 1.71 cents per share (reversal of $5.60 per share)
All for naught... the next two trades were like my first two of the day and I was down again... this time by -$2.17! The SKF, my only trading vehicle for the day, moves exceptionally fast at these levels and can turn on you sharply. There is no excuse when I am "scalping" to allow a loss of over a dollar per share. Simply no excuse. I am NOT trading the ETF, I am scalping it. Gotta be sharp and gotta be quick.
Next four were winners, then it got really ugly; five straight losers totalling - $5.07. If I were trading 1000 share lots, that's 5 losing trades and -$5070 gone. I found myself chasing here...indecision and chasing. Not focusing! By this time, the SKF was up huge on the day and it was just in a chop pattern and that was part of the problem. I was staring at trees and missing the forest. No definitive movement. I made another trade for a gain of .90 cents then shorted the SKF with a longer view in mind. It just felt too over bought here at 1:44 pm. I held on and did some chart study with the IB program minimized to avoid more overtrading. At 2:34 pm, I maximized my IB and OH MY... the bottom had fallen out of SKF and my short was up +$6.29! I quickly covered, having missed the bottom by a significant amount... the absolute botton of this move would have given me about $10.00 per share gain!!!
I went on to make many other trades but none of this impact, even though the reversal back up formed a perfect "Vee," and would have doubled that big gain. I decided to play small ball from her on out and finished the day at +$1.44 per share.
After my week-long absence, I was shooting for active, trial by fire trading today. And what a ride I got. One thing is certain, I am not ready for my real money account... despite my net gain.

30 winners out of 47 trades, a 64% success rate. Net gain = $1.44 per share.

Feb 20th

Busy day for Day Job work because everything was moved forward to accomodate the days I was unable to work. Looks like it will be a busy week-end as well, in order to catch up.

Feb 19th

No trades on Thursday, Feb 19th. After being "under the weather," a lot of work had piled up and had to be done.

Feb 18th

Around 2:30, I started to feel like moving around so I did a few things for the day-job and then logged into IB around 3:00pm.

I ended up making 7 trades between 3;11 pm and 3:45pm. I could tell I was rusty because I would see some momentum and I would move like a sloth to make the trade. I didn't have that crisp edge one needs. I wound up at 3 for 7, a success rate of only 43%. On the postive side, I actually was up by 54 cents per share. Three of my four losers were 11 cents or less. But, some of those would have been winners if I had been a bit sharper. Mostly my entries were slow but I was exiting in a timely way(one exit too quickly...I got out just before it moved in my favor). I made two trades in the TZA and took a gain of 4 cents out of it. All others were trades on the SKF.

Long SKF for a .01 cent loss
Long SKF for a .63 cent gain
Long SKF for a .08 cent loss
Long SKF for a .11 cent loss
Short SKF for a .07 cent gain
Short TZA for a .21 cent gain
Short TZA for a .17 cent loss

I had high hopes for today but I am struggling just to keep my head up. This virus is just dragging me through the mud so no trading for the morning session and likely none for the day. I'm going to bed. Best of luck to all, hope you knock 'em dead.

Feb 17th

No trades today although I wished I was able... Mrs Bluecollar and I shared a great Valentine this past week-end... one of us gave the other the flu!
So, under the weather and in no shape to drag myself from bed...let alone sit at the computer. Hope you all were able to make some green on the short side today!

Feb 12 - No Trades

I never even signed in to wtch the market, let alone attempt a trade. I did, however, get caught up on my admin work for the "day-job." So, visiting family tomorrow then the market is closed on Monday. I could use the break to just study the market and catch up on some technical analysis books and blogs. Hope all had a good day... looks like it was on e heck of an end of day rally! Enjoy the break.

Feb 11 trades

I found a few minutes this afternoon away from the day-job to actually paper-trade; from 2:30 to 2:53 pm. I had 6 winners out of 7 trades; a gain of $1.24 per share total on an 86% success rate. The first trade of the day was a nasty loss but I came back with 6 straight winners before going back to the admin work which actually helps pay the bills.

