No changes in the trading account since last post.
========
Long 1000 shares TZA in the retirement account at $24.45 in the 3:50 pm candle last Friday, August 2nd. Sold all at $24.62 in the 9:40 am candle today; three cents after touching the HOD. No other activity.
Gain of $189.
Monday, August 5, 2013
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
July 31 ( $0 )
I haven't posted for a week or so, because I have had zero activity in any of my accounts. Still holding TNA and TZA in my trading account. It hasn't been fun to watch, but I do believe we are poised for a break to the downside.
=======
Today, I took a long in the retirement account; Long 1000 TZA at $24.91 at approximately 2:54 pm. Sold all at $25.11 around 3:34 pm. Gain of $181. My read and entry was a good one, but my exit was early, leaving a great deal on the table as TZA rose steadily beginning about 6 minutes after my exit.
=======
Today, I took a long in the retirement account; Long 1000 TZA at $24.91 at approximately 2:54 pm. Sold all at $25.11 around 3:34 pm. Gain of $181. My read and entry was a good one, but my exit was early, leaving a great deal on the table as TZA rose steadily beginning about 6 minutes after my exit.
Monday, July 22, 2013
July 22 ( $0 )
No changes.
================
Retirement Account:
11:37 am - Bought 1000 TZA @ $24.87; somewhat early at about 8 minutes before the turn.
1:25 pm - Sold 1000 TZA @ $25.02 into the big volume candle.
Gain of $130.
================
Retirement Account:
11:37 am - Bought 1000 TZA @ $24.87; somewhat early at about 8 minutes before the turn.
1:25 pm - Sold 1000 TZA @ $25.02 into the big volume candle.
Gain of $130.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
July 18
No changes to my trades.
DOW up over 1000 points and the S&P 500 up over 8% in 17 days. How the 'F' is that real?
As of today, TNA is within a few points of the FURTHEST away from its 200 day EMA since before the market crash of 2008-2009. Only exceeded by the move to the downside in August 2011, and we all know how much more extreme stock movement is when the momentum is down, given human nature. My daily historical chart doesn't go back further given the way it is set up, so I don't want to say this is unprecedented, but it certainly is exceptional.
=======
In the retirement account, I went long 1000 TZA at $25.02 at 11:03 am and exited at $25.20 at 12:44 pm. Net gain of $160.
DOW up over 1000 points and the S&P 500 up over 8% in 17 days. How the 'F' is that real?
As of today, TNA is within a few points of the FURTHEST away from its 200 day EMA since before the market crash of 2008-2009. Only exceeded by the move to the downside in August 2011, and we all know how much more extreme stock movement is when the momentum is down, given human nature. My daily historical chart doesn't go back further given the way it is set up, so I don't want to say this is unprecedented, but it certainly is exceptional.
=======
In the retirement account, I went long 1000 TZA at $25.02 at 11:03 am and exited at $25.20 at 12:44 pm. Net gain of $160.
July 17 ( $0 )
Other than last Friday, I have made no changes to my TNA TZA swing-trade. And it is a real pain in the account. The market keeps going UP UP UP in the face of bad news and obviously with good news. It is irrational but to paraphrase a wise man, "Markets will remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent."
=======
As of today's high print in TNA, with the exception of one day in August 2011, price is further away from it's 200 day moving average than at any point in the past four to five years. That includes the throes of the market crash of 2008 into 2009!
This run with very little pullback is a tremendous anomaly. This is why I'm holding. And the market moves up to inflict as much pain as possible in order to drive out all the shorts, before it retreats. So it goes higher for now and will continue until the weak hands are beaten into submission. This is the basis for the old market adage, "Your first loss is your best loss."
=======
On the bright side, I have been doing well trading in the retirement account, with recent gains of $100, $460, and $390. However, my opportunities are limited because it is not a margin account; funds must settle after a trade before being reused.
=======
As of today's high print in TNA, with the exception of one day in August 2011, price is further away from it's 200 day moving average than at any point in the past four to five years. That includes the throes of the market crash of 2008 into 2009!
This run with very little pullback is a tremendous anomaly. This is why I'm holding. And the market moves up to inflict as much pain as possible in order to drive out all the shorts, before it retreats. So it goes higher for now and will continue until the weak hands are beaten into submission. This is the basis for the old market adage, "Your first loss is your best loss."
=======
On the bright side, I have been doing well trading in the retirement account, with recent gains of $100, $460, and $390. However, my opportunities are limited because it is not a margin account; funds must settle after a trade before being reused.
Friday, July 12 ( Loss $888)
This was from last Friday. I took off 500 shares of TZA to lighten my risk some.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
July 11 ( $0 )
11:12 am : Holding my TNA and TZA trades. This market is so heavily over bought and has run steeply enough that I'll take my chances on this swing trade becoming a profitable one.
------------
-My prices per share are in the upper third or higher of this trend move, even after today's big pop.
-Because of the opening gap up, TNA is further above its 12-day exponential moving average than at any point since 2011.
-Three out of the last four trading days have been unfilled gaps up.
-We have had two straight gaps up on the weekly charts; both unfilled. One gap up week is unusual and when it does happen, it has historically been filled fairly quickly. Reiterate: we've had two unfilled weekly gaps up in a row.
-The vertical line of the run-up since June is as steep as any in the past couple years.
-And from this morning's post containing information and a chart from ZeroHedge.com: Every time in the past 20 years that the S & P 500 has been this far above its 200-day moving average, it has reversed to a point where price breaks down through the average. Every Time In 20 years.
- This commentary from another post late today at one of my favorite websites, ZeroHedge.com:
"The last 12 days have seen the S&P 500 surge 7.5% - this is the fastest run since the co-ordinated global intervention that started Thanksgiving 2011. The overnight gap open never looked like being tested and volume remained average at best all day (until the 1400ET vert-ramp took us instantaneously above the previous all-time high close - running stops on the way - and pushing volume well 'below' average). Interestingly, the sectors did not enjoy the smash higher that the indices did and all pretty much trod water from open to close (with builders best all day)."
-----------
I took a new swing trade in TZA in the retirement account this morning in the 10:15 am timeframe. Long 750 shares at $26.70. At this time, I intend to hold this one for a while, though that may change at any time. This account is not eligible for margin, so I am severely limited in the shares available to trade, otherwise I would have entered with 2000 shares.
------------
-My prices per share are in the upper third or higher of this trend move, even after today's big pop.
-Because of the opening gap up, TNA is further above its 12-day exponential moving average than at any point since 2011.
-Three out of the last four trading days have been unfilled gaps up.
-We have had two straight gaps up on the weekly charts; both unfilled. One gap up week is unusual and when it does happen, it has historically been filled fairly quickly. Reiterate: we've had two unfilled weekly gaps up in a row.
-The vertical line of the run-up since June is as steep as any in the past couple years.
-And from this morning's post containing information and a chart from ZeroHedge.com: Every time in the past 20 years that the S & P 500 has been this far above its 200-day moving average, it has reversed to a point where price breaks down through the average. Every Time In 20 years.
- This commentary from another post late today at one of my favorite websites, ZeroHedge.com:
"The last 12 days have seen the S&P 500 surge 7.5% - this is the fastest run since the co-ordinated global intervention that started Thanksgiving 2011. The overnight gap open never looked like being tested and volume remained average at best all day (until the 1400ET vert-ramp took us instantaneously above the previous all-time high close - running stops on the way - and pushing volume well 'below' average). Interestingly, the sectors did not enjoy the smash higher that the indices did and all pretty much trod water from open to close (with builders best all day)."
-----------
I took a new swing trade in TZA in the retirement account this morning in the 10:15 am timeframe. Long 750 shares at $26.70. At this time, I intend to hold this one for a while, though that may change at any time. This account is not eligible for margin, so I am severely limited in the shares available to trade, otherwise I would have entered with 2000 shares.