All trades on SKF

Long for a 1.38 loss
Short for a gain of .28 cents
Long for a gain of .10 cents
Long for a gain of .55 cents
Short for a gain of .79 cents
Long for a gain of .23 cents
Long for a gain of .67 cents at 14:53

Watching the markets but not placing trades as yet. Mostly doing day-job admin work and taking customer calls. I have a day-job appointment later today.
I rediscovered this on my favorites list and thought I'd post it for those who haven't seen it. Simple and to the point for beginners searching for a trading style or a favorite set-up to master:

www.trading-naked.com/Setups.htm

Monday the 16th and Tuesday the 17th

No trades these two days. Monday was a "day job" day and Tuesday (today) was a good day for a neophyte like me to sit and watch. The SKF was just wierd to me compared to prior days. The volume was different in relation to the moves. That's to be expected, I guess. Curious about tomorrow in this one... I should be available to trade it for a while. Or, I might just watch again.

Feb 6th Trades

Traded 9 winners out of 13 trades for Friday the 6th. All SKF. I really love the action in this ETF and feel it is a great training ground while the financials are so unsettled.

All Trades are the SKF:

Long for .26 cent gain
Short for 1.46 loss *Ouch
Short for 2.92 loss *Ouch
Short for .48 gain
Long for 1.00 gain
Short for .02 gain
Short for .15 gain
Short for .96 loss *Ouch
Short for .03 loss
Short for .35 gain
Long for .04 gain
Long for .26 gain
Long for .28 gain

Net loss of $2.53 per share. Three big losers offset a day where the winning percentage was 69% There's the lesson about cutting losses short!

Feb 5th trades

Made 9 winners out of 11 trades last Thursday the 5th. Mostly scalping SKF.

Short SKF for .24 cent gain
Short QID for .01 cent loss
Long UYG for .04 cnet gain
Short SKF for .42 cent gain
Long SKF for .17 cent gain
Short SKF for 1.18 gain
Long SKF for .24 cent gain
Long SKF for 1.68 loss
* I always seem to have a stinger each trading day... one that gets away from me. In this case, I had a profit and let it run, right into a loss. But, I was trying to predict a trend and get a longer move instead of scalping. Hmmm, not quite ready for prime time, it seems!

Long SKF for .34 cent gain
Long SKF for .66 cent gain
Long SKF for .59 cent gain ... my final trade at 13:15pm Then, off to the day job.

Gain of $2.20 per share before commissions and am satisfied with this day.

I had no idea that this little bit of a blog would be so hard to keep up with! A segment of my "day job" involves emergency service and it has been quite busy of late...this is primarily the reason for the lax posting. I have a new found respect for prolific posters. Kudos to you folks!
For those who haven't seen part two of Michael Goode's new series entitled, " So you want to be a stock trader?", check it out at http://www.goodevalue.com/ . Check out Part One first, of course, if you haven't yet.

Feb 4th Trades

Made 12 trades and gained .94 cents per share after deducting the .12 cents per share of commissions.
+12 cents on RMBS
+.57 cents on SKF
-.02 cents on RMBS
-.96 cents on SKF
* Wow, this was an absolute picture of "Inaction" and/or "Fear" dictating a trade decision! I thought the bottom was in and bought long. Inaction caused me to hold during continued drop. It kept dropping and I finally sold out of fear. That sell price was the very bottom price of the day ($139.63). Holding would have yielded a nice gain a little later; a great start on a terrific run... the biggest problem was that I didn't sell to cut my loss and wait for that bottom to develop.

+.44 cents on SKF
*caught some of the run up a few minutes after getting punished for -.96 cents
+.09 cents on SRS
-.02 cents on DDM
-.62 cents on SKF
+.16 cents on SKF * this was a click and reverse off the prior -.62 cent loss. something I want to practice more if I miss a direction change. I could have used it earlier on the -.96 cent loss in SKF.
+.41 cents on SKF
-.07 cents on SKF
+ .96 cents on SKF * this gain was taken between 13:49 and 13:59. I thought this was a good place to stop and had other duties away from the computer.
-.12 cents for commissions.


Once I figure out how to take screen shots and post them to the blog, I will show the Trade Records directly from my IB account which include action, quantity, underlying, price, time, commission, and realized P & L; if I can do so without revealing personal data about my account.
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7 for 12, 58% winners. +.94 cents gain

Dose of Reality

I was surfing some of my favorite blogs a little while ago and while on Stock Rookie, came across a link to Michael Goode's recent post on his site Goode Value Investing Blog. Entitled, "So you want to be a stock trader?", it is an eye opening, hard slap to the face for traders in training like me. I recommend all newbies study it hard. I already read it twice.
To review and simplify, he says...
1. Trading is a game of winners and losers.
2. Trading requires a great deal of effort and time invested to be continuously successful.
3. 2 out of 10 traders make money. I've always heard the 10% study cited but Michael mentions one that indicates 20%. Purely speculating, he personally believes it is fewer than 1 percent.
4. You are not the smartest, best capitalized, or the most prepared person trading the market.

I am looking forward to the next piece in the series. If the purpose of the "in your face with hard reality" approach the article takes is to draw people back to the site, it worked on me!

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Relatedly, I was thinking this morning about the rationale of trading as a profession, as I do every day. We are in a very unusual time for the stock market right now, in terms of opportunity. The VIX is still in the 40's and has been in the 70's. Before last September/October, a 30 on the VIX was worthy of note. These are great times for traders; volatility, big price swings, and momentum. As traders, this is eden.
My thought this morning was, what happens when the economic clamity starts to pass. Normalcy is destined to return and where then will we be? How many of us by then will have acquired the necessary skills and be capable of repeatedly trading for profit when the big moves are fewer and farther between?
From 2002 through 2006, real estate and mortgage brokers were stuffing the cash into their pockets. They couldn't make more money if they were printing it themselves! People poured into the industry because the money was easy. You didn't have to work all that hard for a commission. I remember the thick, weighty real estate section in our local Friday newspaper with the advertisements for the real estate brokerages which were busting at the margins with photos of their stable of brokers. That same real estate section still comes every Friday. You can guess that it is only a few pages thick now and the ads chock full of realtors with their bright smiles and their stuffed pockets are mostly gone. What are all those folks doing now for a living? Are they trading stocks in this terrific time for traders?

Where will we be in one or two years, those of us who have just arrived?

Food for thought...

Feb 3rd Trades:

Paper trading-

Short DDM 25.99 at 9:41 am; Covered 25.89 at 9:46 am. Gain 10 cents per share.
Long SRS 59.90 at 13:00 pm; Sold 59.73 at 13:02 pm. Loss 17 cents.
Short SRS 60.00 at 14:06 pm; Covered 59.75 at 14:07 pm. Gain 25 cents.
Long SRS 58.22 at 15:11 pm; Covered 58.33 at 15:14 pm. Gain 12 cents.
Long SRS 57.72 at 15:26 pm; Sold half 58.01 at 15:27 pm. Gain 29 cents. Sold remainder 57.88 at 15:29 pm. Gain 16 cents.
Short SRS 58.32 at 15:39 pm; Covered 58.60 at 15:40 pm Loss 28 cents
* this was a "rocks in my head" trade. I hit sell instead of buy, realized it 8 seconds later and covered. Good idea, bad execution! Should have been a 28 cent or greater gain.
Short SRS 59.26 at 15:42 pm; Covered 58.97 at 15:43 pm. Gain 29 cents.
Short SRS 58.99 at 15:44 pm; Covered 58.90 at 15:45 pm. Gain 9 cents.