Saw it, Liked it, Reposting it...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/what-happens-next
Each time the S&P 500 has traded more than 12% above its 200-day moving-average, the following correction has not ended until the average itself was breached by price action. Fundamentally, one can tie 'events' to each of these exuberance spikes - in this case, liquidity-turns-into-a-taper - but sometimes historical prices can be a better guide to the human biases for extrapolating trends and building fragility. Given current levels that would mean a 10% drop from current levels to 1516.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Ouch
I originally put this on today's post but decided to separate it out. BlueCollarTrader is as much diary as it is a 'Blog'... it's a web log of my thoughts and activities related to the markets and my interaction with them. So, here it is:
6:36 pm: I just got in from working out in the yard and switched on CNBC. This is bad... I logged in to the brokerage account and find myself down a lot according to the futures... they're up 11 points in after hours. It appears I've horribly miscalculated and it has put me down over $4,000 as of right now. That really hurts... this is what I was thinking could happen but the odds were against it according to the charts. But, as I wrote earlier, world events and The Federal Reserve were the wild cards. And one of those cards has been played and has stung me. $4,000 is about 3% of my account so it isn't a crushing blow if I take that sort of loss. But, in contrast with my gains, it is a lot. And the fact that I could REALLY use the money now. In fact, we need trading to start paying us... providing an income. And this is a long way from paying us. In that context, it hurts a lot.
So... on the bright side, I had a very good trade in the retirement account today. Nearly a $1000 gain on one trend move. This is perhaps the worst part of this... I have the skills, the bankroll, and the will to be profitable. What I don't have is the consistent SELF-DISCIPLINE to make those gains on a daily basis. If I did, my current unrealized losses would represent a few days worth of winnings.
I still believe that the charts indicate a pullback... but with Bernanke's 'dove-ish' comments, the markets are going to sail and if I sell, I'll be down thousands of dollars. And the couple of times I've bailed out by "Throwing in the Towel," two or three days later the stock reverses and I would have been back to even or have made nice gains had I held.
Do I have faith in my reading of the charts? or, do I just "Throw in the Towel" and take a big loss in fear of even greater losses?
I am truly shocked by this move, but when the TNA didn't break down today, my gut was telling me that something was not right. But, I stuck to my thesis. And here I am...
July 10 ( $ 0 )
Mid day and still holding my TNA and TZA. market is down slightly and still showing lots of demand on dips.
No shares added or reduced today in the trading account.
More evaluation of TNA:
The vertical distance between the 12-day moving average and the high of the day yesterday on the daily chart is the second largest since November of 2011. (There were a number of instances of this prior in 2011 because of the deep drop in the overall markets during August that year and the resulting volatility). The other instance was just two weeks ago on June 24th, just prior to this steep run! In both of these, November 2011 and two weeks ago, a notable reversal soon followed.
The stochastics still register over 96 on the 0 - 100 scale so far today.
What does this mean put together with my other research notes from my prior blog post? It means that there is a high liklihood of a winning trade as I have it presently constructed. Is it a sure-winner? No way. Am I nervous about this much money on the line without a stop in place? ... I am. My concern is that there will be earnings or Federal Reserve news that will cause the markets to soar before the pullback takes place. I am uneasy because of the large number of shares that were traded between 10:10 and 10:30 am this morning... my concern being that this was buying as the price dropped. There is not a lot of volume in the move back up since 11:25 am so that is favorable to my trade, I believe.
From the June 24th low of this trend to today's high, my TNA price is exactly at the Fibonacci 23.6 % reversal line, for those who watch Fib lines.
I occasionally watch the CNBC show Fast Money. I tune out the blah blah blah that fills most of the show but tune in for the trader comments about their own moves. Joe Terranova stated on last night's show that he had taken off an S&P long trade earlier in the day in anticipation of a pullback today related to an expected negative Chinese data release overnight. he did say he wouldn't get short here though. The data was not good as he expected. The market is pulling back some today but not dramatically as I had hoped.
2:20 pm: Not happy to see the FED Minutes release result in a market spike. My unrealized losses are at the highest they've been. Especially frustrating is the fact that at 11:30 am I could have exited my TZA portion of the trade at break-even.
2:40 pm: TNA price now down to the center of the daily range... approximately $53.65 and the FED spike has abated.
2:55pm: Price dropped aggressively to the 53.35 level where buying was equally aggressive, as it has been over the past day. e.g. 2:45 pm, 12:25 pm, 12:00 pm, 11:00 through 11:25 am, 10:30 am today and yesterday at 3:50 pm and 11:20 am
This is a critical level that must be broken for my trade to move toward profitability. I am concerned how this level is providing strong support like $52.31 did on Monday afternoon. It was a solid base and a springboard for both yesterday's and today's new highs. I am surely hoping that $53.35 doesn't replicate that pattern.
3:25 pm: TNA at the highs of the day. This is not what I expected today, based on my interpretation of multi-day charts. The odd thing is, the SPY is at the middle of its daily range. This reminds me of how TNA behaved in relation to the general markets during the March and April/May move up. It was unusually exuberant to the upside compared to SPY.
3:40 pm: TNA holding its perch just under the HOD, presumably to make a jump. My morning optimism has waned greatly, but the TNA and SPY daily charts still say the same things to me. A pullback is imminent. In fact, there is a doji on the SPY as I write this at 3:42pm. It also retreated from $166 resistance earlier in the day.
4:04 pm: TNA finished the day above both moving averages and in the top one-third of the daily range. Not at all what I was expecting. SPY actually broke out of the doji formation and ended the day slightly green but certainly off its high of the day ( HOD ).
============
I did add 2000 shares of TZA to the retirement account trade; 2000 shares at $27.64 in the 9:55 candle timeframe. This brings my average cost of 3000 total shares to $27.78.
Sold these 3000 shares at $28.02 in the 11:25 am timeframe. Gain of $960. Nice entry on these 2000 shares and nearly a perfect exit. I believe this is my largest single position gain ever.
No shares added or reduced today in the trading account.
More evaluation of TNA:
The vertical distance between the 12-day moving average and the high of the day yesterday on the daily chart is the second largest since November of 2011. (There were a number of instances of this prior in 2011 because of the deep drop in the overall markets during August that year and the resulting volatility). The other instance was just two weeks ago on June 24th, just prior to this steep run! In both of these, November 2011 and two weeks ago, a notable reversal soon followed.
The stochastics still register over 96 on the 0 - 100 scale so far today.
What does this mean put together with my other research notes from my prior blog post? It means that there is a high liklihood of a winning trade as I have it presently constructed. Is it a sure-winner? No way. Am I nervous about this much money on the line without a stop in place? ... I am. My concern is that there will be earnings or Federal Reserve news that will cause the markets to soar before the pullback takes place. I am uneasy because of the large number of shares that were traded between 10:10 and 10:30 am this morning... my concern being that this was buying as the price dropped. There is not a lot of volume in the move back up since 11:25 am so that is favorable to my trade, I believe.
From the June 24th low of this trend to today's high, my TNA price is exactly at the Fibonacci 23.6 % reversal line, for those who watch Fib lines.
I occasionally watch the CNBC show Fast Money. I tune out the blah blah blah that fills most of the show but tune in for the trader comments about their own moves. Joe Terranova stated on last night's show that he had taken off an S&P long trade earlier in the day in anticipation of a pullback today related to an expected negative Chinese data release overnight. he did say he wouldn't get short here though. The data was not good as he expected. The market is pulling back some today but not dramatically as I had hoped.
2:20 pm: Not happy to see the FED Minutes release result in a market spike. My unrealized losses are at the highest they've been. Especially frustrating is the fact that at 11:30 am I could have exited my TZA portion of the trade at break-even.
2:40 pm: TNA price now down to the center of the daily range... approximately $53.65 and the FED spike has abated.
2:55pm: Price dropped aggressively to the 53.35 level where buying was equally aggressive, as it has been over the past day. e.g. 2:45 pm, 12:25 pm, 12:00 pm, 11:00 through 11:25 am, 10:30 am today and yesterday at 3:50 pm and 11:20 am
This is a critical level that must be broken for my trade to move toward profitability. I am concerned how this level is providing strong support like $52.31 did on Monday afternoon. It was a solid base and a springboard for both yesterday's and today's new highs. I am surely hoping that $53.35 doesn't replicate that pattern.
3:25 pm: TNA at the highs of the day. This is not what I expected today, based on my interpretation of multi-day charts. The odd thing is, the SPY is at the middle of its daily range. This reminds me of how TNA behaved in relation to the general markets during the March and April/May move up. It was unusually exuberant to the upside compared to SPY.
3:40 pm: TNA holding its perch just under the HOD, presumably to make a jump. My morning optimism has waned greatly, but the TNA and SPY daily charts still say the same things to me. A pullback is imminent. In fact, there is a doji on the SPY as I write this at 3:42pm. It also retreated from $166 resistance earlier in the day.
4:04 pm: TNA finished the day above both moving averages and in the top one-third of the daily range. Not at all what I was expecting. SPY actually broke out of the doji formation and ended the day slightly green but certainly off its high of the day ( HOD ).
============
I did add 2000 shares of TZA to the retirement account trade; 2000 shares at $27.64 in the 9:55 candle timeframe. This brings my average cost of 3000 total shares to $27.78.
Sold these 3000 shares at $28.02 in the 11:25 am timeframe. Gain of $960. Nice entry on these 2000 shares and nearly a perfect exit. I believe this is my largest single position gain ever.
July 9 ( $0 )
Down more as the markets climbed and TNA followed. Sure that this extended run was going to break so I added to my TZA long trade. Bought 1000 TZA at $27.79 and 1000 at $27.98. Digging a hole to possibly drown in but my review of daily charts finds that the odds of a breakdown are increasing a great deal. Not today however...
------------------
Also took long trade in TZA in the retirement account and am holding it overnight; 1000 shares at $27.78
------------------
More TNA chart research:
This 8-day run has one of the steepest climbs in the past few years; meaning very little pullback.
Two consecutive days of gap ups without filling.
Stochastic Oscillator on the daily historical chart using the 0 - 100 scale was over 98 in the pre-market and was at 96- 97 all day. Only twice since 2010 has TNA not resulted in a downturn allowing for a winner within 90 days when that level was reached. Most downturns gave opportunities for winners within two to four weeks.
Weekly charts shows two consecutive weeks of gap ups without filling. I looked back a few years at the weeklies and discovered that two consecutive weeks gapping up hasn't happened. And of the SINGLE weekly gap-ups that did happen, all but one have filled; including gaps in both up and down trends. The run up since June 24th is very rare in terms of raw momentum.
If Monday's daily chart gap-up is filled and I choose to hold my current position until then, I'll have a decent net gain from TNA and TZA.
------------------
Also took long trade in TZA in the retirement account and am holding it overnight; 1000 shares at $27.78
------------------
More TNA chart research:
This 8-day run has one of the steepest climbs in the past few years; meaning very little pullback.
Two consecutive days of gap ups without filling.
Stochastic Oscillator on the daily historical chart using the 0 - 100 scale was over 98 in the pre-market and was at 96- 97 all day. Only twice since 2010 has TNA not resulted in a downturn allowing for a winner within 90 days when that level was reached. Most downturns gave opportunities for winners within two to four weeks.
Weekly charts shows two consecutive weeks of gap ups without filling. I looked back a few years at the weeklies and discovered that two consecutive weeks gapping up hasn't happened. And of the SINGLE weekly gap-ups that did happen, all but one have filled; including gaps in both up and down trends. The run up since June 24th is very rare in terms of raw momentum.
If Monday's daily chart gap-up is filled and I choose to hold my current position until then, I'll have a decent net gain from TNA and TZA.
Monday July 8 ( $ 0 )
Found myself negative in the TNA trade from late Friday. Did not buy to cover.
---------
Bought 500 TZA at $28.50
---------
Bought 500 TZA at $28.50
Friday, July 5, 2013
July 5 ( Loss $76.74 )
At the very end of the day, I tried to scalp a 1000 shares short in TNA at $51.45. Covered half for the above-noted loss. Holding the other 500 shares for Monday. This really isn't the sort of trading I want to do, but my gut tells me a pullback is due after an eight day move up with a close so close to the high of the day.
Because this was a scalp. I'll be looking to cash this one out ASAP on Monday, especially if it is down near my target of $51 even. Potential slap in the face with no stop engaged, however.
---------
Because this was a scalp. I'll be looking to cash this one out ASAP on Monday, especially if it is down near my target of $51 even. Potential slap in the face with no stop engaged, however.
---------
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
July 3 ( $101.83 )
Short trading day with the market closing at 1:00pm in observance of the United States of America's July 4th Independence Day holiday.
=======
Two trades today in TNA. Both shorts into the primary move of the day. The first captured most of the 12:00 pm candle's pullback. The second trade was a sell at 12:23pm at $49.95; only four cents from the high print of the day. Both trades were nice entries. The first exit was timely. The second exit was far too soon, with the move I was playing reaching a low price of 49.34 at the 12:50 pm candle. I took 11 cents of the 61 cents available to me; 18%.
********************************************************************************
May blessings always fall on My Beloved Country; the noble and wise experiment in self-governance that originally chose to dismiss central authoritarianism in favor of representative republicanism. Trusting the people with their natural and rightfully inalienable rights, our founders put forth documents outlining the powers of the federal government and leaving all the rest for local authorities.
My maternal ancestors fought at Concord Bridge at the first battle of the American Revolution. Paternal ancestors arrived from Ireland and Germany in the 19th century and established a life carved out of the earth by blue-collar agricultural tenacity and hardship mostly unknown to people of our time. Grit, determination, perseverance- these are the qualities that defined most of those of the 1800's.
My late father was a World War II veteran of the United States Navy... sailing to Formosa (now Taiwan) to prepare for the invasion of the main islands of Japan when fortunately the nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending the war. He, like so many millions more of our fighting men and women are the reason why we have the life we have. And Independence day, like other days on the calendar, are directly attributable to them.
=========
The ideal still reigns despite her mistakes and missteps:
hen in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
And the answer is still contained in the Preamble to the United States Constitution:
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
=======
Two trades today in TNA. Both shorts into the primary move of the day. The first captured most of the 12:00 pm candle's pullback. The second trade was a sell at 12:23pm at $49.95; only four cents from the high print of the day. Both trades were nice entries. The first exit was timely. The second exit was far too soon, with the move I was playing reaching a low price of 49.34 at the 12:50 pm candle. I took 11 cents of the 61 cents available to me; 18%.
********************************************************************************
May blessings always fall on My Beloved Country; the noble and wise experiment in self-governance that originally chose to dismiss central authoritarianism in favor of representative republicanism. Trusting the people with their natural and rightfully inalienable rights, our founders put forth documents outlining the powers of the federal government and leaving all the rest for local authorities.
My maternal ancestors fought at Concord Bridge at the first battle of the American Revolution. Paternal ancestors arrived from Ireland and Germany in the 19th century and established a life carved out of the earth by blue-collar agricultural tenacity and hardship mostly unknown to people of our time. Grit, determination, perseverance- these are the qualities that defined most of those of the 1800's.
My late father was a World War II veteran of the United States Navy... sailing to Formosa (now Taiwan) to prepare for the invasion of the main islands of Japan when fortunately the nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, ending the war. He, like so many millions more of our fighting men and women are the reason why we have the life we have. And Independence day, like other days on the calendar, are directly attributable to them.
=========
The ideal still reigns despite her mistakes and missteps:
IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America
hen in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their Public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected, whereby the Legislative Powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary Powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil Power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefit of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation, and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & Perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.
Pennsylvania:
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer,James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer,James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross
Virginia:
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton
And the answer is still contained in the Preamble to the United States Constitution:
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
July 2 ( Gain $161.72 )
Three trades of TNA in the IB trading account today resulting in three winners of 40.60, 26.00, and 95.12.
======
Sadly, I got out of my first trade too early after a great entry short; $50.22 at 11:49 am. Six cents below the high print of the day, at the start of the biggest trend move of the day... It's hard to get a better price than that. Based on that entry, I had $2.00 per share available to me; my gain was a meager 9 cents, 4 % of the total move. Plain foolishness... really.
======
I made a long trade in TNA from a retirement account and did not include it in the above totals. I took $339 on 1000 shares long at $48.32 during the 2:40 pm candle. Another good entry, going long only 11 cents from the low print of the day. I exited at about $48.65. Still early, it was a better exit than most I've performed in recent memory. This move allowed me up to $1.00 per share of gains had I traded it perfectly. I took approximately one-third of the trend as gain.
======
Sadly, I got out of my first trade too early after a great entry short; $50.22 at 11:49 am. Six cents below the high print of the day, at the start of the biggest trend move of the day... It's hard to get a better price than that. Based on that entry, I had $2.00 per share available to me; my gain was a meager 9 cents, 4 % of the total move. Plain foolishness... really.
======
I made a long trade in TNA from a retirement account and did not include it in the above totals. I took $339 on 1000 shares long at $48.32 during the 2:40 pm candle. Another good entry, going long only 11 cents from the low print of the day. I exited at about $48.65. Still early, it was a better exit than most I've performed in recent memory. This move allowed me up to $1.00 per share of gains had I traded it perfectly. I took approximately one-third of the trend as gain.