Analysis: Clearly overtrading, nervous when I have a gain. Gotta take a valium at 9:15 am on trading days! Even I could hardly lose with the type of momentum moves on a day like today. Of course, there's no "losing" with paper-trading, which makes it easy. Also why I don't bother to post $ gains and losses. It really doesn't matter. It's PASS/FAIL.
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Addendum as of May 7th 2009
In an effort to quantify my progress from the very beginning, I am posting gain/loss data for Feb as I did later in March and beyond.

8 for 9; 89% winners. Gain of 85 cents per share.

What this is about...

This is my first post on the first blog I've ever done, on a topic that I don't always seem to know well, surrounded in the financial blogosphere by blogs of great distinction. I guess you could say this is an inauspicious, humble, but hopeful beginning!

I have loved the idea of money as far back as I can remember. My father owned a few stocks and I still remember my fascination with the annual reports he would get in the mail. I still recall his discussions with me of how he should have bought Chrysler stock back when the first "auto bailout" occurred. I chose Economics, the dismal science, as a major in college. I pursued the job of treasurer when I could; the alumni board for my college fraternity for 3 1/2 years, two years for a local trade-association with whom I aspired to do business. I do my own book keeping and taxes for my business of nearly 19 years. Economy, money, investing: they have been a large part of my world since I was a child. Trading is just the next logical step for me.

The purpose of doing the blog is mostly to hold myself accountable for the work I put into trading. That if everyone can see on the screen my losses and wins, perhaps it will incite me to bull ahead... to continue to improve and to progress toward my ultimate goal: To earn my living as a self-employed stock trader.
To say that this is my ultimate goal somehow seems an understatement! I want it so badly that I can feel it in my every movement. I trade stocks in my sleep and I see big-volume momentum plays where others see the common sights of daily life. Stock trading is woven into everything I do and I love it.
Secondly, the reason for blogging is to keep a written record of my trading activities and the thoughts that accompany them. It is common for traders to keep a trading journal. Record keeping and admin. duties are not my strong suit and this blog, if I can keep at it, will allow me to perform this function.

I am a devotee of short-term momentum-driven day trading. I have been studying the "Momo Method" since the summer of 2008 through various blogs and chat rooms. I like the fact that there is no overnight risk. I like the fact that it is fast and edgy. I like the fact that it can be done from virtually anywhere. And, I like the fact that if it can be learned, it is a skill which can provide a nice living with very little overhead, well into old age.

In the interest of disclosure, I started with $35,000 in an IB trading account in Mid-October. I currently have $33,800. I also have an active paper-trading account with IB and that's where I spend 90% of my time. Admittedly, I am still trying to master parts of the platform, which should not be done with real dollars, in my opinion. I have been a little fickle in my trading approach, trying to discover a style which will work for the long-term. I began watching Cramer on CNBC a couple years ago, delved into swing-trading in March of 2008 by visiting Day-Trader Rock Star's blog before it went pay, and listening to his live radio web-cast (still do, from time-to-time). After becoming disillusioned by long-biased trading, I found Green on the Screen and immediately liked what was there. GOTS morphed into Dark Side Trading and when its founders recently went pay, I expanded my exposure to the Momo method by finding Fear & Greed Day Trader thanks to James (aka Yngvai), at his blog home: welcometothegutter.blogspot.com
I highly recommend his site and occasionally weight it down with posts of my own!

If you are reading this, thank you for checking it out. As I mentioned earlier, it is a humble beginning. I don't expect to have many visitors and certainly don't foresee repeat visitors! It is my hope that as I progress as a trader, the content will improve and perhaps be of interest even to experienced market folks. Until then, you can expect mostly personal reflections of trading, discussion of other blogs, of the economy, politics, and finance rather than stunning technical analysis and savvy trading ideas!
Once I learn how to manage the site better, I hope to include charts.

Once again, thanks for taking a look... drop by again!