Monday, July 1, 2013
Helpful to Struggling Traders...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130627125522.htm
June 27, 2013 — Our daily routines can become so ingrained that we perform them automatically, such as taking the same route to work every day. Some behaviors, such as smoking or biting your fingernails, become so habitual that we can't stop even if we want to.
Although breaking habits can be hard, MIT neuroscientists have now shown that they can prevent them from taking root in the first place, in rats learning to run a maze to earn a reward. The researchers first demonstrated that activity in two distinct brain regions is necessary in order for habits to crystallize. Then, they were able to block habits from forming by interfering with activity in one of the brain regions -- the infralimbic (IL) cortex, which is located in the prefrontal cortex.
The MIT researchers, led by Institute Professor Ann Graybiel, used a technique called optogenetics to block activity in the IL cortex. This allowed them to control cells of the IL cortex using light. When the cells were turned off during every maze training run, the rats still learned to run the maze correctly, but when the reward was made to taste bad, they stopped, showing that a habit had not formed. If it had, they would keep going back by habit.
"It's usually so difficult to break a habit," Graybiel says. "It's also difficult to have a habit not form when you get a reward for what you're doing. But with this manipulation, it's absolutely easy. You just turn the light on, and bingo."
Graybiel, a member of MIT's McGovern Institute for Brain Research, is the senior author of a paper describing the findings in the June 27 issue of the journal Neuron. Kyle Smith, a former MIT postdoc who is now an assistant professor at Dartmouth College, is the paper's lead author.
Patterns of habitual behavior
Previous studies of how habits are formed and controlled have implicated the IL cortex as well as the striatum, a part of the brain related to addiction and repetitive behavioral problems, as well as normal functions such as decision-making, planning and response to reward. It is believed that the motor patterns needed to execute a habitual behavior are stored in the striatum and its circuits.
Recent studies from Graybiel's lab have shown that disrupting activity in the IL cortex can block the expression of habits that have already been learned and stored in the striatum. Last year, Smith and Graybiel found that the IL cortex appears to decide which of two previously learned habits will be expressed.
"We have evidence that these two areas are important for habits, but they're not connected at all, and no one has much of an idea of what the cells are doing as a habit is formed, as the habit is lost, and as a new habit takes over," Smith says.
To investigate that, Smith recorded activity in cells of the IL cortex as rats learned to run a maze. He found activity patterns very similar to those that appear in the striatum during habit formation. Several years ago, Graybiel found that a distinctive "task-bracketing" pattern develops when habits are formed. This means that the cells are very active when the animal begins its run through the maze, are quiet during the run, and then fire up again when the task is finished.
This kind of pattern "chunks" habits into a large unit that the brain can simply turn on when the habitual behavior is triggered, without having to think about each individual action that goes into the habitual behavior.
The researchers found that this pattern took longer to appear in the IL cortex than in the striatum, and it was also less permanent. Unlike the pattern in the striatum, which remains stored even when a habit is broken, the IL cortex pattern appears and disappears as habits are formed and broken. This was the clue that the IL cortex, not the striatum, was tracking the development of the habit.
Multiple layers of control
The researchers' ability to optogenetically block the formation of new habits suggests that the IL cortex not only exerts real-time control over habits and compulsions, but is also needed for habits to form in the first place.
"The previous idea was that the habits were stored in the sensorimotor system and this cortical area was just selecting the habit to be expressed. Now we think it's a more fundamental contribution to habits, that the IL cortex is more actively making this happen," Smith says.
This arrangement offers multiple layers of control over habitual behavior, which could be advantageous in reining in automatic behavior, Graybiel says. It is also possible that the IL cortex is contributing specific pieces of the habitual behavior, in addition to exerting control over whether it occurs, according to the researchers. They are now trying to determine whether the IL cortex and the striatum are communicating with and influencing each other, or simply acting in parallel.
"A role for the IL cortex in the regulation of habit is not a new idea, but the details of the interaction between it and the striatum that emerge from this analysis are novel and interesting," says Christopher Pittenger, an assistant professor of psychiatry and psychology at Yale University School of Medicine, who was not part of the research team. "Thinking in the long term, it raises the question of whether targeted manipulations of the IL cortex might be useful for the breaking habits -- and exciting possibility with potential clinical ramifications."
The study suggests a new way to look for abnormal activity that might cause disorders of repetitive behavior, Smith says. Now that the researchers have identified the neural signature of a normal habit, they can look for signs of habitual behavior that is learned too quickly or becomes too rigid. Finding such a signature could allow scientists to develop new ways to treat disorders of repetitive behavior by using deep brain stimulation, which uses electronic impulses delivered by a pacemaker to suppress abnormal brain activity.
June 28, Friday ( Gain $6.58)
Made one trade, a short of TNA during the 10:30 am intra-candle pull back. This trade ended up as a break even (+ $6.58) effort. When I clicked Buy (to cover), the gain was near $30, but price jumped up just as I clicked, then continued up.
Mostly, I am trying to complete an important time-sensitive home project so my trading activities are limited presently. I hope to be back to it full time late next week.
Mostly, I am trying to complete an important time-sensitive home project so my trading activities are limited presently. I hope to be back to it full time late next week.
Friday, June 28, 2013
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
June 26 ( Gain $86.35)
I haven't posted a chart in a while so I thought I'd stick this one up on the blog. I had two trades today, noted on the chart by the short green lines, then my exits marked by the red lines... connected by the green lines indicating a winning trade (red line would indicate loser). The short yellow lines are my two practice trades, the second of which I actually turned into my second live trade about 25 minutes later in the 3:25 pm candle.
------------
The two practice trades as well as the two live trades were great entry points; nice reads of momentum. The two exits were abominable. Out far too soon, as one can see. Clearly, I have a problem. This has been my most frustrating issue over the past 6 to 8 months, outside my difficulty with stops.
------------
Here's the screen shot of my trade log for the day. Ouch.
.bmp)
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
June 25 (Gain $36.85)
Not much of a gain today on the two trades. But, both trades were good entries, especially the second one; shorted 500 TNA at $45.20 at 3:44pm. Out too soon on both... the same old song and dance routine. I took only 9 cents out of the 40 cents that my two trades would have allowed me.
=========
On the other hand, gains are good and my entries continue to be pretty good and improving.
=========
Two of my three practice trades would have allowed for gains over a dollar; eighty cents on one and 35 cents on the other... excellent entries on both. The third practice trade was a short in the 3:15 pm candle that went ten cents in my favor then reversed hard to form the final push up from 3:20 through 3:35 pm. It would have stopped out, in other words.
=========
On the other hand, gains are good and my entries continue to be pretty good and improving.
=========
Two of my three practice trades would have allowed for gains over a dollar; eighty cents on one and 35 cents on the other... excellent entries on both. The third practice trade was a short in the 3:15 pm candle that went ten cents in my favor then reversed hard to form the final push up from 3:20 through 3:35 pm. It would have stopped out, in other words.
June 24 (Gain $194.47)
Five winning trades out of five taken, though one was basically a stop out. All in TNA, each with 500 shares traded.
Winners of $46.01, $31.03, $55.81, $60.80, $.82
Two were trades taken with exits too soon. One was the stop out. The other two were trades taken in situations where momentum was brief or slowing. Late entry on one, and the other was just a pullback.
I took a couple practice trades that were much more profitable than my live trades. Pulling the trigger more frequently is necessary.
Winners of $46.01, $31.03, $55.81, $60.80, $.82
Two were trades taken with exits too soon. One was the stop out. The other two were trades taken in situations where momentum was brief or slowing. Late entry on one, and the other was just a pullback.
I took a couple practice trades that were much more profitable than my live trades. Pulling the trigger more frequently is necessary.
Friday, June 21, 2013
June 21 (Gain $45.82)
One live trade, one winner. Out far, far too soon. Long 500 shares of TNA at $44.82 at 2:10 pm. Exit all at 2:11 pm for 10 cent gain. Price eventually hit $45.88 in the 3:30 pm candle; over a dollar available to me had I stayed in.
-----------------
My practice trades were also mostly successful with some stop outs. I didn't take the trade, but the SPY doji at 11:45 am on the 15 minute chart was a nice signal to go Long.
-----------------
My practice trades were also mostly successful with some stop outs. I didn't take the trade, but the SPY doji at 11:45 am on the 15 minute chart was a nice signal to go Long.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
June 20 (Gain $97.63)
Gain of $97.63 on three positive trades in 500 shares of TNA each.
Monster day in the markets. All three of my winners were on mean reversion/ fade the primary trend of downward movement. Kind of ridiculous to be looking long on the biggest down day of the year (?).
-----------
I had a couple practice trades that were shorts and they worked out well, obviously. I also took a couple practice trades long; 3:25 pm and 3:35 pm. Both stopped out at the bottom of the candles. Now, as the market is in its last five minutes, those two trades would have been big winners as price rallies big in the last 10 minutes. I believed it was going to go up, but my execution was wrong.
Monster day in the markets. All three of my winners were on mean reversion/ fade the primary trend of downward movement. Kind of ridiculous to be looking long on the biggest down day of the year (?).
-----------
I had a couple practice trades that were shorts and they worked out well, obviously. I also took a couple practice trades long; 3:25 pm and 3:35 pm. Both stopped out at the bottom of the candles. Now, as the market is in its last five minutes, those two trades would have been big winners as price rallies big in the last 10 minutes. I believed it was going to go up, but my execution was wrong.
Monday, June 17, 2013
June 17 (Gain $68.21)
Once again, out far too early. Shorted 500 TNA at $49.72 per share at 10:04 am. Exited fourteen minutes later at $49.56. The final low price of that move was $49.10; Sixty-two cents. I took only 16 cents.
I had four other trades that really didn't do much; two winners under $13 and two losers under $11.
I had four other trades that really didn't do much; two winners under $13 and two losers under $11.
Friday, June 14, 2013
June 14 ( Gain $26 )
One trade and it was a very good entry. Short the top of the 2:20 pm candle in TNA. Out FAR too early however. I had a great entry and the retest at the 2:35 candle did not reach my entry price, let alone threaten to stop me out. I had up to 35 cents of gain available to me, had I played it well. I really have to get over the anxiety related to staying comfortable in trades and trusting that I have made a good decision and trusting that my stop will provide the final insurance policy against large losses.
---------
Trained monkeys can learn to read charts with enough practice. Traders require mental prowess.
---------
Trained monkeys can learn to read charts with enough practice. Traders require mental prowess.
June 13 ($126 Gain)
Three trades, well executed at entry and all resulting in winners. All three were reversion to the mean trades against the prevailing upward direction and in all three cases, exits for gains were processed quickly.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
June 12 (Gain $131.02)
Back in the saddle today.
I took three live trades in TNA, all for winners but all three out too early. With a quick glance at the chart, it appears that I took less than half of what was available to me on those three winners.
I also took six practice trades with four available to take gains and two stopping out.
I haven't traded since my last post. I've been studying charts every day, however. My skill-set, my edge, seems to move ahead a little every week. As per usual, it is my mental game that needs the most honing.
I took three live trades in TNA, all for winners but all three out too early. With a quick glance at the chart, it appears that I took less than half of what was available to me on those three winners.
I also took six practice trades with four available to take gains and two stopping out.
I haven't traded since my last post. I've been studying charts every day, however. My skill-set, my edge, seems to move ahead a little every week. As per usual, it is my mental game that needs the most honing.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
May 28 (Gain $10.60)
A lot of distractions today but i still spent much of the day watching the action in TNA. Practice trading, I had a good trade idea for a short at $51.30 with a stop at $51.51 It would have yielded near $1.50 per share gain. Two other trade ideas would have stopped out; the last one a long at 51.40 at 3:15 pm stopping out by a cent at 3:25 pm before riding the last leg upward into the closing consolidation area. I evaluated it after the close and found that my stop idea was good but not well executed. I simply did not put the line where I intended it to go. But, stopped out is stopped out and can't be counted as a successful practice trade.
In between the two final practice trades was a live trade long, 500 shares TNA at $50.07 and 2:11pm. It didn't work out and I exited even; a Gain of $10.60
Price dropped another 27 cents before hitting one of the two primary reversal areas of the day. I was close to a successful trade but the timing was just a little early. And early is wrong, so I exited when I had the sense it was going to drop more than I wanted. And there's no better place than "out" when a trade idea does not work.
==========
Chart reading skills are pretty good but my three or four primary indicators are difficult to prioritize as price moves up and down through the day. They are reasonably reliable but often the one that seems to be best suited to the situation at hand is not the one that dictates the momentum. When I look at a chart at the end of the day, I often see obvious signs of direction change. While watching the live action, however, the familiar signal could be any one of four or more that work for me.
In between the two final practice trades was a live trade long, 500 shares TNA at $50.07 and 2:11pm. It didn't work out and I exited even; a Gain of $10.60
Price dropped another 27 cents before hitting one of the two primary reversal areas of the day. I was close to a successful trade but the timing was just a little early. And early is wrong, so I exited when I had the sense it was going to drop more than I wanted. And there's no better place than "out" when a trade idea does not work.
==========
Chart reading skills are pretty good but my three or four primary indicators are difficult to prioritize as price moves up and down through the day. They are reasonably reliable but often the one that seems to be best suited to the situation at hand is not the one that dictates the momentum. When I look at a chart at the end of the day, I often see obvious signs of direction change. While watching the live action, however, the familiar signal could be any one of four or more that work for me.
May 27 Memorial Day and markets closed
A blessing for all our bravest who have given their lives in the military service of these United States of America.
--
A grateful nation bows to your sacrifice.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
May 23 ($551.29 loss)
12:27 Exited the final 1000 shares of TZA that I held from yesterday. Loss of $551.29 I am now out of the debacle trade from yesterday. What a rotten experience to put myself through. This type of event is what turned me away from live trading and toward practice trading nearly 4 years ago. Sad commentary that I am still performing the same way after so long. The mental hurdle is exceptionally hard for me to get over. It makes no rational sense to me. It is not intellectual or based in reason, it is purely psychological / emotional.
Shares of TZA are rising now after my exit, so at least in the short term, it was a good place to get out. At one point, just after the open, I was down $1,800 on this position.
-----
I am taking some time to replenish my mental capital. Mrs. Bluecollar, who has a more free-spirited personality sat with me this morning for 2.5 hours and actually was up $350 in practice trading while I had only two stop-outs. We were practice trading GMCR, a nice momentum stock. She knows very little about trading except for the chart and momentum readings I was feeding her. My charting knowledge combined with her free, easy, relaxed demeanor was a positive combination. her gains came on one stop out and two winners.
-----
With Memorial Day market holiday coming, I am considering taking a four day weekend away from trading. Probably just going to watch and practice trade the rest of today and tomorrow, unless there is something incredibly compelling that would warrant real money on the line.
-----
3:35 Saw a great scalping trade in GMCR but refrained. I need to take some time to think about this whole episode. Will sit with the market tomorrow, then look forward to a long weekend away from the computer. Lots of yard work and maybe go to see the new Star Trek movie. Mentally, I need to elevate my state of being... and to just lighten up. It is not my personality, but it is necessary to be more flexible in my thinking while at the computer.
-----
3:35 Saw a great scalping trade in GMCR but refrained. I need to take some time to think about this whole episode. Will sit with the market tomorrow, then look forward to a long weekend away from the computer. Lots of yard work and maybe go to see the new Star Trek movie. Mentally, I need to elevate my state of being... and to just lighten up. It is not my personality, but it is necessary to be more flexible in my thinking while at the computer.
Re-post of an early April, 2012 post:
-from April 3, 2012:
The basic concept of trading, in my opinion.
One thing that has become clear to me over the 13 months that I have been practicing this full time: The more obvious the price and direction to enter or exit, the more likely it will be used by the most traders. And any spot where the most traders act is the spot where the successful ten percent of traders will prey upon those other 90% (I use the 90% and 10% because that is the success fail rate that is quoted by a study done years ago). TNA in this screen shot is a perfect example of what I see every hour of every day.
You will see an orange mark on the long down candle at 2:00 when the market drooped after The Ben Bernank opened his mouth. You can verify that it was there on earlier charts. This was the spot where my "Impulse Buy" was. Where my emotions were telling me to jump in against trend. You'll also note that in the next candle, price retraced to that very spot beofre resuming its deep descent. That is no coincidence. That was price retesting the "sucker's level." Then you'll see where I clicked to buy my practice trade in the 2:10 candle. There's no doubt that there were many many real-money traders who acted on the same impulse at this level. I am not a professional trader and therefore, consider myself a novice. The price action in relation to this entry spot is an example of the point I am trying to express. It dropped enough to stop me out, plus a few pennies more. That is no coincidence, just as it is no coincidence when it has happened so often before (see my many references to it over the past couple weeks). I and many other novice traders who got in long at this pretty good price were punked and stopped out by the sharks who REALLY know what they are doing. They are not trading spots on a chart. They are "Trading the Trader," as Quint Tatro explained in his enlightening book of the same name. To continue, if you look at the sixth, seventh, and eighth candles (2:40, 2:45 2:50 respectively) after the one I entered, you will see stock price aligning with my entry price as a focal point of its consolidation, especially the 2:50 candle that makes a near doji within a penny or two. This is no coincidence. It is clear that the masses of real money traders and me, the novice practice-trader, got in at this level.
-
All prices are a reflection of buying and selling, and buying and selling is a portrait of the intentional as well as emotion-driven impulses of the buyers and the sellers. And where the most people are compelled to act is where the other few people will exploit them...because human beings, like all the other animals that roam the earth, are creatures of habit and prone to be slaves to their basic emotions. Any habit can be gamed by the truly savvy and practiced few. They are the 10% who survive to become those who trade for a living.
-
Successful trading means knowing human psychology and seeing how it is represented through the price action on the charts by studying a moving market, for months and years until your eyes bleed. This will lead to learning the patterns of the 10%,while trying to manage and master one's own natural emotions that compel one to act with the 90% majority. This art of trading is really gamesmanship.
-
Therefore, it comes as no surprise that successful traders use psychologists, like Dr. Brett Steenbarger who left trading and blogging to work on staff at a major hedge fund. It is no surprise that successful traders learn to understand their own emotional makeup with tools such as yoga (Michael Martin, Steve Spencer, James Altucher), meditation (Michael Marcus, Scott Farnham aka Bankrobber), exercise (Mike Bellefiore), traditional religious faith and prayer (Quint Tatro, a Christian), hypnosis (Scott Farnham), writing trading thoughts and feelings on paper (Linda Bradford-Raschke). These people are but a few who used the various tools best known for focusing / centering the mind.
-
Jack Schwager is the author of one of the best known books about succesful traders and the exploration of what made them so; "Market Wizards" and his follow-up, "The New Market Wizards." In that follow up book, he wrote this: "Time and time again, those whom I interviewed for this book and its predecessor stressed the absolutely critical role of psychological elements in trading success. When asked to explain what was important to success, the market wizards never talked about indicators or techniques, but rather about such things as discipline, emotional control, patience, and mental attitude toward losing. The message is clear: the key to winning in the markets is internal, not external."
Re-post of March 27, 2012, outlining my method of training to accept losses...
-from March 27, 2012:
For today...
For today, I am going to enter my practice trades as usual. But, I am only going to exit them under two circumstances. 1) Stop loss..... 2) Less than 15 minutes to market close. That's it.
I had a lousy day of execution yesterday. I ended with a $159 gain in sim-trading but that is not the point. I had some good entries but exited early because of failure anxiety, leaving much gain on the table. Then, I entered my last trade of the day and instead of hitting my stop when it went against me, I held the losing trade. Unacceptable.
As mentioned previously many times, I have a fear of loss. I don't like the way failure feels. What a strange irony this is, that losing small with stop-outs is the key to success. After all this time, I still have difficulty getting my head around this concept. Intellectually, it is clear to me but emotionally, I can't deal with it. Fear of failure has driven my life since I was a child. It's hard to reprogram over 45 years of life in a few months. But, I will try and then try again. The one thing I hate worse than failure is quitting.
-
If it is failure I fear, then it is failure I will embrace. Mike Tyson said that "Everyone has a plan... 'til they get punched in the mouth." Well, this is where I see how much I can take while working my plan. Two ways to exit, stop outs and end of day. My goal is to put losses up on the board, even if there are obvious spots to exit for nice gains. This isn't about winning trades, it is about a search for and embrace of failure in hopes I can be familiar with and comfortable around it.
I will post the results end of day. Accountability might help my resolve.
I had a lousy day of execution yesterday. I ended with a $159 gain in sim-trading but that is not the point. I had some good entries but exited early because of failure anxiety, leaving much gain on the table. Then, I entered my last trade of the day and instead of hitting my stop when it went against me, I held the losing trade. Unacceptable.
As mentioned previously many times, I have a fear of loss. I don't like the way failure feels. What a strange irony this is, that losing small with stop-outs is the key to success. After all this time, I still have difficulty getting my head around this concept. Intellectually, it is clear to me but emotionally, I can't deal with it. Fear of failure has driven my life since I was a child. It's hard to reprogram over 45 years of life in a few months. But, I will try and then try again. The one thing I hate worse than failure is quitting.
-
If it is failure I fear, then it is failure I will embrace. Mike Tyson said that "Everyone has a plan... 'til they get punched in the mouth." Well, this is where I see how much I can take while working my plan. Two ways to exit, stop outs and end of day. My goal is to put losses up on the board, even if there are obvious spots to exit for nice gains. This isn't about winning trades, it is about a search for and embrace of failure in hopes I can be familiar with and comfortable around it.
I will post the results end of day. Accountability might help my resolve.
Re-post portions of two March 2012 posts describing how comfortable it was to accept losses...
-from March 28, 2012:
"I picked the right time of the day to work with TNA considering my goal to put up losing trades in order to learn to accept losses."
"Oddly, I felt very much at ease when my goal was not to win, but rather to lose. I can't help but wonder if that feeling is because I may have designed an exercise that really didn't test my fear because there was no expectation of winning when I placed the trade. That's how wierd it felt to have a trade on and not feel anxious about the outcome. It bears repeating: I'm not sure if the test was helpful or not because I am not sure I cared enough about trying to win! I have to continue this exercise for a number of days to see if I have found a way to trade without emotional discomfort or if I have set up a test where lack of concern about the eventual goal of winning trades has been abandoned. All I know is that it was a joy to click the mouse , stop out for small losses and react to it with the same concern as putting on a belt or walking through the frozen foods section at the supermarket."
"I picked the right time of the day to work with TNA considering my goal to put up losing trades in order to learn to accept losses."
"Oddly, I felt very much at ease when my goal was not to win, but rather to lose. I can't help but wonder if that feeling is because I may have designed an exercise that really didn't test my fear because there was no expectation of winning when I placed the trade. That's how wierd it felt to have a trade on and not feel anxious about the outcome. It bears repeating: I'm not sure if the test was helpful or not because I am not sure I cared enough about trying to win! I have to continue this exercise for a number of days to see if I have found a way to trade without emotional discomfort or if I have set up a test where lack of concern about the eventual goal of winning trades has been abandoned. All I know is that it was a joy to click the mouse , stop out for small losses and react to it with the same concern as putting on a belt or walking through the frozen foods section at the supermarket."
"Takeaway:
I must continue with this expect-to-lose exercise until I can get my head around the odd (lack of) feelings it generated yesterday. I have to figure out if my lack of concern is a breakthrough as to how to mentally approach live trading or if the absence of anxiety is more about being emotionally removed from the trades I'm placing such that it is only about clicking a mouse and not placing and managing actual risk. I think time will yield the explanation."
-from March 29, 2012:
-from March 29, 2012:
"Looking at the bright side:
1. I stopped out each trade faithfully which is the whole point of this exercise I am involved in.
2. My stop outs were in areas where my read of trend/momentum change was pretty good. It needs refinement... maybe some patience. I also MUST trade with trend as my first impulse as opposed to trading for reversals. My first two stops of the day would have been avoided had I done this. This is a perenial problem of mine.
Overall, I am happy with today. I am not joyful like yesterday, but I met my goal of exiting only by hitting stops or getting out in the last 15 mins of the session."
Re-Post of the day last year I decided to "throw caution to the wind" and trade correctly...
- from March 15, 2012:
Happy
I had a losing day today in sim-trading. Down $-241 on twelve trades. Only had 4 winners. The reason I'm happy is that all 8 losing trades were stop-outs. I didn't let a single one exceed the stop. In fact, between 2:30 and 4:00 pm, I had six out of eight practice trades end with stop losses. I closed the day with 4 straight losses.
In most of the losing trades, I had opportunities to scalp gains, one of them for 20 cents. But I am trying to hang in on my trades for bigger gains. Next to me on the wall is taped a sign that says, "Focus on Process, Not Results." I posted a photo of it on the blog not long ago. What doesn't show in the photo is what is written below it... "Exit only on Stop Outs, Volume spikes in winning trades, or at the Market Close." And that has been where I am trying to put my efforts. For now, I am trying to avoid using my intuition for exiting a stock. This has frequently been at my own peril, as it was today. Many times I had a feeling that I was on the wrong path... but I held firm and didn't exit. I'm focusing on process, not wins and losses. It's training to combat anxieties associated with Relief-Exiting and avoiding stop losses. And it's working to some degree... as the number of stop out losses mounted, I was silently coaching myself to relax, focus on process, stay in the moment; no worries about what came before and don't anticipate the future. Only think about my stop line, the one thing I can control. And it was working... In the 3 years I've been messing with the market, I've never taken more than 3 stops in a row before my resolve weakened. Before last week, I had only done two in a row before folding up and letting my stops lapse. I am getting stronger through my losses. I am always in danger of relapse, that's my personality. For now, I just get in the trade and say, "One Trade at a Time."
Where else do I need improvement based on today and virtually every other day I've done this? 11 of the 12 trades I attempted were counter-trend trades (reversal trades). This has been my bias since I began trying to learn this craft. The one trade I attempted in the direction of the overall upward trend of the day was a winner. On range days, I am in my comfort zone and my momentum reads are highly accurate. On trend days, I get slammed; punished by the uni-directional market. When reversal trades don't materialize for me, I cannot seem to surrender to the market, exit, and re-enter in the direction of the momentum. I am stubborn in my intent to be correct and it shows on days like today. It is just another way for my personality to not accept losing, just like my difficulties with taking stop losses.
I have a long way to go before I am ready to trade my live account again. But for today, I am happy with my discipline; the focus on process instead of results. Tomorrow is a new day. One trade at a time. One day at a time.
In most of the losing trades, I had opportunities to scalp gains, one of them for 20 cents. But I am trying to hang in on my trades for bigger gains. Next to me on the wall is taped a sign that says, "Focus on Process, Not Results." I posted a photo of it on the blog not long ago. What doesn't show in the photo is what is written below it... "Exit only on Stop Outs, Volume spikes in winning trades, or at the Market Close." And that has been where I am trying to put my efforts. For now, I am trying to avoid using my intuition for exiting a stock. This has frequently been at my own peril, as it was today. Many times I had a feeling that I was on the wrong path... but I held firm and didn't exit. I'm focusing on process, not wins and losses. It's training to combat anxieties associated with Relief-Exiting and avoiding stop losses. And it's working to some degree... as the number of stop out losses mounted, I was silently coaching myself to relax, focus on process, stay in the moment; no worries about what came before and don't anticipate the future. Only think about my stop line, the one thing I can control. And it was working... In the 3 years I've been messing with the market, I've never taken more than 3 stops in a row before my resolve weakened. Before last week, I had only done two in a row before folding up and letting my stops lapse. I am getting stronger through my losses. I am always in danger of relapse, that's my personality. For now, I just get in the trade and say, "One Trade at a Time."
Where else do I need improvement based on today and virtually every other day I've done this? 11 of the 12 trades I attempted were counter-trend trades (reversal trades). This has been my bias since I began trying to learn this craft. The one trade I attempted in the direction of the overall upward trend of the day was a winner. On range days, I am in my comfort zone and my momentum reads are highly accurate. On trend days, I get slammed; punished by the uni-directional market. When reversal trades don't materialize for me, I cannot seem to surrender to the market, exit, and re-enter in the direction of the momentum. I am stubborn in my intent to be correct and it shows on days like today. It is just another way for my personality to not accept losing, just like my difficulties with taking stop losses.
I have a long way to go before I am ready to trade my live account again. But for today, I am happy with my discipline; the focus on process instead of results. Tomorrow is a new day. One trade at a time. One day at a time.
A re-post from Feb 1, 2012
Trading is mental
Having read and re-read Michael Martin's "The Inner Voice of Trading" over the past month, I am finding some relief when it comes to the self awareness necessary to be a successful trader.
I have taken to spending quiet time reflecting on the WHY that compels me to make bad trading decisions and where they truly originate. I reinstituted exercise into my day by walking about two to two and a half miles per day back in early November and moved to the treadmill in the cellar after the Maine winter arrived. With bad knees, I can no longer run, so I stick to walking and it gives me time to relax and think about the WHY. I've thrown in some strength training over the past two weeks and I feel better for it. Mostly, I am in this for mental dialysis and exercise second. Thirdly, my ability to stick to the regimen will reflect whether or not I have achieved the same discipline necessary to stick to proper trading fundamentals. Mrs. Bluecollar bought me two relaxation CD's that encorporate breathing exercises, muscle relaxation, positive affirmations, and calming music. I play them while I use the treadmill and am now in my second day of it. It is true that anxiety, stress, and fear are near the top of the list of reasons for trader failure.
As part of this whole thing, I am digging deep into my past and evaluating my life and the influence of those with whom I've encountered and the impressions that were left on me as a result.
I have also picked out some articles from Dr Andrew Menaker's blog at his website as part of my quest to become a trader: http://www.andrewmenaker.com/
I hope you get something from this one from March 29, 2011 entitled "Handling Uncertainty."
Handling Uncertainty
March 29th, 2011
Everyone talks about uncertainty, and many of you realize that the only thing that is certain in trading is uncertainty. The problem is that most people understand it on an intellectual level (“yeah, I think in probabilities”), but in reality, where the rubber meets the road, most traders don’t really accept uncertainty.
How do you know when you’ve truly accepted uncertainty? You’ll know, when you’ve embraced the randomness of probability (each trade or individual data point is a unique occurrence with a 50/50 chance, even in a skewed probability distribution). When you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you’ll notice one of or more of the following also occur; you won’t be thinking or worrying about it as much, you won’t be doing as much ‘mental P&L accounting’; and the symptoms of tick-itis will also remit.
I coach clients to not be attached to the outcome as one particular strategy to deal with uncertainty. And the good news is that when you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you also begin to create a positive feedback loop where realizing that its not worth being emotionally attached to any one trade, or even a series of trades; making it even easier to embrace the uncertainty. Non-attachment to outcomes helps one deal with uncertainty, and embracing uncertainty reinforces non-attachment to outcomes. That’s how it works, folks.
Think about this question for a moment:
When you put money in a slot machine and you lose, how do you feel? Most people don’t feel that bad. But when you bet your money on a trade and you lose, how do you feel? Most traders say they feel upset, angry, frustrated, ripped-off, even betrayed (betrayed by the market, betrayed by their method, or betrayed by the person who taught them the method).
So, what’s the difference between the slot machine and trading? In slots, there is no judgment or ego involved (the need to be right is greatly diminished). However, in trading it is 100% judgment (you might be ‘wrong’). In a trade, our ego, our judgment, our sense of self-worth and even our personal status in the eyes of others (e.g. trading partners, family, etc.) is susceptible to feeling assaulted for each tick away from our intended target. But in slots we become a robot. Go to a casino and walk by the slot machines; everyone is glazed over, practically in a hypnotic state as they automatically (brainlessly as my wife puts it) dump more coins into the machine, pressing the lever and not getting very upset for lack of a pay-out. No judgment is on the line, there is no possibility of being wrong….the slot player recognizes the situation for what it is, pure unadulterated randomness.
Trading is not random, but you must fully accept, beyond intellectual understanding, the randomness of probability.
I have taken to spending quiet time reflecting on the WHY that compels me to make bad trading decisions and where they truly originate. I reinstituted exercise into my day by walking about two to two and a half miles per day back in early November and moved to the treadmill in the cellar after the Maine winter arrived. With bad knees, I can no longer run, so I stick to walking and it gives me time to relax and think about the WHY. I've thrown in some strength training over the past two weeks and I feel better for it. Mostly, I am in this for mental dialysis and exercise second. Thirdly, my ability to stick to the regimen will reflect whether or not I have achieved the same discipline necessary to stick to proper trading fundamentals. Mrs. Bluecollar bought me two relaxation CD's that encorporate breathing exercises, muscle relaxation, positive affirmations, and calming music. I play them while I use the treadmill and am now in my second day of it. It is true that anxiety, stress, and fear are near the top of the list of reasons for trader failure.
As part of this whole thing, I am digging deep into my past and evaluating my life and the influence of those with whom I've encountered and the impressions that were left on me as a result.
I have also picked out some articles from Dr Andrew Menaker's blog at his website as part of my quest to become a trader: http://www.andrewmenaker.com/
I hope you get something from this one from March 29, 2011 entitled "Handling Uncertainty."
Handling Uncertainty
March 29th, 2011
Everyone talks about uncertainty, and many of you realize that the only thing that is certain in trading is uncertainty. The problem is that most people understand it on an intellectual level (“yeah, I think in probabilities”), but in reality, where the rubber meets the road, most traders don’t really accept uncertainty.
How do you know when you’ve truly accepted uncertainty? You’ll know, when you’ve embraced the randomness of probability (each trade or individual data point is a unique occurrence with a 50/50 chance, even in a skewed probability distribution). When you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you’ll notice one of or more of the following also occur; you won’t be thinking or worrying about it as much, you won’t be doing as much ‘mental P&L accounting’; and the symptoms of tick-itis will also remit.
I coach clients to not be attached to the outcome as one particular strategy to deal with uncertainty. And the good news is that when you begin to truly embrace uncertainty you also begin to create a positive feedback loop where realizing that its not worth being emotionally attached to any one trade, or even a series of trades; making it even easier to embrace the uncertainty. Non-attachment to outcomes helps one deal with uncertainty, and embracing uncertainty reinforces non-attachment to outcomes. That’s how it works, folks.
Think about this question for a moment:
When you put money in a slot machine and you lose, how do you feel? Most people don’t feel that bad. But when you bet your money on a trade and you lose, how do you feel? Most traders say they feel upset, angry, frustrated, ripped-off, even betrayed (betrayed by the market, betrayed by their method, or betrayed by the person who taught them the method).
So, what’s the difference between the slot machine and trading? In slots, there is no judgment or ego involved (the need to be right is greatly diminished). However, in trading it is 100% judgment (you might be ‘wrong’). In a trade, our ego, our judgment, our sense of self-worth and even our personal status in the eyes of others (e.g. trading partners, family, etc.) is susceptible to feeling assaulted for each tick away from our intended target. But in slots we become a robot. Go to a casino and walk by the slot machines; everyone is glazed over, practically in a hypnotic state as they automatically (brainlessly as my wife puts it) dump more coins into the machine, pressing the lever and not getting very upset for lack of a pay-out. No judgment is on the line, there is no possibility of being wrong….the slot player recognizes the situation for what it is, pure unadulterated randomness.
Trading is not random, but you must fully accept, beyond intellectual understanding, the randomness of probability.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
May 22 ($1,117.21 Loss)
10:33 The market soared and it gave me a great opportunity to improve my TZA swing trade. I bought 1500 shares long TNA at 10:14 am at a price of $29.59. I really nailed the entry, just a few pennies from the bottom of the big move down. Added to my 200 shares long, I had a total 1700 shares long at $29.75. I sold off 500 shares of risk for a $10.59 loss. Then holding, I dumped the other 1200 shares at 29.80 for a gain of $65.99. Far too early, but I will take my gains when I can, given how my original TZA position went against me this morning. That market gave me a good chance to exit and I took it quickly and willingly. had I held the 1200 shares, I had up to about 47 cents of total gain; approximately $565.
===========
3:48 I am still very much a prisoner to emotion. Today has been particularly difficult for me as my compulsion to play for mean reversion has resulted in a bad loss. I am essentially back to where I started a few months ago, having lost my gains and back to breakeven. Not at all where I hoped to be, given that I am at a point where I really need to have gains from trading to sustain our household. After all this time, and all that i know about chart reading, it is mental/emotional short-comings that are an anchor to my progression. I took a number of 'practice trades' where I would mark the chart in the direction of momentum. Every one of them was a winner. Instead of taking the trade, I waited until I found an area that looked as though a direction change was to occur, and on a big momentum day, the change doesn't come. And today, I added to a loser trade and got punished for it. I know better. I know that doing that very thing, as I've mentioned on this blog, is what strong market players feast upon. That the only protection from the sharks is to stop out. And I didn't. This is purely emotional. Either fear or greed; one or the other. It appears that I'll finish the day with a loss of $1,117.21.
Something must change for me to continue. I am not a fool. But I am imprisoned by a psychological wall. They are two different things. But they will be synonymous and yield the same disastrous results if a change isn't made and I keep on the way I am going.
---------
The approach I am taking to trading, fading strong moves with an eye toward reversion to the mean, is a very stressful way to do this. Always looking for a direction change means always being uneasy; in a state of flux. And not stopping out a trade is incredibly stressful, depleting one's emotional capital. It relegates one to always playing from behind. It does not allow the sense of success to offset the sense of disappointment from the losing trades that always happen. It is always trading with anxiety. It is incredibly wearing on the psyche, even when it is going well. Like parachuting with no backup chute or walking a tightrope with no net below, only the most hardened non-feeling individuals (sociopaths?) can resist the chipping away at one's emotional capital.
---------
Last year, while still practice trading, I had hit the wall as I have today and decided to throw caution to the wind, so to speak. As strange and anti-intellectual as it sounds this involved setting and adhering to stops and not exiting trades except as a stop-out or within 15 minutes of the end of the trading day. Weird, it seemed to me. And it resulted in a great relief; a sense of 'comfort' that I had not felt before. And I achieved some success while doing it. Gains were of a size I had not seen since attempting to learn trading. At that time, I still needed work in chart reading, so my stop outs were adding up more than I liked, but I was ahead while trading the way it is supposed to be done. In other words, on the right path to success. What happened to change it is something I don't know. It was a slow drift away. Like an alcoholic taking just one sip of beer after having found sobriety. One little drink after a year then becomes two drinks per week then a drink every other day, then...
The power of the mind to fall back into bad habits is legendary. We all know people who cannot help themselves even when the answers seem so obvious... and easy for us. I have to get back to that mental place where I was last year that sent me to try and briefly succeed in trading the right way. Otherwise, I will have to give up on my dream.
----------
===========
3:48 I am still very much a prisoner to emotion. Today has been particularly difficult for me as my compulsion to play for mean reversion has resulted in a bad loss. I am essentially back to where I started a few months ago, having lost my gains and back to breakeven. Not at all where I hoped to be, given that I am at a point where I really need to have gains from trading to sustain our household. After all this time, and all that i know about chart reading, it is mental/emotional short-comings that are an anchor to my progression. I took a number of 'practice trades' where I would mark the chart in the direction of momentum. Every one of them was a winner. Instead of taking the trade, I waited until I found an area that looked as though a direction change was to occur, and on a big momentum day, the change doesn't come. And today, I added to a loser trade and got punished for it. I know better. I know that doing that very thing, as I've mentioned on this blog, is what strong market players feast upon. That the only protection from the sharks is to stop out. And I didn't. This is purely emotional. Either fear or greed; one or the other. It appears that I'll finish the day with a loss of $1,117.21.
Something must change for me to continue. I am not a fool. But I am imprisoned by a psychological wall. They are two different things. But they will be synonymous and yield the same disastrous results if a change isn't made and I keep on the way I am going.
---------
The approach I am taking to trading, fading strong moves with an eye toward reversion to the mean, is a very stressful way to do this. Always looking for a direction change means always being uneasy; in a state of flux. And not stopping out a trade is incredibly stressful, depleting one's emotional capital. It relegates one to always playing from behind. It does not allow the sense of success to offset the sense of disappointment from the losing trades that always happen. It is always trading with anxiety. It is incredibly wearing on the psyche, even when it is going well. Like parachuting with no backup chute or walking a tightrope with no net below, only the most hardened non-feeling individuals (sociopaths?) can resist the chipping away at one's emotional capital.
---------
Last year, while still practice trading, I had hit the wall as I have today and decided to throw caution to the wind, so to speak. As strange and anti-intellectual as it sounds this involved setting and adhering to stops and not exiting trades except as a stop-out or within 15 minutes of the end of the trading day. Weird, it seemed to me. And it resulted in a great relief; a sense of 'comfort' that I had not felt before. And I achieved some success while doing it. Gains were of a size I had not seen since attempting to learn trading. At that time, I still needed work in chart reading, so my stop outs were adding up more than I liked, but I was ahead while trading the way it is supposed to be done. In other words, on the right path to success. What happened to change it is something I don't know. It was a slow drift away. Like an alcoholic taking just one sip of beer after having found sobriety. One little drink after a year then becomes two drinks per week then a drink every other day, then...
The power of the mind to fall back into bad habits is legendary. We all know people who cannot help themselves even when the answers seem so obvious... and easy for us. I have to get back to that mental place where I was last year that sent me to try and briefly succeed in trading the right way. Otherwise, I will have to give up on my dream.
----------
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)